---
title: "KAWAII case on Skin.club: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "KAWAII ($0.35) on Skin.club, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.45% from 25 items with odds, observed 92.69% over 99K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/kawaii
rendered: 2026-11-12T10:09Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Skin.club](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinclub) / [KAWAII](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/kawaii)

# [Skin.club](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinclub) · KAWAII

A case on Skin.club (Sticker Capsules), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/kawaii?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/kawaii?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/kawaii) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/kawaii?window=all)

Price · $0.35

Advertised RTP · 91.45% · EV $0.32 from 25 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 92.69% · 99K openings, odds method

Variance · 3.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 16.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 83.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 95.19% ±3.19 11.1K openings

7 days · 92.98% ±1.26 72.8K openings

30 days · 92.69% ±1.08 99K openings

since tracking started · 92.69% ±1.08 99K openings

91.0% 95.0% 99.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/kawaii?window=24h) | 11.1K | 95.19% ±3.19 | +2.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/kawaii?window=7d) | 72.8K | 92.98% ±1.26 | +1.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/kawaii) | 99K | 92.69% ±1.08 | +1.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/kawaii?window=all) | 99K | 92.69% ±1.08 | +1.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 25 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 99.4K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Sticker \| Great Wave (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-great-wave-holo) | 1 in 333 | $7.24 | 6.8% | 311 | 298.3 | 1.04× |
| [Sticker \| V For Victory (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-v-for-victory-holo) | 1 in 250 | $5.40 | 6.7% | 415 | 397.7 | 1.04× |
| [Sticker \| Unicorn (Holo) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-unicorn-holo) | 1 in 200 | $2.23 | 3.5% | 738 | 497.1 | 1.48× |
| [Sticker \| Ivette (Holo) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ivette-holo) | 1 in 100 | $2.15 | 6.7% | 740 | 994.2 | 0.74× |
| [Sticker \| Sherry (Holo) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sherry-holo) | 1 in 200 | $1.77 | 2.8% | 487 | 497.1 | 0.98× |
| [Sticker \| Silent Ninja (Foil) sticker · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-silent-ninja-foil) | 1 in 111 | $1.41 | 4.0% | 909 | 894.8 | 1.02× |
| [Sticker \| Cyber Romanov (Holo) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cyber-romanov-holo) | 1 in 100 | $0.98 | 3.1% | 1,746 | 994.2 | 1.76× |
| [Sticker \| Kawaii Killer Terrorist sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kawaii-killer-terrorist) | 1 in 200 | $0.94 | 1.5% | 735 | 497.1 | 1.48× |
| [Sticker \| Kawaii Killer CT sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kawaii-killer-ct) | 1 in 77 | $0.87 | 3.5% | 1,272 | 1292.5 | 0.98× |
| [Sticker \| Free Hugs sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-free-hugs) | 1 in 33 | $0.83 | 7.8% | 1,984 | 2982.7 | 0.67× |
| [Sticker \| Bombsquad (Foil) sticker · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bombsquad-foil) | 1 in 100 | $0.58 | 1.8% | 958 | 994.2 | 0.96× |
| [Sticker \| Merietta (Holo) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-merietta-holo) | 1 in 100 | $0.53 | 1.7% | 960 | 994.2 | 0.97× |
| [Sticker \| Martha (Holo) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-martha-holo) | 1 in 20 | $0.42 | 6.6% | 5,329 | 4971.2 | 1.07× |
| [Sticker \| Toy Tiger sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-toy-tiger) | 1 in 11 | $0.30 | 8.4% | 5,093 | 8948.2 | 0.57× |
| [Sticker \| Sherry sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sherry) | 1 in 33 | $0.29 | 2.7% | 3,985 | 2982.7 | 1.34× |
| [Sticker \| Wingsuit (Holo) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-wingsuit-holo) | 1 in 33 | $0.24 | 2.2% | 3,902 | 2982.7 | 1.31× |
| [Sticker \| Ivette sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ivette) | 1 in 38 | $0.24 | 1.9% | 6,990 | 2585.0 | 2.70× |
| [Sticker \| Noodles sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-noodles) | 1 in 13 | $0.23 | 5.7% | 6,338 | 7954.0 | 0.80× |
| [Sticker \| Defuse It (Holo) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-defuse-it-holo) | 1 in 14 | $0.19 | 4.2% | 7,938 | 6959.7 | 1.14× |
| [Sticker \| Baby Cerberus sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-baby-cerberus) | 12.0% | $0.16 | 6.0% | 7,583 | 11931.0 | 0.64× |
| [Sticker \| Merietta sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-merietta) | 1 in 20 | $0.15 | 2.3% | 7,554 | 4971.2 | 1.52× |
| [Sticker \| Hotpot sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hotpot) | 12.0% | $0.14 | 5.2% | 10,520 | 11931.0 | 0.88× |
| [Sticker \| Baby Fire Serpent sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-baby-fire-serpent) | 1 in 13 | $0.10 | 2.5% | 8,449 | 7954.0 | 1.06× |
| [Sticker \| Last Vance sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-last-vance) | 1 in 17 | $0.07 | 1.3% | 7,517 | 5965.5 | 1.26× |
| [Sticker \| Martha sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-martha) | 1 in 13 | $0.04 | 1.0% | 6,972 | 7954.0 | 0.88× |

Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `skinclub:apiv2/cases/kawaii`, 12 Nov, 08:56 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=skinclub&case=kawaii)

[Sticker | Baby Fire Serpent sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-baby-fire-serpent) Hidden $0.35 $0.10 0.29x 2026-11-12 10:07 UTC

[Sticker | Baby Fire Serpent sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-baby-fire-serpent) Hidden $0.35 $0.10 0.29x 2026-11-12 10:07 UTC

[Sticker | Hotpot sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hotpot) Hidden $0.35 $0.14 0.40x 2026-11-12 10:07 UTC

[Sticker | Merietta sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-merietta) [creator\`](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/creator%60) $0.35 $0.15 0.43x 2026-11-12 10:07 UTC

[Sticker | Baby Cerberus sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-baby-cerberus) Hidden $0.35 $0.15 0.43x 2026-11-12 10:07 UTC

[Sticker | Hotpot sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hotpot) Hidden $0.35 $0.14 0.40x 2026-11-12 10:07 UTC

[Sticker | Hotpot sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hotpot) Hidden $0.35 $0.14 0.40x 2026-11-12 10:07 UTC

[Sticker | Baby Cerberus sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-baby-cerberus) [creator\`](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/creator%60) $0.35 $0.15 0.43x 2026-11-12 10:07 UTC

[Sticker | Cyber Romanov (Holo) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cyber-romanov-holo) [MemoNigerius](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/MemoNigerius) $0.35 $0.98 2.80x 2026-11-12 10:07 UTC

[Sticker | Last Vance sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-last-vance) Hidden $0.35 $0.07 0.20x 2026-11-12 10:06 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 12 Nov, 08:56 UTC | $0.35 | 91.45% | 25 |
| 12 Nov, 02:51 UTC | $0.35 | 92.64% | 25 |
| 11 Nov, 20:47 UTC | $0.35 | 93.33% | 25 |
| 11 Nov, 14:43 UTC | $0.34 | 91.18% | 25 |
| 11 Nov, 08:39 UTC | $0.34 | 91.40% | 25 |
| 11 Nov, 02:35 UTC | $0.34 | 91.30% | 25 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $0.34 | 91.38% | 25 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $0.34 | 91.69% | 25 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $0.35 | 91.42% | 25 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $0.34 | 93.18% | 25 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $0.35 | 92.49% | 25 |
| 9 Nov, 14:11 UTC | $0.35 | 92.54% | 25 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $0.35 | 93.14% | 25 |
| 9 Nov, 02:03 UTC | $0.35 | 91.83% | 25 |
| 9 Nov, 01:54 UTC | $0.35 | 92.27% | 25 |
| 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $0.35 | 92.50% | 25 |
| 8 Nov, 23:40 UTC | $0.35 | 92.23% | 25 |
| 8 Nov, 17:36 UTC | $0.35 | 91.63% | 25 |
| 8 Nov, 11:31 UTC | $0.34 | 93.46% | 25 |
| 8 Nov, 05:27 UTC | $0.35 | 91.58% | 25 |
| 7 Nov, 23:23 UTC | $0.35 | 91.47% | 25 |
| 7 Nov, 17:19 UTC | $0.35 | 93.15% | 25 |
| 7 Nov, 11:15 UTC | $0.36 | 91.35% | 25 |
| 7 Nov, 05:10 UTC | $0.35 | 93.17% | 25 |
| 6 Nov, 23:06 UTC | $0.36 | 91.32% | 25 |
| 6 Nov, 17:02 UTC | $0.36 | 93.41% | 25 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $0.35 | 93.37% | 25 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $0.35 | 92.75% | 25 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $0.36 | 92.38% | 25 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $0.34 | 93.27% | 25 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed remarkable 0.7% Mythical 19.0% Legendary 1.9% Rare 78.4% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.45 on average: an expected loss of $8.55 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt