---
title: "Fade Battle case on Skin.club: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Fade Battle ($24.36) on Skin.club, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.48% from 29 items with odds, observed 92.05% over 67.1K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/fade-battle
rendered: 2026-11-12T05:29Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Skin.club](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinclub) / [Fade Battle](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/fade-battle)

# [Skin.club](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinclub) · Fade Battle

A case on Skin.club (Battle cases), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/fade-battle?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/fade-battle?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/fade-battle) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/fade-battle?window=all)

Price · $24.36

Advertised RTP · 92.48% · EV $22.53 from 29 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 92.05% · 67.1K openings, odds method

Variance · 9.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 22 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 85.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 86.95% ±6.74 7,750 openings

7 days · 92.65% ±2.69 49.3K openings

30 days · 92.05% ±2.30 67.1K openings

since tracking started · 92.05% ±2.30 67.1K openings

79.5% 87.8% 96.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/fade-battle?window=24h) | 7,750 | 86.95% ±6.74 | −1.6σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/fade-battle?window=7d) | 49.3K | 92.65% ±2.69 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/fade-battle) | 67.1K | 92.05% ±2.30 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/fade-battle?window=all) | 67.1K | 92.05% ±2.30 | −0.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 67.1K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,372 | 1.1% | 3 | 6.7 | 0.45× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,122 | 0.9% | 8 | 6.7 | 1.19× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,471 | 0.7% | 14 | 6.7 | 2.09× |
| [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,277 | 1.1% | 9 | 13.4 | 0.67× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $953 | 1.3% | 21 | 20.1 | 1.04× |
| [AWP \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,500 | $907 | 1.6% | 28 | 26.8 | 1.04× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,429 | $562 | 1.7% | 49 | 47.0 | 1.04× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 769 | $434 | 2.5% | 88 | 87.2 | 1.01× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 526 | $358 | 3.0% | 116 | 127.5 | 0.91× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $340 | 3.0% | 133 | 134.2 | 0.99× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 435 | $313 | 3.2% | 171 | 154.4 | 1.11× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 400 | $307 | 3.4% | 154 | 167.8 | 0.92× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nomad-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 385 | $296 | 3.4% | 186 | 174.5 | 1.07× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 370 | $292 | 3.5% | 189 | 181.2 | 1.04× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 370 | $291 | 3.5% | 161 | 181.2 | 0.89× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 345 | $273 | 3.5% | 177 | 194.6 | 0.91× |
| [UMP-45 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 227 | $188 | 3.7% | 320 | 295.3 | 1.08× |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 192 | $187 | 4.3% | 344 | 349.0 | 0.99× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 185 | $171 | 4.1% | 340 | 362.4 | 0.94× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 123 | $139 | 5.0% | 555 | 543.6 | 1.02× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 123 | $134 | 4.8% | 503 | 543.6 | 0.93× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 112 | $132 | 5.2% | 575 | 597.3 | 0.96× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 110 | $122 | 4.9% | 593 | 610.7 | 0.97× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-battle-scarred) | 1 in 91 | $112 | 5.5% | 745 | 738.2 | 1.01× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 83 | $95.65 | 5.1% | 833 | 805.3 | 1.03× |
| [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Fade (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 56 | $82.18 | 6.6% | 1,264 | 1208.0 | 1.05× |
| [MAC-10 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 34 | $35.67 | 4.7% | 2,021 | 1986.4 | 1.02× |
| [MP7 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-factory-new) | 11.5% | $10.42 | 5.3% | 7,559 | 7717.5 | 0.98× |
| [Sticker \| Fade Lethal sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fade-lethal) | 74.2% | $1.03 | 3.4% | 49,950 | 49821.7 | 1.00× |

Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `skinclub:apiv2/cases/fade-battle`, 12 Nov, 02:51 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Karambit | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-minimal-wear) [JoeMan](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/JoeMan) $24.46 $2,468 100.9x 2026-11-09 19:32 UTC

[★ Karambit | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-minimal-wear) [Marlen](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Marlen) $24.53 $2,379 96.98x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC

[★ Karambit | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-minimal-wear) [UNKNOWN OREO](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/UNKNOWN%20OREO) $25.03 $2,362 94.38x 2026-11-04 01:23 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) [Suddendeath21](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Suddendeath21) $24.83 $2,247 90.50x 2026-11-08 07:14 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $24.57 $2,204 89.71x 2026-11-06 11:42 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $25.03 $2,175 86.90x 2026-11-04 00:41 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) [ev1l](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/ev1l) $24.59 $2,172 88.31x 2026-11-05 20:28 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $24.58 $2,172 88.34x 2026-11-05 16:45 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $24.50 $2,166 88.39x 2026-11-05 04:52 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) [karpiuu](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/karpiuu) $24.51 $2,141 87.36x 2026-11-10 18:24 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=skinclub&case=fade-battle)

[Sticker | Fade Lethal sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fade-lethal) Hidden $24.21 $0.78 0.03x 2026-11-12 05:24 UTC

[MAC-10 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-fade-factory-new) [DUO](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/DUO) $24.21 $35.82 1.48x 2026-11-12 05:24 UTC

[Sticker | Fade Lethal sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fade-lethal) Hidden $24.21 $0.78 0.03x 2026-11-12 05:24 UTC

[Sticker | Fade Lethal sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fade-lethal) Hidden $24.21 $0.78 0.03x 2026-11-12 05:24 UTC

[Sticker | Fade Lethal sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fade-lethal) Hidden $24.21 $0.78 0.03x 2026-11-12 05:24 UTC

[Sticker | Fade Lethal sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fade-lethal) [DUO](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/DUO) $24.21 $0.78 0.03x 2026-11-12 05:24 UTC

[Sticker | Fade Lethal sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fade-lethal) Hidden $24.21 $0.78 0.03x 2026-11-12 05:24 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $24.21 $132 5.46x 2026-11-12 05:24 UTC

[Sticker | Fade Lethal sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fade-lethal) Hidden $24.21 $0.78 0.03x 2026-11-12 05:19 UTC

[Sticker | Fade Lethal sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fade-lethal) Hidden $24.21 $0.78 0.03x 2026-11-12 05:19 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 12 Nov, 02:51 UTC | $24.36 | 92.48% | 29 |
| 11 Nov, 20:47 UTC | $24.51 | 92.49% | 29 |
| 11 Nov, 14:43 UTC | $24.53 | 92.51% | 29 |
| 11 Nov, 08:39 UTC | $24.47 | 92.50% | 29 |
| 11 Nov, 02:35 UTC | $24.44 | 92.51% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $24.45 | 92.50% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $24.47 | 92.50% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $24.51 | 92.52% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $24.45 | 92.50% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $24.46 | 92.49% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 14:11 UTC | $24.57 | 92.48% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $24.78 | 92.51% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 01:54 UTC | $24.76 | 92.51% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 23:40 UTC | $24.80 | 92.48% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 17:36 UTC | $24.78 | 92.51% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 11:31 UTC | $24.90 | 92.51% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 05:27 UTC | $24.81 | 92.48% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 23:23 UTC | $24.79 | 92.51% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 17:19 UTC | $24.80 | 92.49% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 11:15 UTC | $24.86 | 92.51% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 05:10 UTC | $24.78 | 92.52% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 23:06 UTC | $24.72 | 92.49% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 17:02 UTC | $24.63 | 92.49% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $24.59 | 92.51% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $24.46 | 92.52% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $24.59 | 92.50% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $24.58 | 92.48% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $24.49 | 92.49% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 04:38 UTC | $24.50 | 92.49% | 29 |
| 4 Nov, 22:34 UTC | $24.46 | 92.48% | 29 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed epic 1.4% covert 5.8% restricted 11.5% legendary 0.1% Immortal 0.7% classified 0.4% extraordinary 1.1% Ancient 1.8% mil spec 3.0% high 74.2% best hit $2,468 (100.9x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.48 on average: an expected loss of $7.52 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt