---
title: "New to Town case on Skin.club: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "New to Town ($0.60) on Skin.club, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.89% from 17 items with odds, observed 92.85% over 384K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/new-to-town
rendered: 2026-11-13T02:43Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Skin.club](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinclub) / [New to Town](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/new-to-town)

# [Skin.club](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinclub) · New to Town

A case on Skin.club (Bestseller Cases), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/new-to-town?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/new-to-town?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/new-to-town) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/new-to-town?window=all)

Price · $0.60

Advertised RTP · 91.89% · EV $0.55 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 92.85% · 384K openings, odds method

Variance · 2.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 34.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 76.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 93.43% ±1.87 30.4K openings

7 days · 92.70% ±0.66 252K openings

30 days · 92.85% ±0.54 384K openings

since tracking started · 92.85% ±0.54 384K openings

91.0% 93.5% 96.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/new-to-town?window=24h) | 30.4K | 93.43% ±1.87 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/new-to-town?window=7d) | 252K | 92.70% ±0.66 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/new-to-town) | 384K | 92.85% ±0.54 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/new-to-town?window=all) | 384K | 92.85% ±0.54 | +0.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 385K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $46.50 | 2.5% | 133 | 115.4 | 1.15× |
| [AUG \| Momentum (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $12.49 | 2.3% | 390 | 384.6 | 1.01× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $8.04 | 2.2% | 520 | 576.9 | 0.90× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $5.37 | 1.9% | 816 | 769.2 | 1.06× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $4.36 | 1.6% | 790 | 769.2 | 1.03× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-field-tested) | 1 in 455 | $3.78 | 1.5% | 851 | 846.2 | 1.01× |
| [Galil AR \| Kami (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-kami-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $1.60 | 5.8% | 7,666 | 7692.3 | 1.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Re-Entry (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-re-entry-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $1.35 | 4.9% | 7,459 | 7692.3 | 0.97× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Cirrus (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-cirrus-field-tested) | 1 in 48 | $1.09 | 4.2% | 8,076 | 8076.9 | 1.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Umbral Rabbit (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-umbral-rabbit-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $0.70 | 8.9% | 30,180 | 26923.1 | 1.12× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Apocalypto (Field-Tested) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-apocalypto-field-tested) | 10.0% | $0.64 | 11.6% | 35,040 | 38461.6 | 0.91× |
| [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-field-tested) | 10.0% | $0.48 | 8.7% | 38,498 | 38461.6 | 1.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-field-tested) | 10.0% | $0.44 | 8.0% | 38,420 | 38461.6 | 1.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-field-tested) | 10.0% | $0.41 | 7.4% | 38,441 | 38461.6 | 1.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Banana Cannon (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-banana-cannon-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.37 | 13.4% | 52,955 | 76923.2 | 0.69× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Dualing Dragons (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dualing-dragons-well-worn) | 10.0% | $0.32 | 5.8% | 60,887 | 38461.6 | 1.58× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Circaetus (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-circaetus-minimal-wear) | 16.0% | $0.32 | 9.3% | 63,494 | 61538.6 | 1.03× |

Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `skinclub:apiv2/cases/new-to-town`, 13 Nov, 02:20 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AWP | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) [Golden Rider](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Golden%20Rider) $0.59 $47.36 80.27x 2026-11-07 09:13 UTC

[AWP | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.60 $47.22 78.70x 2026-11-09 03:58 UTC

[AWP | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.60 $47.22 78.70x 2026-11-09 03:58 UTC

[AWP | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.59 $47.20 80.00x 2026-11-07 10:39 UTC

[AWP | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) [Pickle Dickle](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Pickle%20Dickle) $0.59 $47.11 79.85x 2026-11-09 01:51 UTC

[AWP | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.59 $47.11 79.85x 2026-11-09 01:38 UTC

[AWP | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.59 $47.07 79.78x 2026-11-07 02:47 UTC

[AWP | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.59 $47.06 79.76x 2026-11-09 04:50 UTC

[AWP | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.60 $47.01 78.35x 2026-11-08 21:41 UTC

[AWP | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.60 $47.01 78.35x 2026-11-08 03:29 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=skinclub&case=new-to-town)

[Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-field-tested) Hidden $0.60 $0.44 0.73x 2026-11-13 02:42 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-banana-cannon-field-tested) Hidden $0.60 $0.37 0.62x 2026-11-13 02:42 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Circaetus (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-circaetus-minimal-wear) [BingBong](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/BingBong) $0.60 $0.32 0.53x 2026-11-13 02:42 UTC

[AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) [Moncho Chavea](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Moncho%20Chavea) $0.60 $4.36 7.27x 2026-11-13 02:41 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-field-tested) [TIKTOK/EAGLE561JALLA](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/TIKTOK%2FEAGLE561JALLA) $0.60 $0.44 0.73x 2026-11-13 02:41 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Circaetus (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-circaetus-minimal-wear) [Northside](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Northside) $0.60 $0.32 0.53x 2026-11-13 02:41 UTC

[M4A4 | Magnesium (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-field-tested) Hidden $0.60 $0.48 0.80x 2026-11-13 02:37 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-field-tested) Hidden $0.60 $0.41 0.68x 2026-11-13 02:37 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-field-tested) Hidden $0.60 $0.41 0.68x 2026-11-13 02:37 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Dualing Dragons (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dualing-dragons-well-worn) [Moncho Chavea](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Moncho%20Chavea) $0.60 $0.32 0.53x 2026-11-13 02:37 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 13 Nov, 02:20 UTC | $0.60 | 91.89% | 17 |
| 12 Nov, 22:54 UTC | $0.60 | 92.62% | 17 |
| 12 Nov, 19:03 UTC | $0.61 | 92.93% | 17 |
| 12 Nov, 15:00 UTC | $0.61 | 91.77% | 17 |
| 12 Nov, 08:56 UTC | $0.60 | 92.98% | 17 |
| 12 Nov, 02:51 UTC | $0.61 | 91.99% | 17 |
| 11 Nov, 20:47 UTC | $0.60 | 93.04% | 17 |
| 11 Nov, 14:43 UTC | $0.60 | 91.94% | 17 |
| 11 Nov, 08:39 UTC | $0.60 | 92.79% | 17 |
| 11 Nov, 02:35 UTC | $0.60 | 92.59% | 17 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $0.60 | 92.40% | 17 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $0.59 | 92.93% | 17 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $0.59 | 93.24% | 17 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $0.59 | 93.05% | 17 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $0.60 | 92.34% | 17 |
| 9 Nov, 14:11 UTC | $0.59 | 92.80% | 17 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $0.60 | 91.81% | 17 |
| 9 Nov, 01:54 UTC | $0.59 | 92.85% | 17 |
| 8 Nov, 23:40 UTC | $0.60 | 92.60% | 17 |
| 8 Nov, 17:36 UTC | $0.60 | 92.89% | 17 |
| 8 Nov, 11:31 UTC | $0.60 | 92.28% | 17 |
| 8 Nov, 05:27 UTC | $0.60 | 92.94% | 17 |
| 7 Nov, 23:23 UTC | $0.60 | 91.82% | 17 |
| 7 Nov, 17:19 UTC | $0.59 | 92.73% | 17 |
| 7 Nov, 11:15 UTC | $0.59 | 93.06% | 17 |
| 7 Nov, 05:10 UTC | $0.60 | 92.43% | 17 |
| 6 Nov, 23:06 UTC | $0.59 | 93.00% | 17 |
| 6 Nov, 17:02 UTC | $0.60 | 92.45% | 17 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $0.60 | 92.50% | 17 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $0.60 | 91.90% | 17 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 3 10.0% covert 0.0% classified 0.1% restricted 2.2% Legendary 0.6% mil spec 22.0% Rare 2.1% Mythical 27.0% #4b69ff 20.0% blue 16.0% best hit $47.36 (80.27x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.89 on average: an expected loss of $8.11 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt