---
title: "Operation Breakout Weapon on Skin.club: odds & RTP"
description: "Operation Breakout Weapon ($2.31) on Skin.club, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.68% from 50 items with odds, observed 94.47% over 18.2K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/operationbreakout
rendered: 2026-11-11T22:50Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Skin.club](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinclub) / [Operation Breakout Weapon](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/operationbreakout)

# [Skin.club](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinclub) · Operation Breakout Weapon

A case on Skin.club (Classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/operationbreakout?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/operationbreakout?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/operationbreakout) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/operationbreakout?window=all)

Price · $2.31

Advertised RTP · 92.68% · EV $2.14 from 50 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 94.47% · 18.2K openings, odds method

Variance · 16.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 21 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 69.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 107.55% ±15.60 2,661 openings

7 days · 95.26% ±6.73 14K openings

30 days · 94.47% ±5.90 18.2K openings

since tracking started · 94.47% ±5.90 18.2K openings

88.0% 106.0% 124.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/operationbreakout?window=24h) | 2,661 | 107.55% ±15.6 | +1.9σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/operationbreakout?window=7d) | 14K | 95.26% ±6.73 | +0.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/operationbreakout) | 18.2K | 94.47% ±5.90 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/operationbreakout?window=all) | 18.2K | 94.47% ±5.90 | +0.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 50 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 18.2K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [P90 \| Asiimov (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $240 | 2.2% | 4 | 3.6 | 1.10× |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $209 | 2.0% | 4 | 3.6 | 1.10× |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,500 | $189 | 3.5% | 8 | 7.3 | 1.10× |
| [P90 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,500 | $189 | 3.5% | 2 | 7.3 | 0.27× |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 2,500 | $182 | 3.4% | 12 | 7.3 | 1.65× |
| [P90 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 2,500 | $181 | 3.4% | 8 | 7.3 | 1.10× |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $63.82 | 1.2% | 12 | 7.3 | 1.65× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-water-elemental-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $59.70 | 1.1% | 11 | 7.3 | 1.51× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fowl-play-factory-new) | 1 in 1,250 | $48.97 | 1.8% | 18 | 14.6 | 1.24× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-water-elemental-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $35.28 | 1.6% | 17 | 18.2 | 0.93× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-factory-new) | 1 in 714 | $30.50 | 2.0% | 19 | 25.5 | 0.75× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-conspiracy-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $30.39 | 1.4% | 21 | 18.2 | 1.15× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fowl-play-minimal-wear) | 1 in 667 | $22.10 | 1.5% | 39 | 27.3 | 1.43× |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-minimal-wear) | 1 in 667 | $21.51 | 1.5% | 38 | 27.3 | 1.39× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-conspiracy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 667 | $20.86 | 1.5% | 51 | 27.3 | 1.87× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fowl-play-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $20.44 | 1.9% | 60 | 36.4 | 1.65× |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-field-tested) | 1 in 323 | $20.31 | 2.9% | 48 | 56.4 | 0.85× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $20.20 | 2.8% | 35 | 54.6 | 0.64× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-field-tested) | 1 in 278 | $19.98 | 3.4% | 70 | 65.5 | 1.07× |
| [P2000 \| Ivory (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ivory-factory-new) | 1 in 263 | $9.27 | 1.6% | 93 | 69.2 | 1.34× |
| [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-tigris-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $9.14 | 2.1% | 65 | 91.0 | 0.71× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $6.50 | 1.5% | 67 | 91.0 | 0.74× |
| [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-osiris-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $4.11 | 1.0% | 122 | 91.0 | 1.34× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Supernova (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-supernova-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $3.99 | 0.9% | 112 | 91.0 | 1.23× |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Koi (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-koi-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $3.98 | 1.1% | 97 | 109.2 | 0.89× |
| [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-tigris-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $3.77 | 1.8% | 126 | 182.1 | 0.69× |
| [P250 \| Supernova (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-supernova-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $3.71 | 1.7% | 203 | 182.1 | 1.12× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-osiris-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $3.64 | 1.7% | 282 | 182.1 | 1.55× |
| [Nova \| Koi (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-koi-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $3.48 | 1.6% | 275 | 182.1 | 1.51× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $3.29 | 1.5% | 341 | 182.1 | 1.87× |
| [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-osiris-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $3.02 | 2.8% | 255 | 364.1 | 0.70× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Supernova (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-supernova-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $2.60 | 2.4% | 363 | 364.1 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-osiris-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $2.51 | 2.3% | 332 | 364.1 | 0.91× |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Koi (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-koi-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $2.47 | 2.3% | 361 | 364.1 | 0.99× |
| [P250 \| Supernova (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-supernova-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $2.45 | 2.3% | 318 | 364.1 | 0.87× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-osiris-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $2.43 | 2.3% | 331 | 364.1 | 0.91× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-osiris-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $2.42 | 2.3% | 348 | 364.1 | 0.96× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $2.40 | 2.2% | 339 | 364.1 | 0.93× |
| [Nova \| Koi (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-koi-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $2.37 | 2.2% | 384 | 364.1 | 1.05× |
| [Nova \| Koi (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-koi-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $2.35 | 2.2% | 346 | 364.1 | 0.95× |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Koi (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-koi-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $2.21 | 2.1% | 306 | 364.1 | 0.84× |
| [MP7 \| Urban Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-urban-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $1.14 | 1.1% | 249 | 364.1 | 0.68× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Urban Hazard (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-urban-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $1.06 | 1.5% | 516 | 546.2 | 0.94× |
| [SSG 08 \| Abyss (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $0.92 | 1.3% | 1,102 | 546.2 | 2.02× |
| [P2000 \| Ivory (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ivory-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $0.50 | 1.4% | 1,166 | 1092.4 | 1.07× |
| [UMP-45 \| Labyrinth (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-labyrinth-factory-new) | 10.0% | $0.45 | 2.1% | 1,987 | 1820.6 | 1.09× |
| [SSG 08 \| Abyss (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.45 | 1.5% | 1,189 | 1274.4 | 0.93× |
| [Negev \| Desert-Strike (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-desert-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $0.43 | 1.8% | 1,404 | 1638.5 | 0.86× |
| [MP7 \| Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-urban-hazard-minimal-wear) | 13.0% | $0.36 | 2.2% | 2,478 | 2366.8 | 1.05× |
| [Negev \| Desert-Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-desert-strike-minimal-wear) | 14.7% | $0.33 | 2.3% | 2,172 | 2676.3 | 0.81× |

Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `skinclub:apiv2/cases/operationbreakout`, 11 Nov, 20:47 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[P90 | Asiimov (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-factory-new) [ZoMbiS](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/ZoMbiS) $2.30 $248 107.7x 2026-11-05 07:18 UTC

[P90 | Asiimov (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-factory-new) [♿Fernet](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/%E2%99%BFFernet) $2.28 $246 107.8x 2026-11-03 04:06 UTC

[P90 | Asiimov (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-factory-new) Hidden $2.35 $243 103.4x 2026-11-09 13:46 UTC

[P90 | Asiimov (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-factory-new) Hidden $2.31 $240 104.0x 2026-11-11 21:52 UTC

[M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-factory-new) [The Meown in Black](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/The%20Meown%20in%20Black) $2.29 $204 89.07x 2026-11-10 22:42 UTC

[M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-factory-new) [The Meown in Black](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/The%20Meown%20in%20Black) $2.29 $204 89.07x 2026-11-10 22:41 UTC

[M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-factory-new) [Captain\_Stone](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Captain_Stone) $2.28 $198 86.80x 2026-11-03 15:46 UTC

[M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-factory-new) [BulviuCEO](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/BulviuCEO) $2.24 $197 88.08x 2026-11-10 07:21 UTC

[M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-factory-new) [BulviuCEO](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/BulviuCEO) $2.25 $197 87.69x 2026-11-10 07:21 UTC

[M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-factory-new) [krumpli](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/krumpli) $2.35 $194 82.60x 2026-11-09 11:01 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=skinclub&case=operationbreakout)

[CZ75-Auto | Tigris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-factory-new) [FimpeN](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/FimpeN) $2.31 $6.53 2.83x 2026-11-11 22:46 UTC

[MP7 | Urban Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-urban-hazard-factory-new) Hidden $2.31 $1.14 0.49x 2026-11-11 22:46 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Tigris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-factory-new) Hidden $2.31 $6.53 2.83x 2026-11-11 22:46 UTC

[Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-desert-strike-factory-new) [FimpeN](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/FimpeN) $2.31 $0.42 0.18x 2026-11-11 22:46 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Tigris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-factory-new) [snackbox\_-](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/snackbox_-) $2.31 $9.05 3.92x 2026-11-11 22:45 UTC

[P2000 | Ivory (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ivory-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.31 $0.50 0.22x 2026-11-11 22:44 UTC

[MP7 | Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-urban-hazard-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.31 $0.35 0.15x 2026-11-11 22:44 UTC

[Negev | Desert-Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-desert-strike-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.31 $0.33 0.14x 2026-11-11 22:44 UTC

[P2000 | Ivory (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ivory-minimal-wear) [FimpeN](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/FimpeN) $2.31 $0.50 0.22x 2026-11-11 22:44 UTC

[Negev | Desert-Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-desert-strike-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.31 $0.33 0.14x 2026-11-11 22:43 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 20:47 UTC | $2.31 | 92.68% | 50 |
| 11 Nov, 14:43 UTC | $2.31 | 92.52% | 50 |
| 11 Nov, 08:39 UTC | $2.30 | 92.52% | 50 |
| 11 Nov, 02:35 UTC | $2.29 | 92.53% | 50 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $2.29 | 92.51% | 50 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $2.29 | 92.35% | 50 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $2.26 | 92.67% | 50 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $2.24 | 92.46% | 50 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $2.24 | 92.40% | 50 |
| 9 Nov, 14:11 UTC | $2.25 | 92.40% | 50 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $2.34 | 92.68% | 50 |
| 9 Nov, 02:03 UTC | $2.34 | 92.64% | 50 |
| 9 Nov, 01:54 UTC | $2.35 | 92.35% | 50 |
| 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $2.34 | 92.69% | 50 |
| 8 Nov, 23:40 UTC | $2.34 | 92.53% | 50 |
| 8 Nov, 17:36 UTC | $2.34 | 92.51% | 50 |
| 8 Nov, 11:31 UTC | $2.34 | 92.40% | 50 |
| 8 Nov, 05:27 UTC | $2.33 | 92.43% | 50 |
| 7 Nov, 23:23 UTC | $2.33 | 92.64% | 50 |
| 7 Nov, 17:19 UTC | $2.33 | 92.32% | 50 |
| 7 Nov, 11:15 UTC | $2.32 | 92.69% | 50 |
| 7 Nov, 05:10 UTC | $2.32 | 92.35% | 50 |
| 6 Nov, 23:06 UTC | $2.32 | 92.61% | 50 |
| 6 Nov, 17:02 UTC | $2.32 | 92.33% | 50 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $2.32 | 92.50% | 50 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $2.32 | 92.61% | 50 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $2.32 | 92.65% | 50 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $2.32 | 92.30% | 50 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $2.30 | 92.55% | 50 |
| 5 Nov, 04:38 UTC | $2.29 | 92.67% | 50 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.2% classified 1.8% Legendary 0.3% Rare 46.1% Mythical 18.1% restricted 9.5% violet 2.0% mil spec 12.0% Mil Spec 10.0% best hit $248 (107.7x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.68 on average: an expected loss of $7.32 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt