--- title: "Level 40 case on Skin.club: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Level 40 ($0.25) on Skin.club, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.97% from 4 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/lvl-40 rendered: 2026-11-12T03:52Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Skin.club](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinclub) / [Level 40](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/lvl-40) # [Skin.club](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinclub) · Level 40 A case on Skin.club (daily cases), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/lvl-40?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/lvl-40?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/lvl-40) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/lvl-40?window=all) Price · $0.25 Advertised RTP · 89.97% · EV $0.22 from 4 items Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings Variance · 505.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 1,176 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker **No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/lvl-40?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/lvl-40?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/lvl-40) | 0 | — | — | — | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/lvl-40?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,176 | $193 | 72.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [SSG 08 \| Calligrafaux (Minimal Wear) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-calligrafaux-minimal-wear) | 16.0% | $0.12 | 8.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 20.8% | $0.11 | 10.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [FAMAS \| Byproduct (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-byproduct-factory-new) | 63.1% | $0.03 | 8.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `skinclub:apiv2/cases/lvl-40`, 12 Nov, 02:51 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Ursus Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) [wipe](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/wipe) $0.25 $193 771.5x 2026-11-12 01:06 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) [Nikola Tesla](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Nikola%20Tesla) $0.25 $193 771.5x 2026-11-11 22:42 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) [xoxota](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/xoxota) $0.25 $193 771.5x 2026-11-11 21:30 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) [Es el Noto](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Es%20el%20Noto) $0.25 $193 771.5x 2026-11-11 19:24 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) [SyNàPsé](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/SyN%C3%A0Ps%C3%A9) $0.25 $193 771.5x 2026-11-11 18:48 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) [Axelshots](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Axelshots) $0.25 $193 771.5x 2026-11-11 15:42 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) [BoSil](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/BoSil) $0.25 $193 771.5x 2026-11-11 14:39 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) [KRATOS⚡](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/KRATOS%E2%9A%A1) $0.25 $193 771.5x 2026-11-11 09:13 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) [Pete the skinless](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Pete%20the%20skinless) $0.25 $193 771.5x 2026-11-11 07:38 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) [doorcamper watchout](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/doorcamper%20watchout) $0.25 $193 771.5x 2026-11-11 00:33 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=skinclub&case=lvl-40) [★ Ursus Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) [wipe](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/wipe) $0.25 $193 771.5x 2026-11-12 01:06 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) [Nikola Tesla](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Nikola%20Tesla) $0.25 $193 771.5x 2026-11-11 22:42 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) [xoxota](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/xoxota) $0.25 $193 771.5x 2026-11-11 21:30 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) [Es el Noto](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Es%20el%20Noto) $0.25 $193 771.5x 2026-11-11 19:24 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) [SyNàPsé](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/SyN%C3%A0Ps%C3%A9) $0.25 $193 771.5x 2026-11-11 18:48 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) [Axelshots](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Axelshots) $0.25 $193 771.5x 2026-11-11 15:42 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) [BoSil](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/BoSil) $0.25 $193 771.5x 2026-11-11 14:39 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) [KRATOS⚡](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/KRATOS%E2%9A%A1) $0.25 $193 771.5x 2026-11-11 09:13 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) [Pete the skinless](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Pete%20the%20skinless) $0.25 $193 771.5x 2026-11-11 07:38 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) [doorcamper watchout](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/doorcamper%20watchout) $0.25 $193 771.5x 2026-11-11 00:33 UTC ## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days No history yet ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $0.25 | 89.97% | 4 | | 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $0.25 | 89.97% | 4 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert knife 0.1% blueLight 16.0% industrial 20.8% Common 63.1% 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.97 on average: an expected loss of $10.03 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt