---
title: "Radiant case on Skin.club: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Radiant ($0.36) on Skin.club, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.52% from 33 items with odds, observed 92.73% over 115K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/radiant-collection
rendered: 2026-11-12T08:24Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Skin.club](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinclub) / [Radiant](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/radiant-collection)

# [Skin.club](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinclub) · Radiant

A case on Skin.club (Collection Vault), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/radiant-collection?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/radiant-collection?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/radiant-collection) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/radiant-collection?window=all)

Price · $0.36

Advertised RTP · 91.52% · EV $0.33 from 33 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 92.73% · 115K openings, odds method

Variance · 13.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 79.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 100.16% ±6.85 10.9K openings

7 days · 92.55% ±2.44 87.1K openings

30 days · 92.73% ±2.12 115K openings

since tracking started · 92.73% ±2.12 115K openings

89.5% 98.5% 107.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/radiant-collection?window=24h) | 10.9K | 100.16% ±6.85 | +2.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/radiant-collection?window=7d) | 87.1K | 92.55% ±2.44 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/radiant-collection) | 115K | 92.73% ±2.12 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/radiant-collection?window=all) | 115K | 92.73% ±2.12 | +0.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 33 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 115K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $20.75 | 18.9% | 348 | 345.8 | 1.01× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $8.51 | 7.7% | 364 | 345.8 | 1.05× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $5.17 | 4.7% | 364 | 345.8 | 1.05× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-factory-new) | 1 in 286 | $5.02 | 5.3% | 367 | 403.4 | 0.91× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $2.55 | 3.1% | 463 | 461.0 | 1.00× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-minimal-wear) | 1 in 217 | $2.46 | 3.4% | 537 | 530.2 | 1.01× |
| [Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-factory-new) | 1 in 152 | $1.17 | 2.3% | 811 | 760.7 | 1.07× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-field-tested) | 1 in 108 | $1.02 | 2.9% | 1,066 | 1071.9 | 0.99× |
| [P250 \| Red Tide (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-tide-factory-new) | 1 in 71 | $0.78 | 3.3% | 1,576 | 1613.5 | 0.98× |
| [SSG 08 \| Blush Pour (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blush-pour-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $0.68 | 3.1% | 1,733 | 1728.8 | 1.00× |
| [AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-arsenic-spill-factory-new) | 1 in 63 | $0.63 | 3.1% | 1,761 | 1844.0 | 0.95× |
| [MP9 \| Shredded (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-shredded-factory-new) | 1 in 63 | $0.61 | 3.0% | 1,890 | 1844.0 | 1.02× |
| [M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-factory-new) | 1 in 59 | $0.54 | 2.8% | 1,892 | 1959.3 | 0.97× |
| [Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $0.47 | 2.9% | 2,357 | 2305.1 | 1.02× |
| [P250 \| Red Tide (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-tide-minimal-wear) | 1 in 48 | $0.41 | 2.6% | 2,454 | 2420.3 | 1.01× |
| [AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-arsenic-spill-minimal-wear) | 1 in 45 | $0.40 | 2.7% | 2,569 | 2535.6 | 1.01× |
| [SSG 08 \| Blush Pour (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blush-pour-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $0.36 | 3.3% | 2,648 | 3457.6 | 0.77× |
| [MP9 \| Shredded (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-shredded-minimal-wear) | 1 in 45 | $0.34 | 2.3% | 3,389 | 2535.6 | 1.34× |
| [M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $0.30 | 2.7% | 3,506 | 3457.6 | 1.01× |
| [Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Field-Tested) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.19 | 2.3% | 4,771 | 4610.1 | 1.03× |
| [Galil AR \| O-Ranger (Factory New) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-o-ranger-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.17 | 2.1% | 4,769 | 4610.1 | 1.03× |
| [M4A4 \| Steel Work (Factory New) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.15 | 1.8% | 4,616 | 4610.1 | 1.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $0.14 | 1.9% | 5,077 | 5071.1 | 1.00× |
| [P250 \| Red Tide (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-tide-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.14 | 1.7% | 5,069 | 4610.1 | 1.10× |
| [MP9 \| Shredded (Well-Worn) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-shredded-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $0.14 | 2.1% | 4,826 | 5762.6 | 0.84× |
| [Tec-9 \| Citric Acid (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-citric-acid-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.13 | 1.6% | 5,123 | 4610.1 | 1.11× |
| [SG 553 \| Basket Halftone (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-basket-halftone-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $0.12 | 1.8% | 5,389 | 5762.6 | 0.94× |
| [Dual Berettas \| BorDeux (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-bordeux-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $0.05 | 0.9% | 7,630 | 6684.7 | 1.14× |
| [MP7 \| Short Ochre (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-short-ochre-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $0.05 | 0.9% | 7,853 | 6684.7 | 1.17× |
| [P250 \| Sedimentary (Minimal Wear) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sedimentary-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $0.05 | 0.9% | 8,258 | 6915.2 | 1.19× |
| [Tec-9 \| Citric Acid (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-citric-acid-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $0.04 | 0.8% | 7,284 | 8067.7 | 0.90× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Pink Pearl (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-pink-pearl-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $0.03 | 0.6% | 7,034 | 8067.7 | 0.87× |
| [FAMAS \| Grey Ghost (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-grey-ghost-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.02 | 0.5% | 7,459 | 9220.2 | 0.81× |

Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `skinclub:apiv2/cases/radiant-collection`, 12 Nov, 02:51 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-minimal-wear) [TΛIしUNG](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/T%CE%9BI%E3%81%97UNG) $0.37 $22.10 59.73x 2026-11-06 00:07 UTC

[AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.38 $22.10 58.16x 2026-11-06 00:07 UTC

[AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-minimal-wear) [Kauro](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Kauro) $0.37 $22.10 59.73x 2026-11-05 23:49 UTC

[AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-minimal-wear) [Marcus.](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Marcus.) $0.38 $22.10 58.16x 2026-11-05 23:45 UTC

[AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-minimal-wear) [ＴａｔｏＺ](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/%EF%BC%B4%EF%BD%81%EF%BD%94%EF%BD%8F%EF%BC%BA) $0.37 $22.10 59.73x 2026-11-05 23:27 UTC

[AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-minimal-wear) [QazWolf](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/QazWolf) $0.37 $22.10 59.73x 2026-11-05 23:17 UTC

[AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-minimal-wear) [QazWolf](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/QazWolf) $0.37 $22.10 59.73x 2026-11-05 23:14 UTC

[AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-minimal-wear) [Martin Matte](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Martin%20Matte) $0.37 $22.10 59.73x 2026-11-05 23:13 UTC

[AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-minimal-wear) [Ezimuschi Clan ツ](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Ezimuschi%20Clan%20%E3%83%84) $0.37 $22.09 59.70x 2026-11-08 02:44 UTC

[AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-minimal-wear) [FatalRush](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/FatalRush) $0.37 $22.09 59.70x 2026-11-08 02:37 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=skinclub&case=radiant-collection)

[Tec-9 | Citric Acid (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-citric-acid-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.36 $0.04 0.11x 2026-11-12 08:23 UTC

[MP9 | Shredded (Well-Worn) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-shredded-well-worn) [Tjick.](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Tjick.) $0.36 $0.15 0.42x 2026-11-12 08:23 UTC

[Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Field-Tested) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-field-tested) [NAUGHTYYYY](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/NAUGHTYYYY) $0.36 $0.19 0.53x 2026-11-12 08:23 UTC

[AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-minimal-wear) [bagsy](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/bagsy) $0.36 $20.88 58.00x 2026-11-12 08:22 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Pink Pearl (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-pink-pearl-factory-new) Hidden $0.36 $0.03 0.08x 2026-11-12 08:22 UTC

[Tec-9 | Citric Acid (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-citric-acid-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.36 $0.04 0.11x 2026-11-12 08:22 UTC

[MP9 | Shredded (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-shredded-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.36 $0.34 0.94x 2026-11-12 08:22 UTC

[Tec-9 | Citric Acid (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-citric-acid-minimal-wear) [jukna](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/jukna) $0.36 $0.04 0.11x 2026-11-12 08:22 UTC

[SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blush-pour-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.36 $0.35 0.97x 2026-11-12 08:22 UTC

[Dual Berettas | BorDeux (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-bordeux-factory-new) [:p.i.g:](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/%3Ap.i.g%3A) $0.36 $0.05 0.14x 2026-11-12 08:22 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 12 Nov, 02:51 UTC | $0.36 | 91.52% | 33 |
| 11 Nov, 20:47 UTC | $0.36 | 91.83% | 33 |
| 11 Nov, 14:43 UTC | $0.36 | 91.39% | 33 |
| 11 Nov, 08:39 UTC | $0.36 | 91.56% | 33 |
| 11 Nov, 02:35 UTC | $0.36 | 92.26% | 33 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $0.36 | 91.94% | 33 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $0.36 | 91.73% | 33 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $0.36 | 92.14% | 33 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $0.36 | 92.42% | 33 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $0.36 | 92.62% | 33 |
| 9 Nov, 14:11 UTC | $0.36 | 92.46% | 33 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $0.37 | 91.33% | 33 |
| 9 Nov, 01:54 UTC | $0.37 | 93.27% | 33 |
| 8 Nov, 23:40 UTC | $0.37 | 92.57% | 33 |
| 8 Nov, 17:36 UTC | $0.37 | 92.05% | 33 |
| 8 Nov, 11:31 UTC | $0.37 | 92.19% | 33 |
| 8 Nov, 05:27 UTC | $0.37 | 92.60% | 33 |
| 7 Nov, 23:23 UTC | $0.37 | 92.62% | 33 |
| 7 Nov, 17:19 UTC | $0.37 | 92.69% | 33 |
| 7 Nov, 11:15 UTC | $0.37 | 92.62% | 33 |
| 7 Nov, 05:10 UTC | $0.37 | 92.22% | 33 |
| 6 Nov, 23:06 UTC | $0.37 | 92.36% | 33 |
| 6 Nov, 17:02 UTC | $0.37 | 92.93% | 33 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $0.37 | 92.70% | 33 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $0.37 | 93.16% | 33 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $0.38 | 91.65% | 33 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $0.37 | 93.32% | 33 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $0.37 | 92.86% | 33 |
| 5 Nov, 04:38 UTC | $0.37 | 93.47% | 33 |
| 4 Nov, 22:34 UTC | $0.37 | 92.68% | 33 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed Legendary 0.3% pink 0.3% violet 0.3% Mythical 2.1% blue 12.9% Rare 21.9% milspec 1.6% common 4.0% blueLight 8.0% Uncommon 24.0% Common 18.6% #5e98d9 6.0% best hit $22.10 (59.73x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.52 on average: an expected loss of $8.48 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt