---
title: "Mil-Spec case on Skin.club: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Mil-Spec ($0.42) on Skin.club, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.98% from 116 items with odds, observed 91.87% over 177K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/milspec
rendered: 2026-11-11T22:36Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Skin.club](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinclub) / [Mil-Spec](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/milspec)

# [Skin.club](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinclub) · Mil-Spec

A case on Skin.club (By quality), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/milspec?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/milspec?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/milspec) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/milspec?window=all)

Price · $0.42

Advertised RTP · 92.98% · EV $0.39 from 116 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 91.87% · 177K openings, odds method

Variance · 4.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 27.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 75.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 90.50% ±3.24 16.1K openings

7 days · 91.93% ±1.12 135K openings

30 days · 91.87% ±0.98 177K openings

since tracking started · 91.87% ±0.98 177K openings

86.5% 90.5% 94.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/milspec?window=24h) | 16.1K | 90.50% ±3.24 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/milspec?window=7d) | 135K | 91.93% ±1.12 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/milspec) | 177K | 91.87% ±0.98 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/milspec?window=all) | 177K | 91.87% ±0.98 | −1.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 116 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 178K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AUG \| Carved Jade (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-carved-jade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $45.72 | 1.2% | 21 | 17.8 | 1.18× |
| [M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $31.76 | 0.8% | 16 | 17.8 | 0.90× |
| [SSG 08 \| Threat Detected (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-threat-detected-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $21.32 | 0.5% | 13 | 17.8 | 0.73× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Night Heist (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-heist-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $20.42 | 0.5% | 13 | 17.8 | 0.73× |
| [MP9 \| Setting Sun (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-setting-sun-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $18.54 | 0.5% | 26 | 17.8 | 1.46× |
| [Glock-18 \| Reactor (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-reactor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $17.78 | 0.5% | 17 | 17.8 | 0.96× |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Wings (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-wings-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $17.71 | 0.5% | 25 | 17.8 | 1.41× |
| [MAC-10 \| Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-nuclear-garden-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $17.43 | 0.4% | 22 | 17.8 | 1.24× |
| [UMP-45 \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $16.55 | 0.4% | 14 | 17.8 | 0.79× |
| [M4A4 \| Global Offensive (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-global-offensive-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $16.55 | 0.4% | 19 | 17.8 | 1.07× |
| [P250 \| Bengal Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bengal-tiger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $14.60 | 0.4% | 30 | 17.8 | 1.69× |
| [SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $12.10 | 0.3% | 22 | 17.8 | 1.24× |
| [SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $12.02 | 0.3% | 11 | 17.8 | 0.62× |
| [Tec-9 \| Toxic (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-toxic-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $11.65 | 0.3% | 19 | 17.8 | 1.07× |
| [Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $9.08 | 0.2% | 29 | 17.8 | 1.63× |
| [Glock-18 \| Green Line (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-green-line-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $8.62 | 0.2% | 19 | 17.8 | 1.07× |
| [AWP \| Acheron (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $8.47 | 0.4% | 31 | 35.6 | 0.87× |
| [Galil AR \| Dusk Ruins (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-dusk-ruins-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $7.33 | 0.4% | 38 | 35.6 | 1.07× |
| [M4A1-S \| Briefing (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-briefing-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $6.41 | 0.3% | 29 | 35.6 | 0.82× |
| [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $6.38 | 0.3% | 37 | 35.6 | 1.04× |
| [MAC-10 \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $6.34 | 0.3% | 40 | 35.6 | 1.12× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Black Limba (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-black-limba-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $5.87 | 0.3% | 27 | 35.6 | 0.76× |
| [M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $5.18 | 0.3% | 49 | 35.6 | 1.38× |
| [Tec-9 \| Isaac (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-isaac-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $5.07 | 0.4% | 64 | 53.3 | 1.20× |
| [Glock-18 \| Blue Fissure (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $4.90 | 0.4% | 31 | 53.3 | 0.58× |
| [Galil AR \| Shattered (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-shattered-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $4.86 | 0.4% | 47 | 53.3 | 0.88× |
| [USP-S \| Blueprint (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $4.48 | 0.3% | 37 | 53.3 | 0.69× |
| [SG 553 \| Wave Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-wave-spray-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $4.37 | 0.3% | 31 | 53.3 | 0.58× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $4.26 | 0.3% | 44 | 53.3 | 0.82× |
| [Tec-9 \| Blast From the Past (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-blast-from-the-past-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $4.01 | 0.3% | 49 | 53.3 | 0.92× |
| [Glock-18 \| Ironwork (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ironwork-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $3.31 | 0.3% | 64 | 53.3 | 1.20× |
| [P2000 \| Red FragCam (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-red-fragcam-field-tested) | 1 in 2,500 | $3.16 | 0.3% | 73 | 71.1 | 1.03× |
| [Galil AR \| Tuxedo (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-tuxedo-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $3.08 | 0.3% | 68 | 71.1 | 0.96× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 2,500 | $3.05 | 0.3% | 75 | 71.1 | 1.05× |
| [StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Azure Zebra (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-g3sg1-azure-zebra-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,500 | $2.89 | 0.3% | 65 | 71.1 | 0.91× |
| [SSG 08 \| Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dark-water-field-tested) | 1 in 2,500 | $2.86 | 0.3% | 84 | 71.1 | 1.18× |
| [USP-S \| Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blood-tiger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,500 | $2.84 | 0.3% | 75 | 71.1 | 1.05× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Balance (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-balance-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,500 | $2.64 | 0.3% | 57 | 71.1 | 0.80× |
| [AK-47 \| Uncharted (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $2.25 | 0.2% | 65 | 71.1 | 0.91× |
| [XM1014 \| Red Python (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-red-python-field-tested) | 1 in 2,500 | $2.04 | 0.2% | 66 | 71.1 | 0.93× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 2,500 | $1.88 | 0.2% | 84 | 71.1 | 1.18× |
| [Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-candy-apple-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $1.70 | 0.2% | 82 | 88.9 | 0.92× |
| [P2000 \| Pulse (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-pulse-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $1.67 | 0.2% | 75 | 88.9 | 0.84× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,000 | $1.57 | 0.2% | 81 | 88.9 | 0.91× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cartel (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cartel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $1.50 | 0.2% | 79 | 88.9 | 0.89× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Contaminant (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-contaminant-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $1.45 | 0.2% | 91 | 88.9 | 1.02× |
| [AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $1.40 | 0.2% | 89 | 88.9 | 1.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Slashed (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-slashed-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $1.36 | 0.2% | 86 | 88.9 | 0.97× |
| [USP-S \| Check Engine (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-factory-new) | 1 in 1,667 | $1.26 | 0.2% | 93 | 106.7 | 0.87× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Polymer (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-polymer-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,667 | $1.20 | 0.2% | 125 | 106.7 | 1.17× |
| [P90 \| Module (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-module-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,667 | $1.16 | 0.2% | 163 | 106.7 | 1.53× |
| [MAC-10 \| Lapis Gator (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-lapis-gator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,667 | $1.16 | 0.2% | 162 | 106.7 | 1.52× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Twist (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-twist-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,667 | $1.16 | 0.2% | 109 | 106.7 | 1.02× |
| [M4A4 \| Choppa (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa-factory-new) | 1 in 1,667 | $1.16 | 0.2% | 129 | 106.7 | 1.21× |
| [Glock-18 \| Catacombs (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-catacombs-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $1.14 | 0.3% | 100 | 177.8 | 0.56× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Meteorite (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-meteorite-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1.12 | 0.3% | 127 | 177.8 | 0.71× |
| [USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-tropical-breeze-factory-new) | 1 in 1,667 | $1.10 | 0.2% | 127 | 106.7 | 1.19× |
| [AWP \| Capillary (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $1.05 | 0.3% | 174 | 177.8 | 0.98× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Twist (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-twist-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $0.98 | 0.3% | 546 | 177.8 | 3.07× |
| [SSG 08 \| Memorial (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-memorial-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $0.98 | 0.3% | 186 | 177.8 | 1.05× |
| [USP-S \| Torque (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $0.96 | 0.2% | 182 | 177.8 | 1.02× |
| [MP9 \| Deadly Poison (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-deadly-poison-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $0.89 | 0.2% | 120 | 177.8 | 0.67× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Twist (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-twist-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000 | $0.83 | 0.2% | 154 | 177.8 | 0.87× |
| [Glock-18 \| Catacombs (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-catacombs-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $0.81 | 0.2% | 192 | 177.8 | 1.08× |
| [M4A4 \| Converter (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $0.80 | 0.2% | 170 | 177.8 | 0.96× |
| [AWP \| Capillary (Well-Worn) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $0.79 | 0.2% | 183 | 177.8 | 1.03× |
| [FAMAS \| Survivor Z (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-survivor-z-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $0.76 | 0.2% | 306 | 177.8 | 1.72× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-bronze-deco-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $0.69 | 0.7% | 718 | 711.3 | 1.01× |
| [AWP \| Capillary (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-field-tested) | 1 in 250 | $0.69 | 0.7% | 401 | 711.3 | 0.56× |
| [UMP-45 \| Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-late-night-transit-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $0.69 | 0.4% | 459 | 355.6 | 1.29× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Dualing Dragons (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dualing-dragons-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $0.68 | 0.7% | 404 | 711.3 | 0.57× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-minimal-wear) | 1 in 526 | $0.67 | 0.3% | 433 | 337.9 | 1.28× |
| [MP7 \| Cirrus (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-cirrus-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $0.66 | 0.5% | 634 | 533.5 | 1.19× |
| [MP9 \| Nexus (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-nexus-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $0.65 | 0.7% | 517 | 711.3 | 0.73× |
| [Tec-9 \| Ice Cap (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ice-cap-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $0.55 | 0.6% | 977 | 711.3 | 1.37× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Corinthian (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-corinthian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $0.55 | 0.6% | 1,064 | 711.3 | 1.50× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tuxedo (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tuxedo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $0.55 | 0.6% | 728 | 711.3 | 1.02× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-oxide-blaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $0.54 | 0.6% | 799 | 711.3 | 1.12× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Scumbria (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-scumbria-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $0.53 | 0.5% | 741 | 711.3 | 1.04× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Grotto (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-grotto-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $0.52 | 0.5% | 1,272 | 711.3 | 1.79× |
| [P250 \| Valence (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $0.50 | 0.5% | 1,518 | 711.3 | 2.13× |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Triqua (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-triqua-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $0.46 | 0.5% | 3,193 | 711.3 | 4.49× |
| [Tec-9 \| Sandstorm (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-sandstorm-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $0.44 | 1.1% | 4,004 | 1778.2 | 2.25× |
| [P250 \| Iron Clad (Minimal Wear) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-iron-clad-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $0.44 | 3.4% | 4,054 | 5334.7 | 0.76× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Survivalist (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-survivalist-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $0.44 | 3.4% | 2,933 | 5334.7 | 0.55× |
| [UMP-45 \| Corporal (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-corporal-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $0.43 | 2.2% | 3,493 | 3556.5 | 0.98× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Capillary (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-capillary-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $0.43 | 0.4% | 3,365 | 711.3 | 4.73× |
| [Glock-18 \| Warhawk (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-warhawk-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $0.43 | 3.3% | 4,169 | 5334.7 | 0.78× |
| [P2000 \| Oceanic (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-oceanic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $0.42 | 1.1% | 3,699 | 1778.2 | 2.08× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Shred (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-shred-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $0.42 | 3.2% | 3,565 | 5334.7 | 0.67× |
| [P250 \| Ripple (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-ripple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $0.41 | 3.1% | 3,450 | 5334.7 | 0.65× |
| [M4A1-S \| VariCamo (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-varicamo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $0.41 | 1.0% | 3,209 | 1778.2 | 1.80× |
| [Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sacrifice-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $0.41 | 2.1% | 4,181 | 3556.5 | 1.18× |
| [Glock-18 \| Clear Polymer (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-clear-polymer-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.41 | 2.1% | 4,749 | 3556.5 | 1.34× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Outbreak (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-outbreak-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $0.40 | 3.1% | 3,201 | 5334.7 | 0.60× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Urban Rubble (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-urban-rubble-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $0.39 | 3.0% | 5,166 | 5334.7 | 0.97× |
| [AUG \| Ricochet (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-ricochet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $0.39 | 3.0% | 4,720 | 5334.7 | 0.88× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Zander (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-zander-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $0.37 | 2.8% | 4,643 | 5334.7 | 0.87× |
| [StatTrak™ Negev \| Dazzle (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-negev-dazzle-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $0.37 | 2.8% | 4,935 | 5334.7 | 0.93× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-bronze-deco-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $0.36 | 2.8% | 4,480 | 5334.7 | 0.84× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Yorick (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-yorick-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $0.34 | 2.6% | 4,955 | 5334.7 | 0.93× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Dualing Dragons (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dualing-dragons-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $0.34 | 2.6% | 4,365 | 5334.7 | 0.82× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Ventilators (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-ventilators-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $0.33 | 2.5% | 5,354 | 5334.7 | 1.00× |
| [USP-S \| Night Ops (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-night-ops-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $0.30 | 2.3% | 5,321 | 5334.7 | 1.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $0.30 | 2.3% | 5,323 | 5334.7 | 1.00× |
| [AUG \| Triqua (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-triqua-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $0.29 | 2.2% | 5,404 | 5334.7 | 1.01× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Origami (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-origami-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $0.28 | 2.2% | 5,257 | 5334.7 | 0.99× |
| [SG 553 \| Danger Close (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-danger-close-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $0.26 | 2.0% | 5,453 | 5334.7 | 1.02× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Circaetus (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-circaetus-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $0.26 | 2.0% | 5,346 | 5334.7 | 1.00× |
| [XM1014 \| Mockingbird (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-mockingbird-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $0.15 | 1.2% | 5,983 | 5334.7 | 1.12× |
| [FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $0.13 | 1.0% | 5,429 | 5334.7 | 1.02× |
| [XM1014 \| Copperflage (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-copperflage-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $0.13 | 1.0% | 5,843 | 5334.7 | 1.10× |
| [M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poly-mag-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $0.12 | 0.9% | 5,640 | 5334.7 | 1.06× |
| [P250 \| Cassette (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cassette-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $0.10 | 0.8% | 5,599 | 5334.7 | 1.05× |
| [MAC-10 \| Ensnared (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ensnared-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $0.08 | 0.6% | 5,339 | 5334.7 | 1.00× |
| [MP5-SD \| Necro Jr. (Well-Worn) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-necro-jr-well-worn) | 1 in 24 | $0.07 | 0.8% | 5,763 | 7468.6 | 0.77× |

Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `skinclub:apiv2/cases/milspec`, 11 Nov, 20:47 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AUG | Carved Jade (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-carved-jade-factory-new) [meserias](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/meserias) $0.42 $46.10 109.8x 2026-11-11 21:58 UTC

[AUG | Carved Jade (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-carved-jade-factory-new) [StyL](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/StyL) $0.42 $44.40 105.7x 2026-11-10 23:26 UTC

[AUG | Carved Jade (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-carved-jade-factory-new) [K.J.E ♛](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/K.J.E%20%E2%99%9B) $0.43 $44.04 102.4x 2026-11-09 14:08 UTC

[AUG | Carved Jade (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-carved-jade-factory-new) Hidden $0.43 $43.81 101.9x 2026-11-09 10:02 UTC

[AUG | Carved Jade (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-carved-jade-factory-new) [bangbang\_jj](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/bangbang_jj) $0.43 $43.80 101.9x 2026-11-09 12:47 UTC

[AUG | Carved Jade (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-carved-jade-factory-new) [bangbang\_jj](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/bangbang_jj) $0.43 $43.80 101.9x 2026-11-09 12:45 UTC

[AUG | Carved Jade (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-carved-jade-factory-new) Hidden $0.42 $43.63 103.9x 2026-11-09 20:38 UTC

[AUG | Carved Jade (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-carved-jade-factory-new) Hidden $0.42 $43.62 103.9x 2026-11-10 17:06 UTC

[AUG | Carved Jade (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-carved-jade-factory-new) [IndianaGramos](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/IndianaGramos) $0.43 $43.57 101.3x 2026-11-07 22:12 UTC

[AUG | Carved Jade (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-carved-jade-factory-new) [IndianaGramos](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/IndianaGramos) $0.43 $43.57 101.3x 2026-11-07 22:11 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=skinclub&case=milspec)

[Glock-18 | Catacombs (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-catacombs-field-tested) Hidden $0.42 $0.81 1.93x 2026-11-11 22:34 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Origami (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-origami-field-tested) Hidden $0.42 $0.28 0.67x 2026-11-11 22:34 UTC

[AWP | Capillary (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-field-tested) Hidden $0.42 $0.69 1.64x 2026-11-11 22:34 UTC

[M4A4 | Poly Mag (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poly-mag-battle-scarred) [Blaze](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Blaze) $0.42 $0.15 0.36x 2026-11-11 22:34 UTC

[MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Well-Worn) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-necro-jr-well-worn) [BhatZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/BhatZ) $0.42 $0.07 0.17x 2026-11-11 22:33 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Survivalist (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-survivalist-minimal-wear) [ZCツ](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/ZC%E3%83%84) $0.42 $0.44 1.05x 2026-11-11 22:33 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Dualing Dragons (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dualing-dragons-field-tested) Hidden $0.42 $0.34 0.81x 2026-11-11 22:32 UTC

[P250 | Ripple (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-ripple-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.42 $0.41 0.98x 2026-11-11 22:32 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Outbreak (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-outbreak-factory-new) Hidden $0.42 $0.39 0.93x 2026-11-11 22:32 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Dualing Dragons (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dualing-dragons-field-tested) [Blaze](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Blaze) $0.42 $0.34 0.81x 2026-11-11 22:32 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 20:47 UTC | $0.42 | 92.98% | 116 |
| 11 Nov, 14:43 UTC | $0.42 | 92.49% | 116 |
| 11 Nov, 08:39 UTC | $0.42 | 92.45% | 116 |
| 11 Nov, 02:35 UTC | $0.42 | 91.54% | 116 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $0.42 | 92.26% | 116 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $0.42 | 91.52% | 116 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $0.42 | 91.68% | 116 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $0.42 | 92.00% | 116 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $0.42 | 92.47% | 116 |
| 9 Nov, 14:11 UTC | $0.42 | 92.58% | 116 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $0.43 | 92.85% | 116 |
| 9 Nov, 01:54 UTC | $0.43 | 92.62% | 116 |
| 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $0.43 | 92.28% | 116 |
| 8 Nov, 23:40 UTC | $0.43 | 92.93% | 116 |
| 8 Nov, 17:36 UTC | $0.43 | 92.05% | 116 |
| 8 Nov, 11:31 UTC | $0.43 | 92.11% | 116 |
| 8 Nov, 05:27 UTC | $0.43 | 92.04% | 116 |
| 7 Nov, 23:23 UTC | $0.43 | 92.28% | 116 |
| 7 Nov, 17:19 UTC | $0.43 | 92.02% | 116 |
| 7 Nov, 11:15 UTC | $0.43 | 91.79% | 116 |
| 7 Nov, 05:10 UTC | $0.43 | 92.11% | 116 |
| 6 Nov, 23:06 UTC | $0.43 | 92.10% | 116 |
| 6 Nov, 17:02 UTC | $0.43 | 91.91% | 116 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $0.43 | 92.61% | 116 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $0.43 | 93.02% | 116 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $0.43 | 93.31% | 116 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $0.44 | 91.66% | 116 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $0.44 | 91.57% | 116 |
| 5 Nov, 04:38 UTC | $0.44 | 92.07% | 116 |
| 4 Nov, 22:34 UTC | $0.43 | 93.09% | 116 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 3.0% Rare 41.2% mil spec 36.8% blue 0.4% #4b69ff 15.2% uncommon 0.0% Mil Spec Grade 0.0% milspec 3.4% best hit $46.10 (109.8x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.98 on average: an expected loss of $7.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt