---
title: "Shadow case on Skin.club: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Shadow ($1.40) on Skin.club, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.41% from 41 items with odds, observed 90.24% over 24.9K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/shadow
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:01Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Skin.club](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinclub) / [Shadow](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/shadow)

# [Skin.club](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinclub) · Shadow

A case on Skin.club (Classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/shadow?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/shadow?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/shadow) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/shadow?window=all)

Price · $1.40

Advertised RTP · 92.41% · EV $1.29 from 41 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.24% · 24.9K openings, odds method

Variance · 10.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 16 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 86.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 90.55% ±12.36 2,616 openings

7 days · 89.69% ±4.52 19.4K openings

30 days · 90.24% ±3.98 24.9K openings

since tracking started · 90.24% ±3.98 24.9K openings

77.5% 90.5% 103.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/shadow?window=24h) | 2,616 | 90.55% ±12.4 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/shadow?window=7d) | 19.4K | 89.69% ±4.52 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/shadow) | 24.9K | 90.24% ±3.98 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/shadow?window=all) | 24.9K | 90.24% ±3.98 | −1.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 41 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 24.9K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $134 | 2.1% | 6 | 5.0 | 1.20× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $99.64 | 1.5% | 5 | 5.0 | 1.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $86.42 | 1.3% | 2 | 5.0 | 0.40× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $68.94 | 1.1% | 9 | 5.0 | 1.81× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $67.90 | 1.0% | 11 | 5.0 | 2.21× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $67.11 | 1.0% | 5 | 5.0 | 1.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-stained-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,500 | $66.82 | 2.1% | 4 | 10.0 | 0.40× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) | 1 in 1,667 | $62.57 | 2.9% | 9 | 15.0 | 0.60× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 1,667 | $52.01 | 2.4% | 9 | 15.0 | 0.60× |
| [G3SG1 \| Flux (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-flux-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $29.99 | 2.3% | 32 | 24.9 | 1.28× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 909 | $27.32 | 2.3% | 28 | 27.4 | 1.02× |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-factory-new) | 1 in 909 | $26.07 | 2.2% | 26 | 27.4 | 0.95× |
| [Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $24.10 | 3.7% | 65 | 49.9 | 1.30× |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $14.81 | 2.3% | 55 | 49.9 | 1.10× |
| [G3SG1 \| Flux (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-flux-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $10.58 | 2.5% | 59 | 74.8 | 0.79× |
| [P250 \| Wingshot (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $7.58 | 2.9% | 103 | 124.7 | 0.83× |
| [Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wraiths-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $6.97 | 2.7% | 161 | 124.7 | 1.29× |
| [MP7 \| Special Delivery (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-special-delivery-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $6.43 | 4.0% | 189 | 199.4 | 0.95× |
| [M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-nebula-crusader-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $6.42 | 3.0% | 144 | 149.6 | 0.96× |
| [Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $5.09 | 3.1% | 175 | 199.4 | 0.88× |
| [FAMAS \| Survivor Z (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-survivor-z-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $3.88 | 2.4% | 565 | 199.4 | 2.83× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Dualing Dragons (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dualing-dragons-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $3.53 | 2.2% | 205 | 199.4 | 1.03× |
| [P250 \| Wingshot (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $2.70 | 2.1% | 764 | 249.3 | 3.06× |
| [M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-nebula-crusader-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $2.23 | 1.7% | 229 | 249.3 | 0.92× |
| [MP7 \| Special Delivery (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-special-delivery-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $1.67 | 2.6% | 303 | 498.6 | 0.61× |
| [XM1014 \| Scumbria (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-scumbria-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1.64 | 1.3% | 500 | 249.3 | 2.01× |
| [P250 \| Wingshot (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-field-tested) | 1 in 45 | $1.40 | 2.4% | 285 | 548.5 | 0.52× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Green Marine (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-green-marine-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $1.17 | 2.7% | 549 | 747.9 | 0.73× |
| [M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-nebula-crusader-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $1.14 | 2.6% | 727 | 747.9 | 0.97× |
| [MP7 \| Special Delivery (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-special-delivery-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $1.05 | 4.1% | 824 | 1246.5 | 0.66× |
| [Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Minimal Wear) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wraiths-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $1.05 | 3.4% | 1,175 | 1047.1 | 1.12× |
| [MAG-7 \| Cobalt Core (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-cobalt-core-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $0.85 | 3.3% | 1,107 | 1246.5 | 0.89× |
| [FAMAS \| Survivor Z (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-survivor-z-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $0.74 | 3.4% | 1,490 | 1495.8 | 1.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Dualing Dragons (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dualing-dragons-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $0.67 | 3.1% | 1,487 | 1495.8 | 0.99× |
| [MAG-7 \| Cobalt Core (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-cobalt-core-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $0.61 | 2.8% | 1,454 | 1495.8 | 0.97× |
| [Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wraiths-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $0.42 | 1.9% | 2,693 | 1495.8 | 1.80× |
| [XM1014 \| Scumbria (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-scumbria-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $0.39 | 1.8% | 1,656 | 1495.8 | 1.11× |
| [MAG-7 \| Cobalt Core (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-cobalt-core-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.36 | 2.6% | 1,996 | 2368.4 | 0.84× |
| [FAMAS \| Survivor Z (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-survivor-z-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.36 | 2.2% | 1,898 | 1994.4 | 0.95× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Dualing Dragons (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dualing-dragons-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.33 | 1.8% | 1,888 | 1745.1 | 1.08× |
| [MAC-10 \| Rangeen (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-rangeen-minimal-wear) | 12.0% | $0.32 | 3.0% | 2,038 | 2991.6 | 0.68× |

Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `skinclub:apiv2/cases/shadow`, 11 Nov, 08:39 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-factory-new) [theffburgerboy](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/theffburgerboy) $1.40 $134 95.86x 2026-11-11 09:47 UTC

[AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-factory-new) [Chameleonik෴®](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Chameleonik%E0%B7%B4%C2%AE) $1.40 $134 95.86x 2026-11-11 09:47 UTC

[AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-factory-new) Hidden $1.47 $115 78.46x 2026-11-07 00:16 UTC

[USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-minimal-wear) [Exz0](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Exz0) $1.48 $107 72.01x 2026-11-07 18:00 UTC

[USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-minimal-wear) [Exz0](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Exz0) $1.48 $107 72.01x 2026-11-07 17:59 UTC

[AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-factory-new) [EVO](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/EVO) $1.45 $106 73.28x 2026-11-05 09:16 UTC

[AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-factory-new) [EVO](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/EVO) $1.46 $106 72.77x 2026-11-05 09:15 UTC

[USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.45 $106 73.10x 2026-11-03 16:26 UTC

[USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.50 $104 69.33x 2026-11-08 15:46 UTC

[USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.50 $104 69.33x 2026-11-08 15:41 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=skinclub&case=shadow)

[MP7 | Special Delivery (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-special-delivery-field-tested) Hidden $1.40 $1.07 0.76x 2026-11-11 13:50 UTC

[MAG-7 | Cobalt Core (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-cobalt-core-field-tested) Hidden $1.40 $0.37 0.26x 2026-11-11 13:50 UTC

[Galil AR | Stone Cold (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.40 $5.13 3.66x 2026-11-11 13:50 UTC

[XM1014 | Scumbria (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-scumbria-factory-new) [MesutMessi](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/MesutMessi) $1.40 $1.65 1.18x 2026-11-11 13:50 UTC

[MAC-10 | Rangeen (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-rangeen-minimal-wear) [Todesgurke](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Todesgurke) $1.40 $0.31 0.22x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC

[Galil AR | Stone Cold (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.40 $5.13 3.66x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC

[MAG-7 | Cobalt Core (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-cobalt-core-field-tested) [MobLobster](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/MobLobster) $1.40 $0.37 0.26x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC

[MAC-10 | Rangeen (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-rangeen-minimal-wear) [olzpeE2K](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/olzpeE2K) $1.40 $0.31 0.22x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC

[MAC-10 | Rangeen (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-rangeen-minimal-wear) [Godles](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Godles) $1.40 $0.31 0.22x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC

[MAG-7 | Cobalt Core (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-cobalt-core-field-tested) [LOTUS](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/LOTUS) $1.40 $0.37 0.26x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:39 UTC | $1.40 | 92.41% | 41 |
| 11 Nov, 02:35 UTC | $1.39 | 92.61% | 41 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $1.39 | 92.75% | 41 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $1.39 | 92.43% | 41 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $1.39 | 92.34% | 41 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $1.39 | 92.39% | 41 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $1.39 | 92.27% | 41 |
| 9 Nov, 14:11 UTC | $1.39 | 92.45% | 41 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $1.50 | 92.76% | 41 |
| 9 Nov, 01:54 UTC | $1.51 | 92.23% | 41 |
| 8 Nov, 23:40 UTC | $1.50 | 92.79% | 41 |
| 8 Nov, 17:36 UTC | $1.50 | 92.44% | 41 |
| 8 Nov, 11:31 UTC | $1.50 | 92.27% | 41 |
| 8 Nov, 05:27 UTC | $1.49 | 92.39% | 41 |
| 7 Nov, 23:23 UTC | $1.49 | 92.40% | 41 |
| 7 Nov, 17:19 UTC | $1.48 | 92.80% | 41 |
| 7 Nov, 11:15 UTC | $1.49 | 92.43% | 41 |
| 7 Nov, 05:10 UTC | $1.48 | 92.40% | 41 |
| 6 Nov, 23:06 UTC | $1.47 | 92.62% | 41 |
| 6 Nov, 17:02 UTC | $1.47 | 92.31% | 41 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $1.47 | 92.70% | 41 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $1.47 | 92.47% | 41 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $1.47 | 92.38% | 41 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $1.46 | 92.71% | 41 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $1.46 | 92.29% | 41 |
| 5 Nov, 04:38 UTC | $1.45 | 92.31% | 41 |
| 4 Nov, 22:34 UTC | $1.44 | 92.73% | 41 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $1.44 | 92.18% | 41 |
| 4 Nov, 14:12 UTC | $1.44 | 92.36% | 41 |
| 4 Nov, 08:08 UTC | $1.44 | 92.67% | 41 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 4.2% classified 0.8% covert 0.2% Immortal 0.1% restricted 5.6% violet 3.5% blue 0.5% Mythical 8.0% mil spec 32.8% #4b69ff 6.8% Rare 16.0% Mil Spec Grade 9.5% milspec 12.0% best hit $134 (95.86x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.41 on average: an expected loss of $7.59 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt