---
title: "SG 553 case on Skin.club: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "SG 553 ($0.66) on Skin.club, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.83% from 35 items with odds, observed 93.32% over 54.5K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/sg553
rendered: 2026-11-12T03:46Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Skin.club](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinclub) / [SG 553](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/sg553)

# [Skin.club](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinclub) · SG 553

A case on Skin.club (By type), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/sg553?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/sg553?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/sg553) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/sg553?window=all)

Price · $0.66

Advertised RTP · 91.83% · EV $0.61 from 35 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 93.32% · 54.5K openings, odds method

Variance · 4.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 12 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 83.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 95.18% ±5.42 5,751 openings

7 days · 93.28% ±2.06 39.8K openings

30 days · 93.32% ±1.75 54.5K openings

since tracking started · 93.32% ±1.75 54.5K openings

89.0% 95.2% 101.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/sg553?window=24h) | 5,751 | 95.18% ±5.42 | +0.9σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/sg553?window=7d) | 39.8K | 93.28% ±2.06 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/sg553) | 54.5K | 93.32% ±1.75 | +1.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/sg553?window=all) | 54.5K | 93.32% ±1.75 | +1.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 54.6K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [SG 553 \| Colony IV (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $16.70 | 1.4% | 27 | 27.3 | 0.99× |
| [SG 553 \| Integrale (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $16.12 | 2.7% | 59 | 54.6 | 1.08× |
| [SG 553 \| Gator Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-gator-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $14.27 | 2.4% | 52 | 54.6 | 0.95× |
| [SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $13.70 | 2.3% | 57 | 54.6 | 1.04× |
| [SG 553 \| Tornado (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tornado-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $11.11 | 1.8% | 106 | 54.6 | 1.94× |
| [SG 553 \| Traveler (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-traveler-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $9.38 | 4.6% | 190 | 163.7 | 1.16× |
| [SG 553 \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $7.88 | 2.6% | 233 | 109.1 | 2.13× |
| [SG 553 \| Pulse (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-pulse-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $5.87 | 3.9% | 256 | 218.3 | 1.17× |
| [SG 553 \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-candy-apple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 182 | $5.23 | 4.7% | 274 | 300.1 | 0.91× |
| [SG 553 \| Barricade (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-barricade-field-tested) | 1 in 167 | $4.43 | 4.4% | 317 | 327.4 | 0.97× |
| [SG 553 \| Fallout Warning (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-fallout-warning-minimal-wear) | 1 in 167 | $3.17 | 3.1% | 609 | 327.4 | 1.86× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-dragon-tech-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $2.85 | 4.7% | 446 | 545.7 | 0.82× |
| [SG 553 \| Desert Blossom (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-desert-blossom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 83 | $2.67 | 5.3% | 318 | 654.8 | 0.49× |
| [SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tiger-moth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 83 | $2.40 | 4.8% | 996 | 654.8 | 1.52× |
| [SG 553 \| Darkwing (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-darkwing-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $1.52 | 5.0% | 1,077 | 1091.4 | 0.99× |
| [SG 553 \| Triarch (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-triarch-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $1.43 | 4.7% | 1,455 | 1091.4 | 1.33× |
| [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $1.35 | 4.5% | 1,098 | 1091.4 | 1.01× |
| [SG 553 \| Berry Gel Coat (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-berry-gel-coat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $1.34 | 4.4% | 772 | 1091.4 | 0.71× |
| [SG 553 \| Phantom (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-phantom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $1.18 | 3.9% | 1,137 | 1091.4 | 1.04× |
| [SG 553 \| Cyberforce (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyberforce-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $0.53 | 1.7% | 1,857 | 1091.4 | 1.70× |
| [SG 553 \| Aerial (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aerial-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $0.43 | 2.1% | 1,489 | 1637.1 | 0.91× |
| [SG 553 \| Heavy Metal (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-heavy-metal-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.43 | 2.8% | 2,355 | 2182.8 | 1.08× |
| [SG 553 \| Lush Ruins (Minimal Wear) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-lush-ruins-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $0.41 | 2.0% | 2,102 | 1637.1 | 1.28× |
| [SG 553 \| Atlas (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-atlas-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $0.35 | 2.9% | 1,957 | 2728.5 | 0.72× |
| [SG 553 \| Anodized Navy (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-anodized-navy-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.35 | 2.3% | 2,507 | 2182.8 | 1.15× |
| [SG 553 \| Bleached (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-bleached-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $0.34 | 2.8% | 1,870 | 2728.5 | 0.69× |
| [SG 553 \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $0.31 | 2.6% | 2,506 | 2728.5 | 0.92× |
| [SG 553 \| Aloha (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aloha-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.30 | 2.0% | 2,112 | 2182.8 | 0.97× |
| [SG 553 \| Bleached (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-bleached-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $0.26 | 2.1% | 2,595 | 2728.5 | 0.95× |
| [SG 553 \| Danger Close (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-danger-close-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $0.25 | 2.1% | 2,728 | 2728.5 | 1.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Ol' Rusty (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ol-rusty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $0.12 | 1.0% | 4,006 | 2728.5 | 1.47× |
| [SG 553 \| Waves Perforated (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-waves-perforated-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $0.07 | 0.8% | 4,254 | 3819.8 | 1.11× |
| [SG 553 \| Night Camo (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-night-camo-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $0.04 | 0.6% | 4,153 | 4911.2 | 0.85× |
| [SG 553 \| Basket Halftone (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-basket-halftone-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $0.04 | 0.5% | 3,833 | 4256.4 | 0.90× |
| [SG 553 \| Army Sheen (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-army-sheen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10 | $0.03 | 0.5% | 4,766 | 5293.2 | 0.90× |

Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `skinclub:apiv2/cases/sg553`, 12 Nov, 02:51 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=skinclub&case=sg553)

[SG 553 | Anodized Navy (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-anodized-navy-factory-new) [c](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/c) $0.66 $0.35 0.53x 2026-11-12 03:41 UTC

[SG 553 | Aerial (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aerial-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.66 $0.43 0.65x 2026-11-12 03:41 UTC

[SG 553 | Army Sheen (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-army-sheen-minimal-wear) [Isandd](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Isandd) $0.66 $0.03 0.05x 2026-11-12 03:38 UTC

[SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-basket-halftone-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.66 $0.04 0.06x 2026-11-12 03:38 UTC

[SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-basket-halftone-minimal-wear) [Isandd](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Isandd) $0.66 $0.04 0.06x 2026-11-12 03:38 UTC

[SG 553 | Night Camo (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-night-camo-factory-new) Hidden $0.66 $0.04 0.06x 2026-11-12 03:38 UTC

[SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-factory-new) [Harry](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Harry) $0.66 $2.84 4.30x 2026-11-12 03:37 UTC

[SG 553 | Aerial (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aerial-minimal-wear) [skell harbinger of realms](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/skell%20harbinger%20of%20realms) $0.66 $0.43 0.65x 2026-11-12 03:37 UTC

[SG 553 | Waves Perforated (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-waves-perforated-minimal-wear) [Harry](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Harry) $0.66 $0.07 0.11x 2026-11-12 03:37 UTC

[SG 553 | Atlas (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-atlas-minimal-wear) [gorillon★](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/gorillon%E2%98%85) $0.66 $0.36 0.55x 2026-11-12 03:37 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 12 Nov, 02:51 UTC | $0.66 | 91.83% | 35 |
| 11 Nov, 20:47 UTC | $0.65 | 93.15% | 35 |
| 11 Nov, 14:43 UTC | $0.65 | 92.90% | 35 |
| 11 Nov, 08:39 UTC | $0.65 | 93.04% | 35 |
| 11 Nov, 02:35 UTC | $0.65 | 92.50% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $0.65 | 92.64% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $0.65 | 92.78% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $0.66 | 91.85% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $0.65 | 93.02% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $0.65 | 92.70% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 14:11 UTC | $0.65 | 92.02% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $0.71 | 92.32% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 01:54 UTC | $0.72 | 91.87% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 23:40 UTC | $0.72 | 92.21% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 17:36 UTC | $0.71 | 92.44% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 11:31 UTC | $0.71 | 92.68% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 05:27 UTC | $0.71 | 92.46% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 23:23 UTC | $0.71 | 93.05% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 17:19 UTC | $0.72 | 92.64% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 11:15 UTC | $0.72 | 92.61% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 05:10 UTC | $0.71 | 93.12% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 23:06 UTC | $0.71 | 92.37% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 17:02 UTC | $0.70 | 93.16% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $0.70 | 92.33% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $0.70 | 93.14% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $0.71 | 91.87% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $0.70 | 92.90% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $0.71 | 92.65% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 04:38 UTC | $0.70 | 93.12% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 22:34 UTC | $0.71 | 92.23% | 35 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 0.1% Uncommon 8.5% mil spec 1.3% Common 36.4% Industrial 0.3% pink 0.2% restricted 1.6% industrial 0.5% Mythical 7.0% violet 2.0% Rare 32.0% blue 7.0% grey 3.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.83 on average: an expected loss of $8.17 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt