---
title: "Rainbow case on Skin.club: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Rainbow ($3.02) on Skin.club, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.41% from 41 items with odds, observed 92.66% over 30.5K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/rainbow
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:42Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Skin.club](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinclub) / [Rainbow](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/rainbow)

# [Skin.club](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinclub) · Rainbow

A case on Skin.club (Our Special), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/rainbow?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/rainbow?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/rainbow) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/rainbow?window=all)

Price · $3.02

Advertised RTP · 92.41% · EV $2.79 from 41 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 92.66% · 30.5K openings, odds method

Variance · 14.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 29 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 93.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 101.11% ±14.50 2,557 openings

7 days · 91.24% ±4.75 23.5K openings

30 days · 92.66% ±4.18 30.5K openings

since tracking started · 92.66% ±4.18 30.5K openings

86.0% 101.3% 116.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/rainbow?window=24h) | 2,557 | 101.11% ±14.5 | +1.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/rainbow?window=7d) | 23.5K | 91.24% ±4.75 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/rainbow) | 30.5K | 92.66% ±4.18 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/rainbow?window=all) | 30.5K | 92.66% ±4.18 | +0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 41 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 30.5K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $397 | 1.4% | 1 | 3.1 | 0.33× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $303 | 2.2% | 7 | 6.1 | 1.15× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $238 | 1.7% | 3 | 6.1 | 0.49× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $195 | 1.4% | 7 | 6.1 | 1.15× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $138 | 1.0% | 10 | 6.1 | 1.64× |
| [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $124 | 1.3% | 20 | 9.2 | 2.19× |
| [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,667 | $118 | 2.5% | 15 | 18.3 | 0.82× |
| [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 1,667 | $116 | 2.5% | 19 | 18.3 | 1.04× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,667 | $114 | 2.4% | 16 | 18.3 | 0.87× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 1,667 | $111 | 2.4% | 21 | 18.3 | 1.15× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,429 | $92.33 | 2.3% | 28 | 21.4 | 1.31× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 1,429 | $84.75 | 2.1% | 21 | 21.4 | 0.98× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,250 | $82.58 | 2.4% | 9 | 24.4 | 0.37× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,250 | $66.97 | 1.9% | 22 | 24.4 | 0.90× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Undertow (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-undertow-factory-new) | 1 in 1,250 | $51.60 | 1.5% | 27 | 24.4 | 1.11× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,250 | $46.42 | 1.3% | 23 | 24.4 | 0.94× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 1,250 | $44.06 | 1.3% | 29 | 24.4 | 1.19× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000 | $41.68 | 1.5% | 34 | 30.5 | 1.11× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Undertow (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-undertow-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $40.31 | 1.4% | 29 | 30.5 | 0.95× |
| [P250 \| Undertow (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-undertow-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $38.99 | 1.4% | 48 | 30.5 | 1.57× |
| [FAMAS \| Pulse (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $32.82 | 1.2% | 64 | 30.5 | 2.10× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $32.21 | 1.2% | 25 | 30.5 | 0.82× |
| [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $26.00 | 0.9% | 137 | 30.5 | 4.49× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $21.50 | 2.3% | 38 | 91.5 | 0.42× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $18.77 | 2.0% | 81 | 91.5 | 0.89× |
| [SG 553 \| Integrale (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $16.15 | 1.7% | 92 | 91.5 | 1.01× |
| [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $15.37 | 2.2% | 88 | 122.0 | 0.72× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 1 in 167 | $12.79 | 2.7% | 212 | 183.0 | 1.16× |
| [G3SG1 \| Flux (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-flux-minimal-wear) | 1 in 167 | $10.58 | 2.3% | 144 | 183.0 | 0.79× |
| [FAMAS \| Pulse (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-minimal-wear) | 1 in 167 | $9.30 | 2.0% | 182 | 183.0 | 0.99× |
| [G3SG1 \| Flux (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-flux-field-tested) | 1 in 167 | $7.15 | 1.5% | 153 | 183.0 | 0.84× |
| [G3SG1 \| Flux (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-flux-battle-scarred) | 1 in 167 | $6.86 | 1.5% | 202 | 183.0 | 1.10× |
| [SG 553 \| Integrale (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-field-tested) | 1 in 83 | $6.36 | 2.7% | 365 | 366.0 | 1.00× |
| [MAG-7 \| Heat (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $1.98 | 2.3% | 2,663 | 1006.6 | 2.65× |
| [AUG \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-amber-fade-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $1.63 | 5.8% | 3,033 | 3050.4 | 0.99× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-red-astor-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $1.55 | 5.6% | 3,504 | 3050.4 | 1.15× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-moonrise-field-tested) | 10.0% | $1.50 | 5.4% | 527 | 3050.4 | 0.17× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Exposure (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-exposure-field-tested) | 14.7% | $1.24 | 6.5% | 4,173 | 4484.1 | 0.93× |
| [AUG \| Random Access (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-random-access-field-tested) | 12.0% | $1.20 | 5.2% | 4,285 | 3660.5 | 1.17× |
| [Galil AR \| Signal (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-signal-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $0.93 | 5.0% | 5,320 | 4575.6 | 1.16× |
| [SSG 08 \| Acid Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-acid-fade-factory-new) | 18.0% | $0.60 | 3.9% | 4,827 | 5490.7 | 0.88× |

Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `skinclub:apiv2/cases/rainbow`, 11 Nov, 14:43 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-factory-new) Hidden $3.02 $397 131.4x 2026-11-11 15:23 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-factory-new) [witwear](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/witwear) $3.02 $397 131.4x 2026-11-11 14:25 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) Hidden $3.14 $303 96.60x 2026-11-03 14:54 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) Hidden $3.13 $303 96.91x 2026-11-03 13:20 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) [Agent007-Jari](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Agent007-Jari) $3.04 $303 99.77x 2026-11-10 16:00 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) [Agent007-Jari](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Agent007-Jari) $3.03 $303 100.1x 2026-11-10 15:59 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) [Kek24](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Kek24) $3.17 $303 95.68x 2026-11-08 23:41 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) Hidden $3.15 $301 95.42x 2026-11-05 09:10 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) [𝙹𝙺𝟷𝟼](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/%F0%9D%99%B9%F0%9D%99%BA%F0%9D%9F%B7%F0%9D%9F%BC) $3.17 $301 94.81x 2026-11-06 14:41 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) Hidden $3.15 $301 95.41x 2026-11-06 14:15 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=skinclub&case=rainbow)

[AUG | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-amber-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $3.03 $1.62 0.53x 2026-11-11 20:40 UTC

[SSG 08 | Acid Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-acid-fade-factory-new) [LamaDingDong](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/LamaDingDong) $3.03 $0.62 0.20x 2026-11-11 20:40 UTC

[MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-field-tested) Hidden $3.03 $116 38.43x 2026-11-11 20:40 UTC

[MAG-7 | Heat (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heat-minimal-wear) Hidden $3.03 $1.97 0.65x 2026-11-11 20:40 UTC

[StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Moonrise (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-moonrise-field-tested) Hidden $3.03 $1.51 0.50x 2026-11-11 20:40 UTC

[StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Exposure (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-exposure-field-tested) [LamaDingDong](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/LamaDingDong) $3.03 $1.23 0.41x 2026-11-11 20:40 UTC

[StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Exposure (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-exposure-field-tested) Hidden $3.03 $1.23 0.41x 2026-11-11 20:40 UTC

[AUG | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-amber-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $3.03 $1.62 0.53x 2026-11-11 20:40 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-red-astor-minimal-wear) Hidden $3.03 $1.62 0.53x 2026-11-11 20:40 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-red-astor-minimal-wear) [LamaDingDong](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/LamaDingDong) $3.03 $1.62 0.53x 2026-11-11 20:40 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:43 UTC | $3.02 | 92.41% | 41 |
| 11 Nov, 08:39 UTC | $3.02 | 92.52% | 41 |
| 11 Nov, 02:35 UTC | $3.03 | 92.39% | 41 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $3.03 | 92.38% | 41 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $3.02 | 92.56% | 41 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $3.04 | 92.48% | 41 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $3.03 | 92.57% | 41 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $3.15 | 92.55% | 40 |
| 9 Nov, 14:11 UTC | $3.16 | 92.56% | 40 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $3.15 | 92.57% | 40 |
| 9 Nov, 01:54 UTC | $3.17 | 92.54% | 40 |
| 8 Nov, 23:40 UTC | $3.17 | 92.39% | 40 |
| 8 Nov, 17:36 UTC | $3.17 | 92.41% | 40 |
| 8 Nov, 11:31 UTC | $3.17 | 92.63% | 40 |
| 8 Nov, 05:27 UTC | $3.16 | 92.49% | 40 |
| 7 Nov, 23:23 UTC | $3.17 | 92.49% | 40 |
| 7 Nov, 17:19 UTC | $3.17 | 92.56% | 40 |
| 7 Nov, 11:15 UTC | $3.15 | 92.61% | 40 |
| 7 Nov, 05:10 UTC | $3.12 | 92.59% | 40 |
| 6 Nov, 23:06 UTC | $3.15 | 92.42% | 40 |
| 6 Nov, 17:02 UTC | $3.15 | 92.50% | 40 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $3.17 | 92.54% | 40 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $3.14 | 92.57% | 40 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $3.16 | 92.43% | 40 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $3.16 | 92.37% | 40 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $3.15 | 92.49% | 40 |
| 5 Nov, 04:38 UTC | $3.15 | 92.51% | 40 |
| 4 Nov, 22:34 UTC | $3.15 | 92.47% | 40 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $3.13 | 92.57% | 40 |
| 4 Nov, 14:12 UTC | $3.13 | 92.46% | 40 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.8% red 0.1% Legendary 0.2% classified 4.5% restricted 25.1% Ancient 0.1% Mythical 40.6% #d32ee6 0.6% Rare 10.0% mil spec 18.0% best hit $397 (131.4x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.41 on average: an expected loss of $7.59 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt