---
title: "Harlequin case on Skin.club: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Harlequin ($0.36) on Skin.club, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.44% from 26 items with odds, observed 92.73% over 125K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/harlequin-case
rendered: 2026-11-12T08:45Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Skin.club](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinclub) / [Harlequin](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/harlequin-case)

# [Skin.club](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinclub) · Harlequin

A case on Skin.club (Collection Vault), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/harlequin-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/harlequin-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/harlequin-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/harlequin-case?window=all)

Price · $0.36

Advertised RTP · 93.44% · EV $0.34 from 26 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 92.73% · 125K openings, odds method

Variance · 12.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 32 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 90.45% ±6.50 11.1K openings

7 days · 92.75% ±2.18 95.5K openings

30 days · 92.73% ±1.90 125K openings

since tracking started · 92.73% ±1.90 125K openings

83.5% 90.5% 97.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/harlequin-case?window=24h) | 11.1K | 90.45% ±6.50 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/harlequin-case?window=7d) | 95.5K | 92.75% ±2.18 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/harlequin-case) | 125K | 92.73% ±1.90 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/harlequin-case?window=all) | 125K | 92.73% ±1.90 | +0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 26 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 125K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $23.42 | 7.0% | 129 | 125.1 | 1.03× |
| [M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-minimal-wear) | 1 in 667 | $14.16 | 6.3% | 173 | 187.6 | 0.92× |
| [AWP \| Exothermic (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exothermic-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $8.40 | 10.0% | 529 | 500.3 | 1.06× |
| [USP-S \| Sleeping Potion (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-sleeping-potion-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $8.19 | 9.7% | 493 | 500.3 | 0.99× |
| [AWP \| Exothermic (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exothermic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 154 | $4.16 | 8.0% | 828 | 812.9 | 1.02× |
| [USP-S \| Sleeping Potion (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-sleeping-potion-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $3.38 | 7.0% | 863 | 875.5 | 0.99× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fraise Crane (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fraise-crane-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $2.18 | 4.5% | 866 | 875.5 | 0.99× |
| [Galil AR \| Sky Mandala (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sky-mandala-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $1.35 | 3.2% | 1,007 | 1000.6 | 1.01× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fraise Crane (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fraise-crane-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $1.00 | 3.0% | 1,274 | 1250.7 | 1.02× |
| [SSG 08 \| Calligrafaux (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-calligrafaux-factory-new) | 1 in 91 | $0.85 | 2.8% | 1,354 | 1375.8 | 0.98× |
| [UMP-45 \| Warm Blooded (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-warm-blooded-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $0.84 | 5.0% | 2,958 | 2501.4 | 1.18× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Earth Mandala (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-earth-mandala-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $0.75 | 4.5% | 2,999 | 2501.4 | 1.20× |
| [Galil AR \| Sky Mandala (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sky-mandala-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $0.62 | 5.5% | 2,947 | 3752.1 | 0.79× |
| [UMP-45 \| Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-warm-blooded-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $0.38 | 4.0% | 4,390 | 4377.4 | 1.00× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Earth Mandala (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-earth-mandala-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $0.37 | 3.8% | 4,292 | 4377.4 | 0.98× |
| [MP7 \| Coral Paisley (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-coral-paisley-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.19 | 2.3% | 4,959 | 5002.8 | 0.99× |
| [MP5-SD \| Picnic (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-picnic-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.16 | 1.9% | 5,148 | 5002.8 | 1.03× |
| [Tec-9 \| Banana Leaf (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-banana-leaf-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.14 | 1.7% | 5,032 | 5002.8 | 1.01× |
| [XM1014 \| XoooM (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-xooom-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $0.13 | 2.7% | 8,733 | 8754.8 | 1.00× |
| [MP9 \| Bee-Tron (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bee-tron-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $0.09 | 2.1% | 10,002 | 10005.5 | 1.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Mauve Aside (Factory New) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-mauve-aside-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $0.04 | 1.0% | 10,629 | 10005.5 | 1.06× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Honey Paisley (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-honey-paisley-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $0.03 | 0.8% | 10,629 | 11256.2 | 0.94× |
| [FAMAS \| Byproduct (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-byproduct-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $0.03 | 0.8% | 11,036 | 11256.2 | 0.98× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Thermal Currents (Factory New) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-thermal-currents-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $0.03 | 0.7% | 11,117 | 10005.5 | 1.11× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Crimson Batik (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-crimson-batik-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $0.03 | 0.8% | 11,479 | 11256.2 | 1.02× |
| [SG 553 \| Safari Print (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-safari-print-factory-new) | 10.0% | $0.03 | 0.9% | 11,203 | 12506.9 | 0.90× |

Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `skinclub:apiv2/cases/harlequin-case`, 12 Nov, 02:51 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[M4A1-S | Party Animal (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-factory-new) Hidden $0.37 $23.77 64.24x 2026-11-08 00:51 UTC

[M4A1-S | Party Animal (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-factory-new) [MrJohnson907](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/MrJohnson907) $0.37 $23.69 64.03x 2026-11-08 03:53 UTC

[M4A1-S | Party Animal (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-factory-new) Hidden $0.38 $23.69 62.34x 2026-11-08 03:51 UTC

[M4A1-S | Party Animal (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-factory-new) [Patrik](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Patrik) $0.36 $23.66 65.72x 2026-11-07 23:45 UTC

[M4A1-S | Party Animal (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-factory-new) Hidden $0.37 $23.59 63.76x 2026-11-08 13:57 UTC

[M4A1-S | Party Animal (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-factory-new) Hidden $0.37 $23.59 63.76x 2026-11-07 19:04 UTC

[M4A1-S | Party Animal (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-factory-new) Hidden $0.37 $23.57 63.70x 2026-11-08 14:42 UTC

[M4A1-S | Party Animal (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-factory-new) Hidden $0.37 $23.57 63.70x 2026-11-08 14:36 UTC

[M4A1-S | Party Animal (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-factory-new) Hidden $0.37 $23.54 63.62x 2026-11-07 22:32 UTC

[M4A1-S | Party Animal (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-factory-new) Hidden $0.37 $23.54 63.62x 2026-11-07 22:09 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=skinclub&case=harlequin-case)

[PP-Bizon | Thermal Currents (Factory New) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-thermal-currents-factory-new) Hidden $0.36 $0.03 0.08x 2026-11-12 08:45 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Thermal Currents (Factory New) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-thermal-currents-factory-new) Hidden $0.36 $0.03 0.08x 2026-11-12 08:45 UTC

[MP7 | Coral Paisley (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-coral-paisley-factory-new) Hidden $0.36 $0.19 0.53x 2026-11-12 08:45 UTC

[AWP | Exothermic (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exothermic-factory-new) [Trleeee](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Trleeee) $0.36 $8.36 23.22x 2026-11-12 08:45 UTC

[SG 553 | Safari Print (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-safari-print-factory-new) Hidden $0.36 $0.03 0.08x 2026-11-12 08:44 UTC

[AWP | Exothermic (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exothermic-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.36 $4.10 11.39x 2026-11-12 08:44 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Crimson Batik (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-crimson-batik-factory-new) Hidden $0.36 $0.02 0.06x 2026-11-12 08:44 UTC

[FAMAS | Byproduct (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-byproduct-factory-new) [nakka](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/nakka) $0.36 $0.03 0.08x 2026-11-12 08:44 UTC

[XM1014 | XoooM (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-xooom-factory-new) Hidden $0.36 $0.14 0.39x 2026-11-12 08:44 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Thermal Currents (Factory New) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-thermal-currents-factory-new) Hidden $0.36 $0.03 0.08x 2026-11-12 08:44 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 12 Nov, 02:51 UTC | $0.36 | 93.44% | 26 |
| 11 Nov, 20:47 UTC | $0.36 | 92.91% | 26 |
| 11 Nov, 14:43 UTC | $0.36 | 91.69% | 26 |
| 11 Nov, 08:39 UTC | $0.36 | 92.53% | 26 |
| 11 Nov, 02:35 UTC | $0.37 | 91.30% | 26 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $0.36 | 93.23% | 26 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $0.36 | 93.37% | 26 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $0.37 | 91.27% | 26 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $0.37 | 91.44% | 26 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $0.36 | 93.45% | 26 |
| 9 Nov, 14:11 UTC | $0.36 | 93.50% | 26 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $0.37 | 91.73% | 26 |
| 9 Nov, 01:54 UTC | $0.37 | 92.54% | 26 |
| 8 Nov, 23:40 UTC | $0.37 | 91.97% | 26 |
| 8 Nov, 17:36 UTC | $0.37 | 92.01% | 26 |
| 8 Nov, 11:31 UTC | $0.37 | 91.95% | 26 |
| 8 Nov, 05:27 UTC | $0.37 | 92.66% | 26 |
| 7 Nov, 23:23 UTC | $0.37 | 92.26% | 26 |
| 7 Nov, 17:19 UTC | $0.36 | 93.43% | 26 |
| 7 Nov, 11:15 UTC | $0.37 | 91.48% | 26 |
| 7 Nov, 05:10 UTC | $0.37 | 91.41% | 26 |
| 6 Nov, 23:06 UTC | $0.37 | 91.62% | 26 |
| 6 Nov, 17:02 UTC | $0.37 | 91.31% | 26 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $0.36 | 93.23% | 26 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $0.36 | 92.89% | 26 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $0.37 | 91.39% | 26 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $0.36 | 93.20% | 26 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $0.36 | 93.25% | 26 |
| 5 Nov, 04:38 UTC | $0.37 | 91.60% | 26 |
| 4 Nov, 22:34 UTC | $0.37 | 91.58% | 26 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed pink 0.1% #d32ce6 0.1% Mythical 0.8% restricted 0.7% #8847ff 0.7% #4b69ff 10.0% #5e98d9 9.1% milspec 3.0% Rare 3.5% Uncommon 11.0% Common 45.0% #b0c3d9 16.0% best hit $23.77 (64.24x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.44 on average: an expected loss of $6.56 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt