---
title: "M4A1-S case on Skin.club: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "M4A1-S ($2.63) on Skin.club, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.67% from 36 items with odds, observed 90.74% over 117K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/m4a1s
rendered: 2026-11-12T03:40Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Skin.club](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinclub) / [M4A1-S](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/m4a1s)

# [Skin.club](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinclub) · M4A1-S

A case on Skin.club (By type), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/m4a1s?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/m4a1s?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/m4a1s) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/m4a1s?window=all)

Price · $2.63

Advertised RTP · 92.67% · EV $2.44 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.74% · 117K openings, odds method

Variance · 9.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 22 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 83.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 89.32% ±4.79 15.6K openings

7 days · 90.70% ±2.10 90K openings

30 days · 90.74% ±1.86 117K openings

since tracking started · 90.74% ±1.86 117K openings

84.0% 89.5% 95.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/m4a1s?window=24h) | 15.6K | 89.32% ±4.79 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/m4a1s?window=7d) | 90K | 90.70% ±2.10 | −1.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/m4a1s) | 117K | 90.74% ±1.86 | −1.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/m4a1s?window=all) | 117K | 90.74% ±1.86 | −1.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 117K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $189 | 0.8% | 22 | 11.7 | 1.88× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $169 | 0.7% | 7 | 11.7 | 0.60× |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $153 | 0.6% | 5 | 11.7 | 0.43× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $124 | 1.0% | 44 | 23.4 | 1.88× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $121 | 1.5% | 64 | 35.1 | 1.82× |
| [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $117 | 1.9% | 19 | 46.8 | 0.41× |
| [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 2,500 | $111 | 1.8% | 242 | 46.8 | 5.17× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,667 | $89.42 | 2.2% | 73 | 70.2 | 1.04× |
| [M4A1-S \| Moss Quartz (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-moss-quartz-factory-new) | 1 in 1,250 | $74.00 | 2.4% | 46 | 93.7 | 0.49× |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,250 | $73.01 | 2.4% | 68 | 93.7 | 0.73× |
| [M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $68.30 | 2.8% | 94 | 117.1 | 0.80× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $58.95 | 2.4% | 172 | 117.1 | 1.47× |
| [M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $39.38 | 1.6% | 128 | 117.1 | 1.09× |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 588 | $39.29 | 2.7% | 131 | 199.0 | 0.66× |
| [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $32.05 | 3.9% | 486 | 351.2 | 1.38× |
| [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $28.42 | 3.5% | 362 | 351.2 | 1.03× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $21.37 | 4.4% | 646 | 585.4 | 1.10× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $18.77 | 3.9% | 578 | 585.4 | 0.99× |
| [M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $14.01 | 2.9% | 1,023 | 585.4 | 1.75× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-minimal-wear) | 1 in 182 | $11.52 | 2.6% | 980 | 643.9 | 1.52× |
| [M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $10.13 | 4.2% | 859 | 1170.7 | 0.73× |
| [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $10.12 | 4.2% | 760 | 1170.7 | 0.65× |
| [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $7.53 | 3.1% | 3,335 | 1170.7 | 2.85× |
| [M4A1-S \| Briefing (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-briefing-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $6.41 | 2.6% | 3,542 | 1170.7 | 3.03× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $6.37 | 2.6% | 1,136 | 1170.7 | 0.97× |
| [M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $5.21 | 8.6% | 1,904 | 4682.9 | 0.41× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $5.17 | 8.5% | 2,292 | 4682.9 | 0.49× |
| [M4A1-S \| Mud-Spec (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mud-spec-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $2.21 | 5.4% | 7,003 | 7024.3 | 1.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fizzy POP (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fizzy-pop-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $1.93 | 4.4% | 6,657 | 6439.0 | 1.03× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $1.04 | 3.0% | 8,182 | 8195.0 | 1.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.64 | 2.1% | 9,433 | 9365.8 | 1.01× |
| [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.50 | 1.6% | 9,306 | 9365.8 | 0.99× |
| [M4A1-S \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $0.25 | 0.9% | 12,319 | 10536.5 | 1.17× |
| [M4A1-S \| VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-varicamo-field-tested) | 10.0% | $0.24 | 1.0% | 13,696 | 11707.2 | 1.17× |
| [M4A1-S \| Wash me plz (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-wash-me-plz-minimal-wear) | 16.0% | $0.15 | 1.0% | 15,150 | 18731.5 | 0.81× |
| [M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-field-tested) | 14.0% | $0.14 | 0.8% | 16,308 | 16390.1 | 0.99× |

Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `skinclub:apiv2/cases/m4a1s`, 12 Nov, 02:51 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[M4A1-S | Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) [fat ugly pig](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/fat%20ugly%20pig) $2.60 $189 72.87x 2026-11-11 05:14 UTC

[M4A1-S | Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) [Triage Moneghetti](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Triage%20Moneghetti) $2.61 $189 72.57x 2026-11-11 11:39 UTC

[M4A1-S | Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.60 $189 72.58x 2026-11-11 02:32 UTC

[M4A1-S | Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) [Akiwo 𝒫𝒲](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Akiwo%20%F0%9D%92%AB%F0%9D%92%B2) $3.12 $189 60.46x 2026-11-09 02:35 UTC

[M4A1-S | Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.59 $188 72.46x 2026-11-09 16:30 UTC

[M4A1-S | Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) [#Moni™](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/%23Moni%E2%84%A2) $2.59 $187 72.20x 2026-11-10 08:42 UTC

[M4A1-S | Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) [TTHD](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/TTHD) $3.12 $187 59.91x 2026-11-08 15:48 UTC

[M4A1-S | Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) Hidden $3.08 $183 59.54x 2026-11-07 06:19 UTC

[M4A1-S | Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) [ByLA |](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/ByLA%20%7C) $3.06 $181 59.18x 2026-11-05 13:09 UTC

[M4A1-S | Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) [ByLA |](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/ByLA%20%7C) $3.06 $181 59.18x 2026-11-05 13:08 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=skinclub&case=m4a1s)

[M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.64 $0.25 0.09x 2026-11-12 03:40 UTC

[M4A1-S | Mud-Spec (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mud-spec-factory-new) [Onceje](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Onceje) $2.64 $2.21 0.84x 2026-11-12 03:40 UTC

[M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) [Teic](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Teic) $2.64 $0.25 0.09x 2026-11-12 03:37 UTC

[M4A1-S | Wash me plz (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-wash-me-plz-minimal-wear) [Harry](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Harry) $2.64 $0.14 0.05x 2026-11-12 03:37 UTC

[M4A1-S | Mud-Spec (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mud-spec-factory-new) [mrporkchop25](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/mrporkchop25) $2.64 $2.21 0.84x 2026-11-12 03:37 UTC

[M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-field-tested) [kulyalele](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/kulyalele) $2.64 $0.14 0.05x 2026-11-12 03:37 UTC

[M4A1-S | Wash me plz (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-wash-me-plz-minimal-wear) [HUMID](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/HUMID) $2.64 $0.14 0.05x 2026-11-12 03:37 UTC

[M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-minimal-wear) [Corvo](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Corvo) $2.63 $38.52 14.65x 2026-11-12 03:33 UTC

[M4A1-S | Wash me plz (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-wash-me-plz-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.64 $0.14 0.05x 2026-11-12 03:33 UTC

[M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) [Corvo](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Corvo) $2.64 $0.25 0.09x 2026-11-12 03:33 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 12 Nov, 02:51 UTC | $2.63 | 92.67% | 36 |
| 11 Nov, 20:47 UTC | $2.62 | 92.42% | 36 |
| 11 Nov, 14:43 UTC | $2.61 | 92.39% | 36 |
| 11 Nov, 08:39 UTC | $2.60 | 92.66% | 36 |
| 11 Nov, 02:35 UTC | $2.60 | 92.38% | 36 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $2.59 | 92.43% | 36 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $2.58 | 92.52% | 36 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $2.59 | 92.43% | 36 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $2.59 | 92.65% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $2.58 | 92.61% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 14:11 UTC | $2.59 | 92.44% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $3.10 | 92.57% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 01:54 UTC | $3.12 | 92.38% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $3.12 | 92.45% | 36 |
| 8 Nov, 23:40 UTC | $3.12 | 92.48% | 36 |
| 8 Nov, 17:36 UTC | $3.12 | 92.53% | 36 |
| 8 Nov, 11:31 UTC | $3.12 | 92.41% | 36 |
| 8 Nov, 05:27 UTC | $3.11 | 92.48% | 36 |
| 7 Nov, 23:23 UTC | $3.11 | 92.53% | 36 |
| 7 Nov, 17:19 UTC | $3.10 | 92.56% | 36 |
| 7 Nov, 11:15 UTC | $3.09 | 92.36% | 36 |
| 7 Nov, 05:10 UTC | $3.07 | 92.58% | 36 |
| 6 Nov, 23:06 UTC | $3.07 | 92.55% | 36 |
| 6 Nov, 17:02 UTC | $3.06 | 92.52% | 36 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $3.07 | 92.59% | 36 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $3.07 | 92.49% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $3.07 | 92.47% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $3.07 | 92.50% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $3.06 | 92.56% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 04:38 UTC | $3.06 | 92.44% | 36 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.3% classified 2.3% Legendary 0.0% industrial 0.1% rare 0.1% restricted 8.2% pink 1.0% mil spec 4.5% Mythical 17.0% Rare 25.0% Classified 1.0% violet 4.0% Uncommon 31.0% #4b69ff 5.5% best hit $189 (72.87x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.67 on average: an expected loss of $7.33 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt