---
title: "The Rivalry case on Skin.club: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "The Rivalry ($4.28) on Skin.club, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.55% from 15 items with odds, observed 93.38% over 20.5K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/rivalry-case
rendered: 2026-11-11T21:38Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Skin.club](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinclub) / [The Rivalry](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/rivalry-case)

# [Skin.club](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinclub) · The Rivalry

A case on Skin.club (Our Special), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/rivalry-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/rivalry-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/rivalry-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/rivalry-case?window=all)

Price · $4.28

Advertised RTP · 92.55% · EV $3.96 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 93.38% · 20.5K openings, odds method

Variance · 4.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 82.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 92.03% ±8.96 2,023 openings

7 days · 94.47% ±3.17 16.8K openings

30 days · 93.38% ±2.88 20.5K openings

since tracking started · 93.38% ±2.88 20.5K openings

82.5% 92.0% 101.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/rivalry-case?window=24h) | 2,023 | 92.03% ±8.96 | −0.0σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/rivalry-case?window=7d) | 16.8K | 94.47% ±3.17 | +1.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/rivalry-case) | 20.5K | 93.38% ±2.88 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/rivalry-case?window=all) | 20.5K | 93.38% ±2.88 | +0.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 20.5K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $122 | 3.1% | 19 | 20.5 | 0.92× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) | 1 in 167 | $54.70 | 8.3% | 117 | 123.3 | 0.95× |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-minimal-wear) | 1 in 167 | $48.91 | 7.4% | 140 | 123.3 | 1.14× |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $38.62 | 9.7% | 229 | 205.5 | 1.11× |
| [M4A4 \| Faded Zebra (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-faded-zebra-minimal-wear) | 1 in 83 | $31.64 | 9.6% | 234 | 246.6 | 0.95× |
| [M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $13.67 | 13.8% | 844 | 821.8 | 1.03× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fizzy POP (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fizzy-pop-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $11.54 | 11.7% | 804 | 821.8 | 0.98× |
| [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $7.51 | 11.4% | 1,262 | 1232.8 | 1.02× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $3.75 | 5.7% | 1,234 | 1232.8 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Magnesium (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-magnesium-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $3.51 | 8.0% | 1,821 | 1849.1 | 0.98× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $1.04 | 2.6% | 2,092 | 2054.6 | 1.02× |
| [M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-minimal-wear) | 14.0% | $0.81 | 2.9% | 2,756 | 2876.4 | 0.96× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-minimal-wear) | 12.5% | $0.80 | 2.5% | 2,642 | 2568.3 | 1.03× |
| [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-field-tested) | 15.0% | $0.50 | 1.9% | 3,061 | 3081.9 | 0.99× |
| [M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-field-tested) | 16.0% | $0.37 | 1.5% | 3,291 | 3287.4 | 1.00× |

Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `skinclub:apiv2/cases/rivalry_case`, 11 Nov, 20:47 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=skinclub&case=rivalry-case)

[M4A1-S | Night Terror (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.27 $0.80 0.19x 2026-11-11 21:37 UTC

[M4A4 | Etch Lord (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-field-tested) Hidden $4.27 $0.37 0.09x 2026-11-11 21:37 UTC

[M4A1-S | Flashback (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.27 $7.49 1.75x 2026-11-11 21:37 UTC

[M4A4 | Etch Lord (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-field-tested) [kriskoaleluq4](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/kriskoaleluq4) $4.27 $0.37 0.09x 2026-11-11 21:37 UTC

[M4A1-S | Night Terror (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.27 $0.80 0.19x 2026-11-11 21:34 UTC

[M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-field-tested) Hidden $4.27 $0.50 0.12x 2026-11-11 21:34 UTC

[M4A4 | Etch Lord (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-field-tested) [snackbox\_-](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/snackbox_-) $4.27 $0.37 0.09x 2026-11-11 21:34 UTC

[M4A4 | Etch Lord (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-field-tested) [cLoNa92](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/cLoNa92) $4.27 $0.37 0.09x 2026-11-11 21:32 UTC

[M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-field-tested) [💜 LOVE SKINS 💜](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/%F0%9F%92%9C%20LOVE%20SKINS%20%F0%9F%92%9C) $4.27 $0.50 0.12x 2026-11-11 21:32 UTC

[M4A1-S | Flashback (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-minimal-wear) [Tiltman](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Tiltman) $4.27 $7.49 1.75x 2026-11-11 21:32 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 20:47 UTC | $4.28 | 92.55% | 15 |
| 11 Nov, 14:43 UTC | $4.27 | 92.40% | 15 |
| 11 Nov, 08:39 UTC | $4.28 | 92.53% | 15 |
| 11 Nov, 02:35 UTC | $4.21 | 92.50% | 15 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $4.15 | 92.60% | 15 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $4.14 | 92.44% | 15 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $4.15 | 92.54% | 15 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $4.17 | 92.39% | 15 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $4.16 | 92.54% | 15 |
| 9 Nov, 14:11 UTC | $4.20 | 92.41% | 15 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $4.21 | 92.53% | 15 |
| 9 Nov, 02:03 UTC | $4.22 | 92.53% | 15 |
| 9 Nov, 01:54 UTC | $4.23 | 92.41% | 15 |
| 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $4.23 | 92.56% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 23:40 UTC | $4.23 | 92.59% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 17:36 UTC | $4.23 | 92.49% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 11:31 UTC | $4.23 | 92.59% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 05:27 UTC | $4.22 | 92.49% | 15 |
| 7 Nov, 23:23 UTC | $4.21 | 92.45% | 15 |
| 7 Nov, 17:19 UTC | $4.19 | 92.59% | 15 |
| 7 Nov, 11:15 UTC | $4.14 | 92.58% | 15 |
| 7 Nov, 05:10 UTC | $4.12 | 92.51% | 15 |
| 6 Nov, 23:06 UTC | $4.13 | 92.51% | 15 |
| 6 Nov, 17:02 UTC | $4.14 | 92.52% | 15 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $4.16 | 92.53% | 15 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $4.17 | 92.55% | 15 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $4.17 | 92.57% | 15 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $4.16 | 92.39% | 15 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $4.15 | 92.61% | 15 |
| 5 Nov, 04:38 UTC | $4.16 | 92.57% | 15 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 1.3% classified 1.0% Rare 5.2% mil spec 13.0% Mythical 33.5% Legendary 6.0% restricted 10.0% violet 30.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.55 on average: an expected loss of $7.45 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt