---
title: "Nightmare case on Skin.club: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Nightmare ($4.26) on Skin.club, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.54% from 34 items with odds, observed 96.77% over 15.4K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/nightmare-case
rendered: 2026-11-11T23:34Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Skin.club](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinclub) / [Nightmare](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/nightmare-case)

# [Skin.club](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinclub) · Nightmare

A case on Skin.club (Our Special), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/nightmare-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/nightmare-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/nightmare-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/nightmare-case?window=all)

Price · $4.26

Advertised RTP · 92.54% · EV $3.94 from 34 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 96.77% · 15.4K openings, odds method

Variance · 7.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 23 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 87.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 90.29% ±14.55 1,416 openings

7 days · 97.12% ±5.01 12.4K openings

30 days · 96.77% ±4.51 15.4K openings

since tracking started · 96.77% ±4.51 15.4K openings

75.0% 90.3% 105.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/nightmare-case?window=24h) | 1,416 | 90.29% ±14.6 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/nightmare-case?window=7d) | 12.4K | 97.12% ±5.01 | +1.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/nightmare-case) | 15.4K | 96.77% ±4.51 | +1.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/nightmare-case?window=all) | 15.4K | 96.77% ±4.51 | +1.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 15.4K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $240 | 3.0% | 2 | 7.7 | 0.26× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $199 | 2.5% | 18 | 7.7 | 2.34× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $156 | 2.0% | 10 | 7.7 | 1.30× |
| [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $105 | 1.3% | 60 | 7.7 | 7.79× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $104 | 1.3% | 5 | 7.7 | 0.65× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 1,667 | $95.06 | 1.4% | 27 | 9.2 | 2.92× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 1,493 | $94.71 | 1.6% | 6 | 10.3 | 0.58× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 1,429 | $65.94 | 1.2% | 11 | 10.8 | 1.02× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $65.72 | 1.7% | 51 | 15.4 | 3.31× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 455 | $60.14 | 3.4% | 15 | 33.9 | 0.44× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $54.34 | 5.5% | 38 | 61.6 | 0.62× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 250 | $53.54 | 5.4% | 26 | 61.6 | 0.42× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $45.30 | 4.6% | 46 | 61.6 | 0.75× |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-field-tested) | 1 in 222 | $37.43 | 4.3% | 62 | 69.3 | 0.89× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 167 | $32.09 | 4.9% | 100 | 92.5 | 1.08× |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-field-tested) | 1 in 154 | $20.16 | 3.3% | 25 | 100.2 | 0.25× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-atheris-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $17.46 | 3.1% | 112 | 107.9 | 1.04× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-paw-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $12.97 | 2.3% | 120 | 107.9 | 1.11× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 139 | $12.59 | 2.3% | 113 | 111.0 | 1.02× |
| [UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-primal-saber-field-tested) | 1 in 133 | $12.48 | 2.4% | 33 | 115.6 | 0.29× |
| [AUG \| Syd Mead (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-syd-mead-field-tested) | 1 in 110 | $12.22 | 2.8% | 43 | 140.2 | 0.31× |
| [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-minimal-wear) | 1 in 91 | $9.95 | 2.8% | 188 | 169.5 | 1.11× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-cortex-field-tested) | 1 in 83 | $8.86 | 2.7% | 413 | 184.9 | 2.23× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 80 | $7.12 | 2.3% | 177 | 193.1 | 0.92× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) | 1 in 67 | $6.66 | 2.5% | 212 | 231.1 | 0.92× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $4.21 | 2.1% | 480 | 308.2 | 1.56× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-night-terror-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $4.11 | 3.1% | 431 | 462.3 | 0.93× |
| [AWP \| PAW (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $3.13 | 3.3% | 1,038 | 631.8 | 1.64× |
| [AWP \| Worm God (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $2.23 | 4.5% | 1,984 | 1232.8 | 1.61× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-night-terror-minimal-wear) | 12.0% | $1.81 | 5.5% | 1,881 | 1849.2 | 1.02× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tacticat-minimal-wear) | 13.0% | $1.43 | 4.7% | 2,040 | 2003.3 | 1.02× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-well-worn) | 14.4% | $0.65 | 2.4% | 583 | 2219.0 | 0.26× |
| [USP-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-field-tested) | 15.0% | $0.51 | 1.9% | 2,355 | 2311.5 | 1.02× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-field-tested) | 16.0% | $0.44 | 1.8% | 2,705 | 2465.6 | 1.10× |

Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `skinclub:apiv2/cases/nightmare_case`, 11 Nov, 20:47 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-field-tested) Hidden $4.23 $245 57.83x 2026-11-10 17:34 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-field-tested) Hidden $4.26 $245 57.42x 2026-11-10 02:00 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=skinclub&case=nightmare-case)

[AK-47 | Point Disarray (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-factory-new) [N-HH](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/N-HH) $4.26 $54.34 12.76x 2026-11-11 23:31 UTC

[AWP | Atheris (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-minimal-wear) [Boņux](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Bo%C5%86ux) $4.26 $17.46 4.10x 2026-11-11 23:25 UTC

[AWP | Worm God (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-field-tested) Hidden $4.26 $2.23 0.52x 2026-11-11 23:25 UTC

[M4A1-S | Night Terror (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-well-worn) Hidden $4.26 $0.65 0.15x 2026-11-11 23:25 UTC

[AWP | Atheris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-field-tested) Hidden $4.26 $4.21 0.99x 2026-11-11 23:25 UTC

[M4A1-S | Nitro (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-field-tested) [Naderr](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Naderr) $4.26 $0.44 0.10x 2026-11-11 23:25 UTC

[USP-S | Flashback (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-field-tested) Hidden $4.26 $0.51 0.12x 2026-11-11 23:23 UTC

[M4A1-S | Nitro (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-field-tested) [Atomic](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Atomic) $4.26 $0.44 0.10x 2026-11-11 23:23 UTC

[M4A1-S | Nightmare (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) Hidden $4.26 $6.66 1.56x 2026-11-11 23:23 UTC

[AWP | Worm God (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-field-tested) Hidden $4.26 $2.23 0.52x 2026-11-11 23:23 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:43 UTC | $4.26 | 92.54% | 34 |
| 11 Nov, 02:35 UTC | $4.25 | 92.46% | 34 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $4.23 | 92.50% | 34 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $4.26 | 92.46% | 34 |
| 9 Nov, 14:11 UTC | $4.57 | 92.44% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 01:54 UTC | $4.58 | 92.45% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 17:36 UTC | $4.63 | 92.42% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 05:27 UTC | $4.59 | 92.56% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 17:19 UTC | $4.60 | 92.47% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 05:10 UTC | $4.57 | 92.46% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 17:02 UTC | $4.56 | 92.56% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $4.58 | 92.44% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $4.55 | 92.52% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 04:38 UTC | $4.54 | 92.57% | 29 |
| 4 Nov, 14:12 UTC | $4.54 | 92.45% | 29 |
| 4 Nov, 04:45 UTC | $4.55 | 92.45% | 29 |
| 3 Nov, 15:55 UTC | $4.54 | 92.50% | 29 |
| 3 Nov, 01:40 UTC | $4.55 | 92.55% | 29 |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $4.58 | 92.50% | 29 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 1.5% classified 3.1% gold 0.1% Ancient 0.7% red 0.1% Immortal 0.2% restricted 70.2% Mythical 19.8% pink 3.2% Legendary 1.2% best hit $245 (57.83x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.54 on average: an expected loss of $7.46 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt