---
title: "Meme Party case on Skin.club: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Meme Party ($0.50) on Skin.club, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.90% from 23 items with odds, observed 92.37% over 59.4K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/meme-party
rendered: 2026-11-12T06:00Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Skin.club](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinclub) / [Meme Party](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/meme-party)

# [Skin.club](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinclub) · Meme Party

A case on Skin.club (Sticker Capsules), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/meme-party?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/meme-party?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/meme-party) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/meme-party?window=all)

Price · $0.50

Advertised RTP · 92.90% · EV $0.46 from 23 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 92.37% · 59.4K openings, odds method

Variance · 3.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 17.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 82.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 91.75% ±3.96 7,114 openings

7 days · 93.21% ±1.59 44.9K openings

30 days · 92.37% ±1.41 59.4K openings

since tracking started · 92.37% ±1.41 59.4K openings

87.0% 91.8% 96.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/meme-party?window=24h) | 7,114 | 91.75% ±3.96 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/meme-party?window=7d) | 44.9K | 93.21% ±1.59 | +0.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/meme-party) | 59.4K | 92.37% ±1.41 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/meme-party?window=all) | 59.4K | 92.37% ±1.41 | −0.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 59.5K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Sticker \| Hypnotic Surf K (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hypnotic-surf-k-foil) | 1 in 1,000 | $11.01 | 2.4% | 150 | 59.5 | 2.52× |
| [Sticker \| Magic Rush Ball (Lenticular) sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-magic-rush-ball-lenticular) | 1 in 333 | $9.52 | 6.1% | 166 | 178.4 | 0.93× |
| [Sticker \| Kawaii T (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kawaii-t-holo) | 1 in 200 | $6.68 | 7.2% | 224 | 297.4 | 0.75× |
| [Sticker \| Loving Eyes (Holo) sticker · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-loving-eyes-holo) | 1 in 200 | $5.37 | 5.8% | 286 | 297.4 | 0.96× |
| [Sticker \| Approaching Site (Foil) sticker · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-approaching-site-foil) | 1 in 143 | $2.00 | 3.0% | 406 | 416.3 | 0.98× |
| [Sticker \| Bomb Doge sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bomb-doge) | 1 in 125 | $1.76 | 3.0% | 466 | 475.8 | 0.98× |
| [Sticker \| Hidden Hero (Foil) sticker · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hidden-hero-foil) | 1 in 111 | $1.24 | 2.4% | 794 | 535.3 | 1.48× |
| [Sticker \| Kawaii Killer CT sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kawaii-killer-ct) | 1 in 56 | $0.88 | 3.4% | 1,367 | 1070.6 | 1.28× |
| [Sticker \| Pros Don't Fake sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-pros-dont-fake) | 1 in 45 | $0.84 | 4.0% | 1,844 | 1308.5 | 1.41× |
| [Sticker \| T On Cat sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-t-on-cat) | 1 in 43 | $0.76 | 3.8% | 1,369 | 1367.9 | 1.00× |
| [Sticker \| Thug Life sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-thug-life) | 1 in 43 | $0.70 | 3.5% | 1,348 | 1367.9 | 0.99× |
| [Sticker \| Boost (Holo) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-boost-holo) | 1 in 43 | $0.67 | 3.3% | 1,482 | 1367.9 | 1.08× |
| [Sticker \| Mister Chief sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mister-chief) | 1 in 40 | $0.63 | 3.4% | 1,116 | 1486.9 | 0.75× |
| [Sticker \| Zeusception (Holo) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-zeusception-holo) | 1 in 16 | $0.40 | 5.5% | 4,098 | 3806.4 | 1.08× |
| [Sticker \| This Is Fine (CT) sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-this-is-fine-ct) | 1 in 25 | $0.32 | 2.8% | 5,383 | 2379.0 | 2.26× |
| [Sticker \| Poorly Drawn IDF sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-poorly-drawn-idf) | 1 in 14 | $0.31 | 4.7% | 3,083 | 4163.3 | 0.74× |
| [Sticker \| Poorly Drawn FBI sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-poorly-drawn-fbi) | 1 in 14 | $0.30 | 4.5% | 3,695 | 4163.3 | 0.89× |
| [Sticker \| Mind Games (Holo) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mind-games-holo) | 10.7% | $0.29 | 6.7% | 5,581 | 6363.8 | 0.88× |
| [Sticker \| Door Stuck (Foil) sticker · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-door-stuck-foil) | 1 in 11 | $0.26 | 5.0% | 5,038 | 5352.8 | 0.94× |
| [Sticker \| This Is Fine (T) sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-this-is-fine-t) | 1 in 11 | $0.26 | 5.0% | 5,398 | 5352.8 | 1.01× |
| [Sticker \| Zeused sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-zeused) | 10.0% | $0.25 | 5.4% | 4,956 | 5947.5 | 0.83× |
| [Sticker \| Poorly Drawn Bloody Darryl sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-poorly-drawn-bloody-darryl) | 10.7% | $0.22 | 5.1% | 5,697 | 6363.8 | 0.90× |
| [Sticker \| Green's Problem sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-greens-problem) | 1 in 11 | $0.21 | 4.1% | 5,528 | 5352.8 | 1.03× |

Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `skinclub:apiv2/cases/meme-party`, 12 Nov, 02:51 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=skinclub&case=meme-party)

[Sticker | This Is Fine (T) sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-this-is-fine-t) Hidden $0.50 $0.26 0.52x 2026-11-12 05:59 UTC

[Sticker | Zeusception (Holo) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-zeusception-holo) Hidden $0.50 $0.40 0.80x 2026-11-12 05:59 UTC

[Sticker | This Is Fine (T) sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-this-is-fine-t) Hidden $0.50 $0.26 0.52x 2026-11-12 05:59 UTC

[Sticker | This Is Fine (T) sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-this-is-fine-t) [Lonk](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Lonk) $0.50 $0.26 0.52x 2026-11-12 05:59 UTC

[Sticker | This Is Fine (T) sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-this-is-fine-t) Hidden $0.50 $0.26 0.52x 2026-11-12 05:59 UTC

[Sticker | This Is Fine (T) sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-this-is-fine-t) Hidden $0.50 $0.26 0.52x 2026-11-12 05:59 UTC

[Sticker | Door Stuck (Foil) sticker · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-door-stuck-foil) Hidden $0.50 $0.25 0.50x 2026-11-12 05:59 UTC

[Sticker | Door Stuck (Foil) sticker · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-door-stuck-foil) [Lonk](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Lonk) $0.50 $0.25 0.50x 2026-11-12 05:59 UTC

[Sticker | This Is Fine (T) sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-this-is-fine-t) Hidden $0.50 $0.26 0.52x 2026-11-12 05:58 UTC

[Sticker | Poorly Drawn Bloody Darryl sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-poorly-drawn-bloody-darryl) Hidden $0.50 $0.22 0.44x 2026-11-12 05:58 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 12 Nov, 02:51 UTC | $0.50 | 92.90% | 23 |
| 11 Nov, 20:47 UTC | $0.51 | 91.86% | 23 |
| 11 Nov, 14:43 UTC | $0.50 | 93.32% | 23 |
| 11 Nov, 08:39 UTC | $0.51 | 92.55% | 23 |
| 11 Nov, 02:35 UTC | $0.50 | 93.13% | 23 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $0.50 | 93.41% | 23 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $0.51 | 92.02% | 23 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $0.51 | 92.36% | 23 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $0.51 | 91.98% | 23 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $0.51 | 92.33% | 23 |
| 9 Nov, 14:11 UTC | $0.52 | 92.52% | 23 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $0.54 | 93.32% | 23 |
| 9 Nov, 02:03 UTC | $0.52 | 92.82% | 23 |
| 9 Nov, 01:54 UTC | $0.52 | 92.75% | 23 |
| 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $0.53 | 92.26% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 23:40 UTC | $0.53 | 92.37% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 17:36 UTC | $0.53 | 92.22% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 11:31 UTC | $0.54 | 91.88% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 05:27 UTC | $0.54 | 92.89% | 23 |
| 7 Nov, 23:23 UTC | $0.54 | 92.74% | 23 |
| 7 Nov, 17:19 UTC | $0.54 | 92.99% | 23 |
| 7 Nov, 11:15 UTC | $0.53 | 92.94% | 23 |
| 7 Nov, 05:10 UTC | $0.53 | 93.05% | 23 |
| 6 Nov, 23:06 UTC | $0.53 | 91.85% | 23 |
| 6 Nov, 17:02 UTC | $0.55 | 91.91% | 23 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $0.54 | 92.55% | 23 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $0.55 | 92.31% | 23 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $0.55 | 91.93% | 23 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $0.54 | 92.68% | 23 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $0.53 | 92.81% | 23 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed exotic 0.1% extraordinary 0.3% remarkable 0.5% #8847ff 0.5% Legendary 10.6% blue 0.8% Rare 63.8% Mythical 19.4% high 4.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.90 on average: an expected loss of $7.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt