---
title: "Fever case on Skin.club: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Fever ($1.51) on Skin.club, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.19% from 38 items with odds, observed 89.90% over 28.5K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/fever-case
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:59Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Skin.club](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinclub) / [Fever](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/fever-case)

# [Skin.club](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinclub) · Fever

A case on Skin.club (Classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/fever-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/fever-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/fever-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/fever-case?window=all)

Price · $1.51

Advertised RTP · 92.19% · EV $1.39 from 38 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.90% · 28.5K openings, odds method

Variance · 7.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 10.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 83.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 93.10% ±9.60 3,170 openings

7 days · 90.65% ±3.54 24K openings

30 days · 89.90% ±3.25 28.5K openings

since tracking started · 89.90% ±3.25 28.5K openings

83.0% 93.2% 103.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/fever-case?window=24h) | 3,170 | 93.10% ±9.60 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/fever-case?window=7d) | 24K | 90.65% ±3.54 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/fever-case) | 28.5K | 89.90% ±3.25 | −1.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/fever-case?window=all) | 28.5K | 89.90% ±3.25 | −1.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 28.8K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $122 | 1.7% | 7 | 5.8 | 1.22× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $103 | 1.5% | 4 | 5.8 | 0.69× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $65.48 | 1.4% | 8 | 8.6 | 0.93× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,500 | $62.27 | 1.8% | 12 | 11.5 | 1.04× |
| [FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $48.81 | 1.8% | 9 | 14.4 | 0.63× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $44.47 | 1.6% | 9 | 14.4 | 0.63× |
| [FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $44.42 | 1.6% | 12 | 14.4 | 0.83× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,000 | $42.85 | 1.5% | 18 | 14.4 | 1.25× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,250 | $42.72 | 2.5% | 22 | 23.0 | 0.96× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,667 | $41.85 | 1.8% | 12 | 17.3 | 0.69× |
| [Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $22.85 | 1.6% | 37 | 28.8 | 1.29× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-factory-new) | 1 in 625 | $21.82 | 2.5% | 31 | 46.1 | 0.67× |
| [UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-factory-new) | 1 in 370 | $12.99 | 2.5% | 81 | 77.7 | 1.04× |
| [Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-minimal-wear) | 1 in 270 | $7.72 | 2.1% | 106 | 106.5 | 1.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $6.93 | 2.0% | 117 | 115.1 | 1.02× |
| [UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-minimal-wear) | 1 in 182 | $5.69 | 2.2% | 142 | 158.3 | 0.90× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-field-tested) | 1 in 63 | $4.77 | 5.5% | 571 | 460.5 | 1.24× |
| [Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $4.76 | 6.8% | 562 | 575.7 | 0.98× |
| [UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $4.76 | 6.8% | 566 | 575.7 | 0.98× |
| [Galil AR \| Control (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-control-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $2.94 | 5.3% | 603 | 719.6 | 0.84× |
| [Nova \| Rising Sun (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rising-sun-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $2.94 | 4.2% | 634 | 575.7 | 1.10× |
| [P90 \| Wave Breaker (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-wave-breaker-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $2.75 | 4.0% | 561 | 575.7 | 0.97× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-serpent-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $1.52 | 2.7% | 711 | 719.6 | 0.99× |
| [M4A4 \| Choppa (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $1.16 | 2.9% | 999 | 1007.4 | 0.99× |
| [SSG 08 \| Memorial (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-memorial-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.98 | 2.8% | 1,136 | 1151.4 | 0.99× |
| [USP-S \| PC-GRN (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.92 | 2.6% | 1,185 | 1151.4 | 1.03× |
| [Nova \| Rising Sun (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rising-sun-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.91 | 2.6% | 1,314 | 1151.4 | 1.14× |
| [Galil AR \| Control (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-control-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.81 | 2.3% | 1,198 | 1151.4 | 1.04× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-serpent-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $0.75 | 2.7% | 1,422 | 1439.2 | 0.99× |
| [MP9 \| Nexus (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-nexus-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $0.64 | 2.3% | 1,460 | 1439.2 | 1.01× |
| [XM1014 \| Mockingbird (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-mockingbird-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $0.61 | 2.2% | 1,235 | 1439.2 | 0.86× |
| [P2000 \| Sure Grip (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-sure-grip-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $0.57 | 2.5% | 1,969 | 1727.0 | 1.14× |
| [MAG-7 \| Resupply (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-resupply-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $0.52 | 2.2% | 1,675 | 1727.0 | 0.97× |
| [P90 \| Wave Breaker (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-wave-breaker-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.51 | 2.6% | 1,854 | 2014.9 | 0.92× |
| [Nova \| Rising Sun (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rising-sun-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.50 | 2.5% | 1,974 | 2014.9 | 0.98× |
| [Galil AR \| Control (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-control-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.49 | 2.5% | 1,984 | 2014.9 | 0.98× |
| [MP9 \| Nexus (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-nexus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $0.17 | 0.9% | 2,293 | 2187.6 | 1.05× |
| [MAG-7 \| Resupply (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-resupply-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $0.15 | 0.9% | 2,251 | 2302.7 | 0.98× |

Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `skinclub:apiv2/cases/fever-case`, 11 Nov, 20:47 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Survival Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $1.47 $124 84.48x 2026-11-06 23:00 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [djorgeporras](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/djorgeporras) $1.51 $123 81.66x 2026-11-09 09:22 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [Nori Pizdy](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Nori%20Pizdy) $1.49 $123 82.51x 2026-11-10 00:11 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [OnCrack](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/OnCrack) $1.50 $123 81.69x 2026-11-11 15:21 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [M4r1o](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/M4r1o) $1.49 $122 82.19x 2026-11-10 11:53 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [PatrovPatrokovic](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/PatrovPatrokovic) $1.48 $122 82.72x 2026-11-02 21:52 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [DonkeyShot](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/DonkeyShot) $1.49 $122 81.70x 2026-11-11 05:23 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [Asuna](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Asuna) $1.47 $122 82.75x 2026-11-03 18:03 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [NAVI K1mCh1](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/NAVI%20K1mCh1) $1.47 $121 82.53x 2026-11-04 23:41 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $1.47 $121 82.48x 2026-11-03 00:48 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=skinclub&case=fever-case)

[AK-47 | Searing Rage (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-field-tested) [★彡\[ᴅᴇᴅ ᴋɪʟʟᴇʀ](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/%E2%98%85%E5%BD%A1%5B%E1%B4%85%E1%B4%87%E1%B4%85%C2%A0%E1%B4%8B%C9%AA%CA%9F%CA%9F%E1%B4%87%CA%80) $1.51 $4.77 3.16x 2026-11-11 20:58 UTC

[MAG-7 | Resupply (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-resupply-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.51 $0.15 0.10x 2026-11-11 20:56 UTC

[Nova | Rising Sun (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rising-sun-factory-new) Hidden $1.51 $2.94 1.95x 2026-11-11 20:56 UTC

[MAG-7 | Resupply (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-resupply-factory-new) Hidden $1.51 $0.52 0.34x 2026-11-11 20:56 UTC

[P2000 | Sure Grip (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-sure-grip-factory-new) [PixelToni](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/PixelToni) $1.51 $0.57 0.38x 2026-11-11 20:56 UTC

[Glock-18 | Shinobu (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-field-tested) [Spooke](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Spooke) $1.51 $4.76 3.15x 2026-11-11 20:55 UTC

[Galil AR | Control (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-control-factory-new) Hidden $1.51 $2.94 1.95x 2026-11-11 20:55 UTC

[P2000 | Sure Grip (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-sure-grip-factory-new) Hidden $1.51 $0.57 0.38x 2026-11-11 20:55 UTC

[MAG-7 | Resupply (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-resupply-factory-new) Hidden $1.51 $0.52 0.34x 2026-11-11 20:55 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-serpent-strike-factory-new) [Spooke](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Spooke) $1.51 $1.52 1.01x 2026-11-11 20:55 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 20:47 UTC | $1.51 | 92.19% | 38 |
| 11 Nov, 14:43 UTC | $1.50 | 92.24% | 38 |
| 11 Nov, 08:39 UTC | $1.50 | 92.20% | 38 |
| 11 Nov, 02:35 UTC | $1.49 | 92.80% | 38 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $1.50 | 92.38% | 38 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $1.49 | 92.79% | 38 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $1.49 | 92.70% | 38 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $1.49 | 92.73% | 38 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $1.49 | 92.22% | 38 |
| 9 Nov, 14:11 UTC | $1.49 | 92.31% | 38 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $1.50 | 92.51% | 38 |
| 9 Nov, 01:54 UTC | $1.51 | 92.26% | 38 |
| 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $1.50 | 92.75% | 38 |
| 8 Nov, 23:40 UTC | $1.50 | 92.62% | 38 |
| 8 Nov, 17:36 UTC | $1.50 | 92.61% | 38 |
| 8 Nov, 11:31 UTC | $1.50 | 92.52% | 38 |
| 8 Nov, 05:27 UTC | $1.50 | 92.69% | 38 |
| 7 Nov, 23:23 UTC | $1.50 | 92.45% | 38 |
| 7 Nov, 17:19 UTC | $1.49 | 92.78% | 38 |
| 7 Nov, 11:15 UTC | $1.48 | 92.80% | 38 |
| 7 Nov, 05:10 UTC | $1.47 | 92.51% | 38 |
| 6 Nov, 23:06 UTC | $1.47 | 92.80% | 38 |
| 6 Nov, 17:02 UTC | $1.47 | 92.49% | 38 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $1.47 | 92.46% | 38 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $1.47 | 92.37% | 38 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $1.46 | 92.70% | 38 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $1.46 | 92.65% | 38 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $1.46 | 92.67% | 38 |
| 5 Nov, 04:38 UTC | $1.46 | 92.75% | 38 |
| 4 Nov, 22:34 UTC | $1.47 | 92.27% | 38 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed gold 0.1% sunny 0.0% rare 0.1% Ancient 0.1% uncommon 2.6% red 0.1% pink 4.5% Legendary 2.8% Mythical 19.5% restricted 2.0% blue 25.1% Rare 14.0% #4b69ff 4.0% #8847ff 5.0% milspec 6.0% violet 14.0% best hit $124 (84.48x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.19 on average: an expected loss of $7.81 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt