--- title: "kaeryka case on Skin.club: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "kaeryka ($5.93) on Skin.club, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.44% from 10 items with odds, observed 90.96% over 58.6K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/kaeryka-case rendered: 2026-11-12T09:59Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Skin.club](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinclub) / [kaeryka](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/kaeryka-case) # [Skin.club](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinclub) · kaeryka A case on Skin.club (Creators cases), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/kaeryka-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/kaeryka-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/kaeryka-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/kaeryka-case?window=all) Price · $5.93 Advertised RTP · 92.44% · EV $5.48 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 90.96% · 58.6K openings, sample method Variance · 70.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 182 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 97.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 101.22% ±19.73 6,998 openings 7 days · 92.00% ±7.08 49.6K openings 30 days · 90.96% ±6.47 58.6K openings since tracking started · 90.96% ±6.47 58.6K openings 81.0% 101.3% 121.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/kaeryka-case?window=24h) | 6,998 | 101.22% ±19.7 | +0.8σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/kaeryka-case?window=7d) | 49.6K | 92.00% ±7.08 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/kaeryka-case) | 58.6K | 90.96% ±6.47 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/kaeryka-case?window=all) | 58.6K | 90.96% ±6.47 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 58.7K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · Immortal · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,467 | 13.4% | 25 | 29.3 | 0.85× | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3) knife · Immortal · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-minimal-wear-phase-3) | 1 in 500 | $522 | 19.1% | 119 | 117.3 | 1.01× | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · Immortal · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 333 | $380 | 20.8% | 170 | 176.0 | 0.97× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · Immortal · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 222 | $303 | 24.9% | 273 | 264.0 | 1.03× | | [USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $35.61 | 13.0% | 1,159 | 1173.5 | 0.99× | | [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Apocalypto (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-apocalypto-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $1.00 | 1.6% | 8,491 | 5280.7 | 1.61× | | [R8 Revolver \| Crazy 8 (Minimal Wear) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crazy-8-minimal-wear) | 17.0% | $0.87 | 2.7% | 6,792 | 9974.6 | 0.68× | | [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Crazy 8 (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-crazy-8-field-tested) | 21.0% | $0.72 | 2.8% | 12,410 | 12321.5 | 1.01× | | [R8 Revolver \| Inlay (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-inlay-factory-new) | 25.0% | $0.26 | 1.2% | 14,562 | 14668.5 | 0.99× | | [R8 Revolver \| Inlay (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-inlay-minimal-wear) | 25.0% | $0.13 | 0.6% | 14,673 | 14668.5 | 1.00× | Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `skinclub:apiv2/cases/kaeryka-case`, 12 Nov, 08:56 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · Immortal · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-minimal-wear-phase-2) Hidden $6.18 $1,656 267.9x 2026-11-04 23:41 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · Immortal · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-minimal-wear-phase-2) Hidden $6.16 $1,630 264.6x 2026-11-04 21:45 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · Immortal · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-minimal-wear-phase-2) [FataleDemise5](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/FataleDemise5) $6.23 $1,630 261.6x 2026-11-04 21:11 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · Immortal · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-minimal-wear-phase-2) Hidden $6.16 $1,629 264.5x 2026-11-05 23:23 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · Immortal · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-minimal-wear-phase-2) [Wikingar](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Wikingar) $6.16 $1,629 264.5x 2026-11-05 23:12 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · Immortal · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-minimal-wear-phase-2) Hidden $5.96 $1,466 245.9x 2026-11-12 03:26 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · Immortal · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-minimal-wear-phase-2) Hidden $5.98 $1,459 243.9x 2026-11-11 22:57 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · Immortal · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-minimal-wear-phase-2) Hidden $5.98 $1,453 242.9x 2026-11-11 22:45 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · Immortal · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-minimal-wear-phase-2) Hidden $5.98 $1,453 242.9x 2026-11-11 22:38 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · Immortal · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-minimal-wear-phase-2) Hidden $5.98 $1,453 242.9x 2026-11-11 22:36 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=skinclub&case=kaeryka-case) [R8 Revolver | Inlay (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-inlay-minimal-wear) Hidden $5.93 $0.13 0.02x 2026-11-12 09:52 UTC [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-crazy-8-field-tested) Hidden $5.93 $0.72 0.12x 2026-11-12 09:52 UTC [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-crazy-8-field-tested) [xPABLOx](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/xPABLOx) $5.93 $0.72 0.12x 2026-11-12 09:52 UTC [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-crazy-8-field-tested) [Kharizmuhh](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Kharizmuhh) $5.93 $0.72 0.12x 2026-11-12 09:52 UTC [USP-S | Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) Hidden $5.93 $35.61 6.01x 2026-11-12 09:46 UTC [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-apocalypto-field-tested) Hidden $5.93 $1.00 0.17x 2026-11-12 09:46 UTC [R8 Revolver | Inlay (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-inlay-minimal-wear) [Triage Moneghetti](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Triage%20Moneghetti) $5.93 $0.13 0.02x 2026-11-12 09:46 UTC [R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Minimal Wear) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crazy-8-minimal-wear) [Kharizmuhh](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Kharizmuhh) $5.93 $0.87 0.15x 2026-11-12 09:46 UTC [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-crazy-8-field-tested) Hidden $5.93 $0.72 0.12x 2026-11-12 09:46 UTC [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-crazy-8-field-tested) Hidden $5.93 $0.72 0.12x 2026-11-12 09:46 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 12 Nov, 08:56 UTC | $5.93 | 92.44% | 10 | | 12 Nov, 02:51 UTC | $5.96 | 92.45% | 10 | | 11 Nov, 20:47 UTC | $6.02 | 92.51% | 10 | | 11 Nov, 14:43 UTC | $6.08 | 92.54% | 10 | | 11 Nov, 08:39 UTC | $6.09 | 92.48% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed 3 17.0% Immortal 1.0% covert 2.0% restricted 9.0% Mythical 21.0% Common 50.0% best hit $1,656 (267.9x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.44 on average: an expected loss of $7.56 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt