---
title: "Exotic case on Skin.club: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Exotic ($3.97) on Skin.club, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.50% from 26 items with odds, observed 94.23% over 16.3K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/exotic
rendered: 2026-11-12T01:27Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Skin.club](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinclub) / [Exotic](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/exotic)

# [Skin.club](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinclub) · Exotic

A case on Skin.club (Our Special), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/exotic?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/exotic?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/exotic) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/exotic?window=all)

Price · $3.97

Advertised RTP · 92.50% · EV $3.67 from 26 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 94.23% · 16.3K openings, odds method

Variance · 11.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 27 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 93.53% ±12.40 2,772 openings

7 days · 94.53% ±4.91 13.2K openings

30 days · 94.23% ±4.31 16.3K openings

since tracking started · 94.23% ±4.31 16.3K openings

80.5% 93.5% 106.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/exotic?window=24h) | 2,772 | 93.53% ±12.4 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/exotic?window=7d) | 13.2K | 94.53% ±4.91 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/exotic) | 16.3K | 94.23% ±4.31 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/exotic?window=all) | 16.3K | 94.23% ±4.31 | +0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 26 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16.3K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $669 | 1.8% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.23× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-leet-museo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,220 | $158 | 3.5% | 15 | 13.4 | 1.12× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 1,220 | $137 | 3.1% | 28 | 13.4 | 2.09× |
| [Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wasteland-rebel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 556 | $111 | 5.4% | 116 | 29.3 | 3.95× |
| [M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 476 | $68.51 | 3.9% | 55 | 34.2 | 1.61× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 476 | $61.30 | 3.5% | 69 | 34.2 | 2.02× |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-minimal-wear) | 1 in 417 | $55.93 | 3.7% | 61 | 39.1 | 1.56× |
| [AWP \| Redline (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-minimal-wear) | 1 in 196 | $54.64 | 7.6% | 88 | 83.1 | 1.06× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 152 | $42.14 | 7.6% | 205 | 107.6 | 1.91× |
| [AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 130 | $35.88 | 7.5% | 212 | 125.5 | 1.69× |
| [AWP \| Electric Hive (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-field-tested) | 1 in 130 | $27.73 | 5.8% | 180 | 125.5 | 1.43× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-minimal-wear) | 1 in 130 | $27.62 | 5.8% | 173 | 125.5 | 1.38× |
| [UMP-45 \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 130 | $16.55 | 3.5% | 173 | 125.5 | 1.38× |
| [AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 83 | $14.16 | 4.6% | 313 | 195.6 | 1.60× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $12.68 | 5.2% | 491 | 244.5 | 2.01× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $12.03 | 6.6% | 395 | 326.1 | 1.21× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $3.71 | 3.1% | 877 | 505.4 | 1.74× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-well-worn) | 1 in 29 | $3.61 | 3.3% | 789 | 554.3 | 1.42× |
| [USP-S \| Torque (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $1.74 | 2.1% | 1,168 | 733.6 | 1.59× |
| [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $1.33 | 2.6% | 1,738 | 1157.5 | 1.50× |
| [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-red-astor-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $1.18 | 2.4% | 485 | 1228.6 | 0.39× |
| [Glock-18 \| Catacombs (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-catacombs-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.81 | 1.7% | 2,018 | 1255.3 | 1.61× |
| [Glock-18 \| Ironwork (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ironwork-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.76 | 1.6% | 478 | 1255.3 | 0.38× |
| [M249 \| Spectre (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-spectre-field-tested) | 14.5% | $0.47 | 1.9% | 2,436 | 2363.9 | 1.03× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-oxide-blaze-field-tested) | 15.0% | $0.40 | 1.6% | 2,498 | 2445.4 | 1.02× |
| [MP9 \| Black Sand (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-well-worn) | 19.5% | $0.11 | 0.6% | 1,240 | 3179.1 | 0.39× |

Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `skinclub:apiv2/cases/exotic`, 11 Nov, 20:47 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Karambit | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-battle-scarred) Hidden $7.78 $663 85.16x 2026-11-07 23:41 UTC

[★ Karambit | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-battle-scarred) [2ARP](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/2ARP) $7.72 $652 84.39x 2026-11-04 09:13 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=skinclub&case=exotic)

[AWP | Electric Hive (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-field-tested) [Fletsch](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Fletsch) $3.97 $27.87 7.02x 2026-11-12 01:25 UTC

[MP9 | Black Sand (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-well-worn) Hidden $3.98 $0.11 0.03x 2026-11-12 01:09 UTC

[M249 | Spectre (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-spectre-field-tested) Hidden $3.98 $0.46 0.12x 2026-11-12 01:09 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-oxide-blaze-field-tested) Hidden $3.98 $0.41 0.10x 2026-11-12 01:09 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Xiangliu (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-field-tested) [Bokii\_86](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Bokii_86) $3.98 $12.02 3.02x 2026-11-12 01:09 UTC

[USP-S | Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) Hidden $3.98 $3.65 0.92x 2026-11-12 01:09 UTC

[M249 | Spectre (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-spectre-field-tested) Hidden $3.98 $0.46 0.12x 2026-11-12 01:09 UTC

[Glock-18 | Catacombs (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-catacombs-field-tested) Hidden $3.98 $0.81 0.20x 2026-11-12 01:09 UTC

[USP-S | Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) [Bokii\_86](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Bokii_86) $3.98 $3.65 0.92x 2026-11-12 01:09 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-oxide-blaze-field-tested) Hidden $3.98 $0.41 0.10x 2026-11-12 01:09 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 20:47 UTC | $3.97 | 92.50% | 26 |
| 11 Nov, 14:43 UTC | $3.94 | 92.52% | 26 |
| 11 Nov, 08:39 UTC | $3.95 | 92.54% | 26 |
| 11 Nov, 02:35 UTC | $3.96 | 92.46% | 26 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $3.94 | 92.59% | 26 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $3.95 | 92.46% | 26 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $3.96 | 92.53% | 26 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $3.97 | 92.51% | 26 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $7.72 | 92.50% | 23 |
| 9 Nov, 14:11 UTC | $7.78 | 92.50% | 23 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $7.76 | 92.51% | 23 |
| 9 Nov, 01:54 UTC | $7.76 | 92.56% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 23:40 UTC | $7.77 | 92.53% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 17:36 UTC | $7.78 | 92.53% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 11:31 UTC | $7.78 | 92.54% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 05:27 UTC | $7.76 | 92.52% | 23 |
| 7 Nov, 23:23 UTC | $7.78 | 92.54% | 23 |
| 7 Nov, 17:19 UTC | $7.80 | 92.47% | 23 |
| 7 Nov, 11:15 UTC | $7.80 | 92.49% | 23 |
| 7 Nov, 05:10 UTC | $7.74 | 92.49% | 23 |
| 6 Nov, 23:06 UTC | $7.76 | 92.54% | 23 |
| 6 Nov, 17:02 UTC | $7.76 | 92.51% | 23 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $7.81 | 92.45% | 23 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $7.73 | 92.55% | 23 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $7.73 | 92.45% | 23 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $7.75 | 92.50% | 23 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $7.73 | 92.55% | 23 |
| 5 Nov, 04:38 UTC | $7.74 | 92.46% | 23 |
| 4 Nov, 22:34 UTC | $7.70 | 92.47% | 23 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $7.70 | 92.47% | 23 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 15.0% covert 1.3% restricted 5.8% classified 5.9% mil spec 27.6% Legendary 2.0% Restricted 7.5% Rare 7.7% #4b69ff 27.2% best hit $663 (85.16x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.50 on average: an expected loss of $7.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt