---
title: "M4A4 case on Skin.club: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "M4A4 ($1.39) on Skin.club, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.62% from 41 items with odds, observed 92.29% over 85.6K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/m4a4
rendered: 2026-11-11T23:25Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Skin.club](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinclub) / [M4A4](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/m4a4)

# [Skin.club](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinclub) · M4A4

A case on Skin.club (By type), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/m4a4?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/m4a4?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/m4a4) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/m4a4?window=all)

Price · $1.39

Advertised RTP · 92.62% · EV $1.29 from 41 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 92.29% · 85.6K openings, odds method

Variance · 24.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 63 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 91.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 90.86% ±10.53 8,588 openings

7 days · 92.14% ±3.64 70K openings

30 days · 92.29% ±3.29 85.6K openings

since tracking started · 92.29% ±3.29 85.6K openings

79.5% 90.8% 102.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/m4a4?window=24h) | 8,588 | 90.86% ±10.5 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/m4a4?window=7d) | 70K | 92.14% ±3.64 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/m4a4) | 85.6K | 92.29% ±3.29 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/m4a4?window=all) | 85.6K | 92.29% ±3.29 | −0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 41 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 85.6K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $267 | 2.1% | 8 | 8.6 | 0.93× |
| [M4A4 \| The Coalition (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $264 | 2.0% | 8 | 8.6 | 0.93× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $127 | 1.0% | 3 | 8.6 | 0.35× |
| [M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,500 | $85.86 | 2.7% | 64 | 34.3 | 1.87× |
| [M4A4 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-x-ray-field-tested) | 1 in 1,667 | $82.69 | 3.9% | 53 | 51.4 | 1.03× |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,667 | $82.18 | 3.8% | 90 | 51.4 | 1.75× |
| [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-field-tested) | 1 in 1,667 | $81.20 | 3.8% | 61 | 51.4 | 1.19× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,111 | $63.25 | 4.4% | 67 | 77.1 | 0.87× |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,111 | $48.91 | 3.4% | 72 | 77.1 | 0.93× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,111 | $46.40 | 3.2% | 69 | 77.1 | 0.90× |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,111 | $38.36 | 2.7% | 62 | 77.1 | 0.80× |
| [M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-field-tested) | 1 in 1,111 | $31.76 | 2.2% | 92 | 77.1 | 1.19× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellish (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $30.87 | 2.4% | 74 | 85.6 | 0.86× |
| [M4A4 \| Desert-Strike (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-strike-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000 | $30.03 | 2.3% | 82 | 85.6 | 0.96× |
| [M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $29.54 | 2.3% | 80 | 85.6 | 0.93× |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-minimal-wear) | 1 in 909 | $27.65 | 2.4% | 65 | 94.2 | 0.69× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-minimal-wear) | 1 in 667 | $23.38 | 2.7% | 172 | 128.5 | 1.34× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-minimal-wear) | 1 in 667 | $19.68 | 2.3% | 150 | 128.5 | 1.17× |
| [M4A4 \| Zirka (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zirka-field-tested) | 1 in 556 | $18.66 | 2.6% | 168 | 154.2 | 1.09× |
| [M4A4 \| Global Offensive (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-global-offensive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $17.13 | 2.7% | 154 | 171.3 | 0.90× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-minimal-wear) | 1 in 417 | $12.47 | 2.3% | 154 | 205.6 | 0.75× |
| [M4A4 \| Dark Blossom (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dark-blossom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 417 | $11.12 | 2.1% | 226 | 205.6 | 1.10× |
| [M4A4 \| Desert Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-storm-field-tested) | 1 in 370 | $10.34 | 2.2% | 212 | 231.2 | 0.92× |
| [M4A4 \| Polysoup (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-polysoup-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $8.57 | 3.3% | 425 | 428.2 | 0.99× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $7.78 | 3.6% | 426 | 513.9 | 0.83× |
| [M4A4 \| Tornado (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tornado-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $7.14 | 2.8% | 500 | 428.2 | 1.17× |
| [M4A4 \| Griffin (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-minimal-wear) | 1 in 167 | $5.42 | 2.5% | 541 | 513.9 | 1.05× |
| [M4A4 \| Faded Zebra (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-faded-zebra-battle-scarred) | 1 in 152 | $4.48 | 2.3% | 783 | 565.3 | 1.39× |
| [M4A4 \| Jungle Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-jungle-tiger-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $4.12 | 3.2% | 577 | 856.5 | 0.67× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $3.84 | 3.0% | 1,479 | 856.5 | 1.73× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $3.04 | 3.5% | 1,030 | 1284.7 | 0.80× |
| [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $1.32 | 2.1% | 3,285 | 1712.9 | 1.92× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $0.63 | 2.2% | 1,964 | 3854.1 | 0.51× |
| [M4A4 \| Converter (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $0.55 | 2.6% | 6,426 | 5138.8 | 1.25× |
| [M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.37 | 2.3% | 5,579 | 6851.7 | 0.81× |
| [M4A4 \| Choppa (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $0.20 | 1.2% | 7,459 | 6851.7 | 1.09× |
| [M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poly-mag-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $0.16 | 1.1% | 9,566 | 7708.1 | 1.24× |
| [M4A4 \| Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-urban-ddpat-field-tested) | 12.0% | $0.11 | 1.0% | 7,628 | 10277.5 | 0.74× |
| [M4A4 \| Naval Shred Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-naval-shred-camo-minimal-wear) | 12.0% | $0.07 | 0.7% | 12,824 | 10277.5 | 1.25× |
| [M4A4 \| Steel Work (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-minimal-wear) | 12.0% | $0.06 | 0.6% | 10,540 | 10277.5 | 1.03× |
| [M4A4 \| Mainframe (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-mainframe-field-tested) | 17.6% | $0.04 | 0.5% | 12,428 | 15073.7 | 0.82× |

Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `skinclub:apiv2/cases/m4a4`, 11 Nov, 20:47 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[M4A4 | The Coalition (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-field-tested) Hidden $1.54 $298 193.8x 2026-11-03 06:04 UTC

[M4A4 | The Coalition (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-field-tested) Hidden $1.53 $292 191.0x 2026-11-04 11:37 UTC

[M4A4 | The Coalition (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-field-tested) [GHOUST](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/GHOUST) $1.52 $291 191.7x 2026-11-05 08:41 UTC

[M4A4 | The Coalition (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-field-tested) [xen0N](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/xen0N) $1.52 $291 191.7x 2026-11-05 08:41 UTC

[M4A4 | The Coalition (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-field-tested) [mrporkchop25](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/mrporkchop25) $1.53 $290 189.4x 2026-11-05 13:37 UTC

[M4A4 | The Coalition (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-field-tested) [Paavel](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Paavel) $1.52 $285 187.6x 2026-11-06 12:04 UTC

[M4A4 | The Coalition (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-field-tested) [Trleeee](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Trleeee) $1.40 $271 193.7x 2026-11-10 11:16 UTC

[M4A4 | The Coalition (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-field-tested) Hidden $1.40 $271 193.4x 2026-11-10 16:35 UTC

[M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.52 $268 176.5x 2026-11-07 19:39 UTC

[M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.52 $268 176.1x 2026-11-04 19:35 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=skinclub&case=m4a4)

[M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-field-tested) [Er Chor1](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Er%20Chor1) $1.39 $3.86 2.78x 2026-11-11 23:21 UTC

[M4A4 | Choppa (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.39 $0.20 0.14x 2026-11-11 23:21 UTC

[M4A4 | Mainframe (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-mainframe-field-tested) Hidden $1.39 $0.04 0.03x 2026-11-11 23:21 UTC

[M4A4 | Etch Lord (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-field-tested) [xtime31](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/xtime31) $1.39 $0.37 0.27x 2026-11-11 23:21 UTC

[M4A4 | Dark Blossom (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dark-blossom-minimal-wear) [HOOEY MACGOOS](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/HOOEY%20MACGOOS) $1.39 $11.12 8.00x 2026-11-11 23:16 UTC

[M4A4 | Steel Work (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.39 $0.06 0.04x 2026-11-11 23:14 UTC

[M4A4 | Poly Mag (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poly-mag-minimal-wear) [eden](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/eden) $1.39 $0.16 0.12x 2026-11-11 23:14 UTC

[M4A4 | Poly Mag (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poly-mag-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.39 $0.16 0.12x 2026-11-11 23:14 UTC

[M4A4 | Mainframe (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-mainframe-field-tested) Hidden $1.39 $0.04 0.03x 2026-11-11 23:14 UTC

[M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-factory-new) [hami](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/hami) $1.39 $7.80 5.61x 2026-11-11 23:14 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 20:47 UTC | $1.39 | 92.62% | 41 |
| 11 Nov, 14:43 UTC | $1.39 | 92.44% | 41 |
| 11 Nov, 08:39 UTC | $1.39 | 92.54% | 41 |
| 11 Nov, 02:35 UTC | $1.39 | 92.81% | 41 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $1.40 | 92.38% | 41 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $1.40 | 92.66% | 41 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $1.41 | 92.20% | 41 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $1.41 | 92.33% | 41 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $1.41 | 92.36% | 41 |
| 9 Nov, 14:11 UTC | $1.41 | 92.67% | 41 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $1.52 | 92.62% | 41 |
| 9 Nov, 01:54 UTC | $1.52 | 92.63% | 41 |
| 8 Nov, 23:40 UTC | $1.53 | 92.28% | 41 |
| 8 Nov, 17:36 UTC | $1.52 | 92.75% | 41 |
| 8 Nov, 11:31 UTC | $1.52 | 92.67% | 41 |
| 8 Nov, 05:27 UTC | $1.52 | 92.53% | 41 |
| 7 Nov, 23:23 UTC | $1.52 | 92.73% | 41 |
| 7 Nov, 17:19 UTC | $1.52 | 92.59% | 41 |
| 7 Nov, 11:15 UTC | $1.52 | 92.58% | 41 |
| 7 Nov, 05:10 UTC | $1.52 | 92.28% | 41 |
| 6 Nov, 23:06 UTC | $1.52 | 92.53% | 41 |
| 6 Nov, 17:02 UTC | $1.52 | 92.45% | 41 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $1.52 | 92.62% | 41 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $1.52 | 92.57% | 41 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $1.53 | 92.44% | 41 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $1.53 | 92.29% | 41 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $1.52 | 92.69% | 41 |
| 5 Nov, 04:38 UTC | $1.52 | 92.78% | 41 |
| 4 Nov, 22:34 UTC | $1.53 | 92.28% | 41 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $1.52 | 92.59% | 41 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.3% Ancient 0.3% classified 0.4% red 0.1% mil spec 2.8% Legendary 1.1% violet 8.2% Rare 23.2% Mythical 0.7% industrial 1.7% Uncommon 53.9% restricted 2.7% #8847ff 4.5% best hit $298 (193.8x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.62 on average: an expected loss of $7.38 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt