---
title: "Restricted case on Skin.club: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Restricted ($0.91) on Skin.club, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.30% from 107 items with odds, observed 92.33% over 156K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/restricted
rendered: 2026-11-11T21:26Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Skin.club](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinclub) / [Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/restricted)

# [Skin.club](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinclub) · Restricted

A case on Skin.club (By quality), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/restricted?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/restricted?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/restricted) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/restricted?window=all)

Price · $0.91

Advertised RTP · 92.30% · EV $0.84 from 107 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 92.33% · 156K openings, odds method

Variance · 3.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 22.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 82.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 91.77% ±2.99 15.7K openings

7 days · 92.24% ±1.09 127K openings

30 days · 92.33% ±0.98 156K openings

since tracking started · 92.33% ±0.98 156K openings

88.0% 91.8% 95.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/restricted?window=24h) | 15.7K | 91.77% ±2.99 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/restricted?window=7d) | 127K | 92.24% ±1.09 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/restricted) | 156K | 92.33% ±0.98 | −0.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/restricted?window=all) | 156K | 92.33% ±0.98 | −0.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 107 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 156K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Glock-18 \| Franklin (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-franklin-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $90.68 | 1.1% | 16 | 15.6 | 1.02× |
| [Galil AR \| Phoenix Blacklight (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-phoenix-blacklight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $80.56 | 1.0% | 13 | 15.6 | 0.83× |
| [M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $38.89 | 0.5% | 15 | 15.6 | 0.96× |
| [Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $38.53 | 0.5% | 54 | 15.6 | 3.45× |
| [FAMAS \| Pulse (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $33.07 | 0.4% | 25 | 15.6 | 1.60× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $32.58 | 0.4% | 14 | 15.6 | 0.89× |
| [AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $30.10 | 0.7% | 29 | 31.3 | 0.93× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Marina (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $26.10 | 0.6% | 21 | 31.3 | 0.67× |
| [FAMAS \| Styx (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-styx-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $18.16 | 0.4% | 31 | 31.3 | 0.99× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hemoglobin-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $13.50 | 0.3% | 29 | 31.3 | 0.93× |
| [Tec-9 \| Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-whiteout-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $13.49 | 0.3% | 42 | 31.3 | 1.34× |
| [Galil AR \| Firefight (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $12.78 | 0.3% | 50 | 31.3 | 1.60× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Copper Galaxy (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-copper-galaxy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,500 | $11.69 | 0.6% | 53 | 62.6 | 0.85× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 2,500 | $11.14 | 0.5% | 47 | 62.6 | 0.75× |
| [MP7 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $10.66 | 0.5% | 53 | 62.6 | 0.85× |
| [AWP \| Exoskeleton (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exoskeleton-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,500 | $10.44 | 0.5% | 44 | 62.6 | 0.70× |
| [Glock-18 \| Grinder (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-grinder-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $9.62 | 0.5% | 53 | 62.6 | 0.85× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-boost-protocol-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $9.48 | 0.5% | 53 | 62.6 | 0.85× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Directive (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-directive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,500 | $8.37 | 0.4% | 72 | 62.6 | 1.15× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $7.78 | 0.4% | 77 | 62.6 | 1.23× |
| [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,500 | $7.51 | 0.4% | 67 | 62.6 | 1.07× |
| [P90 \| Blind Spot (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-blind-spot-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $6.70 | 0.4% | 80 | 78.2 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Neural Net (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-neural-net-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $6.64 | 0.4% | 61 | 78.2 | 0.78× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mulberry-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $6.60 | 0.4% | 67 | 78.2 | 0.86× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Syndicate (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-syndicate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $6.59 | 0.4% | 73 | 78.2 | 0.93× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $6.30 | 0.4% | 64 | 78.2 | 0.82× |
| [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $6.23 | 0.4% | 92 | 78.2 | 1.18× |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $5.82 | 0.3% | 64 | 78.2 | 0.82× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Charged Up (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-charged-up-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $5.67 | 0.3% | 77 | 78.2 | 0.98× |
| [Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $5.24 | 0.3% | 95 | 78.2 | 1.21× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $5.10 | 0.3% | 69 | 78.2 | 0.88× |
| [MP9 \| Mount Fuji (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-mount-fuji-well-worn) | 1 in 2,000 | $5.03 | 0.3% | 83 | 78.2 | 1.06× |
| [Nova \| Toy Soldier (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-toy-soldier-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $4.99 | 0.3% | 89 | 78.2 | 1.14× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Limelight (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-limelight-factory-new) | 1 in 1,429 | $4.77 | 0.4% | 84 | 109.5 | 0.77× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-factory-new) | 1 in 1,429 | $4.47 | 0.4% | 94 | 109.5 | 0.86× |
| [MP7 \| Powercore (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-powercore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,429 | $4.42 | 0.4% | 106 | 109.5 | 0.97× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Enforcer (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-enforcer-factory-new) | 1 in 1,429 | $4.23 | 0.4% | 131 | 109.5 | 1.20× |
| [MAC-10 \| Derailment (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-derailment-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,429 | $4.23 | 0.4% | 119 | 109.5 | 1.09× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-field-tested) | 1 in 1,429 | $4.22 | 0.4% | 119 | 109.5 | 1.09× |
| [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-field-tested) | 1 in 1,429 | $4.05 | 0.3% | 134 | 109.5 | 1.22× |
| [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,429 | $3.96 | 0.3% | 95 | 109.5 | 0.87× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Naga (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-naga-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,250 | $3.74 | 0.4% | 108 | 125.2 | 0.86× |
| [StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Agent (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp5-sd-agent-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,250 | $3.66 | 0.3% | 112 | 125.2 | 0.89× |
| [AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-arctic-wolf-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,250 | $3.37 | 0.3% | 125 | 125.2 | 1.00× |
| [AWP \| PAW (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,250 | $3.16 | 0.3% | 118 | 125.2 | 0.94× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-boost-protocol-field-tested) | 1 in 1,250 | $2.99 | 0.3% | 119 | 125.2 | 0.95× |
| [M4A4 \| Griffin (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-field-tested) | 1 in 1,250 | $2.97 | 0.3% | 128 | 125.2 | 1.02× |
| [Nova \| Rising Sun (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rising-sun-factory-new) | 1 in 1,250 | $2.96 | 0.3% | 118 | 125.2 | 0.94× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Retrobution (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-retrobution-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,250 | $2.92 | 0.3% | 121 | 125.2 | 0.97× |
| [Glock-18 \| Glockingbird (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-glockingbird-factory-new) | 1 in 1,250 | $2.91 | 0.3% | 133 | 125.2 | 1.06× |
| [P90 \| Wave Breaker (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-wave-breaker-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $2.75 | 0.3% | 118 | 156.5 | 0.75× |
| [P250 \| Wingshot (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,250 | $2.74 | 0.3% | 158 | 125.2 | 1.26× |
| [AWP \| Worm God (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $2.62 | 0.3% | 161 | 156.5 | 1.03× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Urban Shock (Minimal Wear) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-urban-shock-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $2.50 | 0.3% | 164 | 156.5 | 1.05× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $2.50 | 0.3% | 129 | 156.5 | 0.82× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-osiris-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $2.43 | 0.3% | 235 | 156.5 | 1.50× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-osiris-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $2.42 | 0.3% | 251 | 156.5 | 1.60× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $2.41 | 0.3% | 252 | 156.5 | 1.61× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-battle-scarred) | 1 in 500 | $2.28 | 0.5% | 242 | 313.0 | 0.77× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Fuel Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-fuel-rod-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $2.22 | 0.5% | 260 | 313.0 | 0.83× |
| [SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $2.14 | 0.5% | 227 | 313.0 | 0.73× |
| [MAG-7 \| Praetorian (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-praetorian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $2.11 | 0.5% | 310 | 313.0 | 0.99× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-pole-position-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $2.01 | 0.5% | 357 | 313.0 | 1.14× |
| [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Apocalypto (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-apocalypto-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $1.98 | 0.5% | 290 | 313.0 | 0.93× |
| [MAG-7 \| BI83 Spectrum (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-bi83-spectrum-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $1.90 | 0.5% | 335 | 313.0 | 1.07× |
| [Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-avalanche-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $1.85 | 0.4% | 414 | 313.0 | 1.32× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Tosai (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-tosai-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $1.78 | 0.4% | 523 | 313.0 | 1.67× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $1.77 | 0.4% | 398 | 313.0 | 1.27× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $1.67 | 1.0% | 443 | 782.4 | 0.57× |
| [P2000 \| Acid Etched (Minimal Wear) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-acid-etched-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $1.62 | 0.4% | 537 | 313.0 | 1.72× |
| [AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-arctic-wolf-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $1.61 | 0.4% | 665 | 313.0 | 2.12× |
| [MP5-SD \| Kitbash (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-kitbash-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $1.60 | 0.4% | 338 | 313.0 | 1.08× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Powercore (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-powercore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $1.52 | 0.4% | 439 | 313.0 | 1.40× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-serpent-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $1.52 | 0.4% | 339 | 313.0 | 1.08× |
| [SG 553 \| Darkwing (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-darkwing-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $1.51 | 0.9% | 865 | 782.4 | 1.11× |
| [Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $1.43 | 0.9% | 514 | 782.4 | 0.66× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-red-astor-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $1.38 | 0.8% | 907 | 782.4 | 1.16× |
| [Tec-9 \| Re-Entry (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-re-entry-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $1.36 | 0.8% | 638 | 782.4 | 0.82× |
| [UMP-45 \| Scaffold (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-scaffold-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $1.33 | 0.8% | 943 | 782.4 | 1.21× |
| [SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $1.31 | 1.6% | 948 | 1564.9 | 0.61× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Directive (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-directive-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $1.31 | 0.8% | 781 | 782.4 | 1.00× |
| [P90 \| Chopper (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $1.30 | 0.8% | 919 | 782.4 | 1.17× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Fuel Rod (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-fuel-rod-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $1.28 | 0.8% | 951 | 782.4 | 1.22× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-pole-position-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $1.27 | 0.8% | 851 | 782.4 | 1.09× |
| [P90 \| Vent Rush (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-vent-rush-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $1.25 | 0.7% | 947 | 782.4 | 1.21× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Retrobution (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-retrobution-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $1.24 | 0.7% | 777 | 782.4 | 0.99× |
| [SG 553 \| Phantom (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-phantom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $1.18 | 1.4% | 1,167 | 1564.9 | 0.75× |
| [SG 553 \| Phantom (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-phantom-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $1.12 | 1.3% | 1,425 | 1564.9 | 0.91× |
| [P250 \| Nevermore (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $1.05 | 1.3% | 1,628 | 1564.9 | 1.04× |
| [MP5-SD \| Gauss (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-gauss-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $1.02 | 1.2% | 1,445 | 1564.9 | 0.92× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $0.85 | 1.0% | 1,571 | 1564.9 | 1.00× |
| [G3SG1 \| Dream Glade (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-dream-glade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $0.85 | 1.0% | 1,577 | 1564.9 | 1.01× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $0.84 | 1.0% | 1,568 | 1564.9 | 1.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.78 | 1.9% | 4,206 | 3129.7 | 1.34× |
| [Galil AR \| Connexion (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-connexion-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $0.77 | 1.8% | 3,896 | 3129.7 | 1.24× |
| [UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $0.75 | 1.8% | 3,159 | 3129.7 | 1.01× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Space Cat (Minimal Wear) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-space-cat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $0.71 | 2.5% | 6,070 | 4694.6 | 1.29× |
| [MP5-SD \| Kitbash (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-kitbash-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $0.70 | 2.5% | 5,256 | 4694.6 | 1.12× |
| [P2000 \| Acid Etched (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-acid-etched-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.65 | 3.9% | 6,485 | 7824.4 | 0.83× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Apocalypto (Field-Tested) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-apocalypto-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $0.62 | 2.2% | 6,670 | 4694.6 | 1.42× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Enforcer (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-enforcer-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.59 | 4.9% | 10,850 | 10954.1 | 0.99× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Space Cat (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-space-cat-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.58 | 4.8% | 10,839 | 10954.1 | 0.99× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $0.56 | 4.7% | 8,364 | 10954.1 | 0.76× |
| [P250 \| Inferno (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-inferno-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.51 | 4.3% | 12,574 | 10954.1 | 1.15× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-well-worn) | 10.0% | $0.46 | 5.5% | 11,870 | 15648.7 | 0.76× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Flora Carnivora (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-flora-carnivora-field-tested) | 10.0% | $0.42 | 5.0% | 17,963 | 15648.7 | 1.15× |
| [P90 \| Vent Rush (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-vent-rush-field-tested) | 11.8% | $0.38 | 5.3% | 16,542 | 18465.5 | 0.90× |

Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `skinclub:apiv2/cases/restricted`, 11 Nov, 20:47 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Glock-18 | Franklin (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-franklin-factory-new) Hidden $0.91 $97.05 106.6x 2026-11-02 23:21 UTC

[Glock-18 | Franklin (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-franklin-factory-new) Hidden $0.91 $96.33 105.9x 2026-11-03 15:41 UTC

[Glock-18 | Franklin (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-franklin-factory-new) [Theo Atacant Imprevizibil](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Theo%20Atacant%20Imprevizibil) $0.91 $96.33 105.9x 2026-11-03 14:33 UTC

[Glock-18 | Franklin (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-franklin-factory-new) [ActaEstFabula](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/ActaEstFabula) $0.91 $96.12 105.6x 2026-11-03 21:23 UTC

[Glock-18 | Franklin (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-franklin-factory-new) [siuuuuuuuuuu](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/siuuuuuuuuuu) $0.90 $95.68 106.3x 2026-11-04 07:13 UTC

[Glock-18 | Franklin (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-franklin-factory-new) [Viggefalun10 #skinape](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Viggefalun10%20%23skinape) $0.90 $95.53 106.1x 2026-11-04 12:36 UTC

[Glock-18 | Franklin (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-franklin-factory-new) [Viggefalun10 #skinape](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Viggefalun10%20%23skinape) $0.90 $95.53 106.1x 2026-11-04 12:36 UTC

[Glock-18 | Franklin (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-franklin-factory-new) [HecTHOR](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/HecTHOR) $0.91 $94.84 104.2x 2026-11-05 03:56 UTC

[Glock-18 | Franklin (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-franklin-factory-new) [himbo](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/himbo) $0.92 $94.32 102.5x 2026-11-05 14:53 UTC

[Glock-18 | Franklin (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-franklin-factory-new) Hidden $0.92 $92.50 100.5x 2026-11-06 20:36 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=skinclub&case=restricted)

[SCAR-20 | Enforcer (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-enforcer-field-tested) [kontesus](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/kontesus) $0.91 $0.59 0.65x 2026-11-11 21:25 UTC

[MP5-SD | Kitbash (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-kitbash-minimal-wear) [Chikenfatty](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Chikenfatty) $0.91 $0.70 0.77x 2026-11-11 21:25 UTC

[UMP-45 | Scaffold (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-scaffold-well-worn) [kontesus](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/kontesus) $0.91 $1.33 1.46x 2026-11-11 21:25 UTC

[P2000 | Acid Etched (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-acid-etched-field-tested) [Chikenfatty](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Chikenfatty) $0.91 $0.65 0.71x 2026-11-11 21:25 UTC

[Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-glockingbird-factory-new) [Sahnecop](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Sahnecop) $0.91 $2.91 3.20x 2026-11-11 21:23 UTC

[P250 | Inferno (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-inferno-field-tested) Hidden $0.91 $0.52 0.57x 2026-11-11 21:23 UTC

[P90 | Vent Rush (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-vent-rush-field-tested) Hidden $0.91 $0.39 0.43x 2026-11-11 21:23 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-space-cat-field-tested) Hidden $0.91 $0.58 0.64x 2026-11-11 21:23 UTC

[P90 | Vent Rush (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-vent-rush-field-tested) [Ponty](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Ponty) $0.91 $0.39 0.43x 2026-11-11 21:23 UTC

[MP5-SD | Gauss (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-gauss-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.91 $1.05 1.15x 2026-11-11 21:23 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 20:47 UTC | $0.91 | 92.30% | 107 |
| 11 Nov, 14:43 UTC | $0.91 | 92.08% | 107 |
| 11 Nov, 08:39 UTC | $0.91 | 92.35% | 107 |
| 11 Nov, 02:35 UTC | $0.91 | 92.18% | 107 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $0.91 | 92.30% | 107 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $0.91 | 92.40% | 107 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $0.91 | 92.46% | 107 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $0.91 | 92.15% | 107 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $0.91 | 92.60% | 107 |
| 9 Nov, 14:11 UTC | $0.90 | 92.76% | 107 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $0.93 | 92.52% | 107 |
| 9 Nov, 02:03 UTC | $0.93 | 92.82% | 107 |
| 9 Nov, 01:54 UTC | $0.94 | 92.09% | 107 |
| 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $0.93 | 92.98% | 107 |
| 8 Nov, 23:40 UTC | $0.94 | 92.04% | 107 |
| 8 Nov, 17:36 UTC | $0.94 | 92.10% | 107 |
| 8 Nov, 11:31 UTC | $0.94 | 92.38% | 107 |
| 8 Nov, 05:27 UTC | $0.94 | 92.32% | 107 |
| 7 Nov, 23:23 UTC | $0.94 | 92.05% | 107 |
| 7 Nov, 17:19 UTC | $0.93 | 92.50% | 107 |
| 7 Nov, 11:15 UTC | $0.92 | 92.88% | 107 |
| 7 Nov, 05:10 UTC | $0.92 | 92.62% | 107 |
| 6 Nov, 23:06 UTC | $0.92 | 92.44% | 107 |
| 6 Nov, 17:02 UTC | $0.92 | 92.26% | 107 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $0.91 | 92.99% | 107 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $0.91 | 92.44% | 107 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $0.91 | 92.95% | 107 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $0.92 | 92.27% | 107 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $0.92 | 92.10% | 107 |
| 5 Nov, 04:38 UTC | $0.91 | 92.69% | 107 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 3 3.3% Mythical 44.3% restricted 26.0% uncommon 0.2% violet 13.4% #8847ff 2.7% rare 0.1% Restricted 10.0% best hit $97.05 (106.6x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.30 on average: an expected loss of $7.70 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt