---
title: "StatTrak™ case on Skin.club: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "StatTrak™ ($10.75) on Skin.club, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.52% from 36 items with odds, observed 85.33% over 8,566 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/stattrak
rendered: 2026-11-12T05:25Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Skin.club](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinclub) / [StatTrak™](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/stattrak)

# [Skin.club](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinclub) · StatTrak™

A case on Skin.club (Our Special), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/stattrak?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/stattrak?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/stattrak) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/stattrak?window=all)

Price · $10.75

Advertised RTP · 92.52% · EV $9.95 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.33% · 8,566 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 19.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 74.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 84.81% ±15.16 548 openings

7 days · 85.60% ±4.32 6,816 openings

30 days · 85.33% ±3.85 8,566 openings

since tracking started · 85.33% ±3.85 8,566 openings

69.0% 84.7% 100.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 92.45% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (81.48% – 89.18%, 8,566 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/stattrak?window=24h) | 548 | 84.81% ±15.2 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/stattrak?window=7d) | 6,816 | 85.60% ±4.32 | −3.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/stattrak) | 8,566 | 85.33% ±3.85 | −3.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/stattrak?window=all) | 8,566 | 85.33% ±3.85 | −3.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,578 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $497 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $474 | 1.0% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $357 | 0.7% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.17× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-containment-breach-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $321 | 0.6% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.58× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $306 | 0.9% | 1 | 2.6 | 0.39× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $239 | 1.0% | 1 | 3.4 | 0.29× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 2,500 | $238 | 1.0% | 1 | 3.4 | 0.29× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $232 | 0.9% | 3 | 3.4 | 0.87× |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $230 | 1.2% | 0 | 4.3 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-player-two-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $216 | 1.1% | 3 | 4.3 | 0.70× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-boom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $215 | 1.1% | 2 | 4.3 | 0.47× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-hypnotic-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $171 | 0.9% | 5 | 4.3 | 1.17× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-frontside-misty-factory-new) | 1 in 1,667 | $160 | 1.0% | 3 | 5.1 | 0.58× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,667 | $139 | 0.8% | 3 | 5.1 | 0.58× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-point-disarray-factory-new) | 1 in 1,667 | $87.63 | 0.5% | 4 | 5.1 | 0.78× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 833 | $74.44 | 0.9% | 12 | 10.3 | 1.17× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-well-worn) | 1 in 625 | $66.90 | 1.1% | 10 | 13.7 | 0.73× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-frontside-misty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $59.65 | 1.2% | 18 | 17.2 | 1.05× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) | 1 in 455 | $58.28 | 1.3% | 26 | 18.9 | 1.38× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-player-two-battle-scarred) | 1 in 250 | $58.09 | 2.3% | 15 | 34.3 | 0.44× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 125 | $41.79 | 3.4% | 66 | 68.6 | 0.96× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-cortex-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $38.03 | 3.1% | 68 | 68.6 | 0.99× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-blue-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $34.47 | 2.8% | 64 | 68.6 | 0.93× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 1 in 125 | $29.59 | 2.4% | 60 | 68.6 | 0.87× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 67 | $21.15 | 3.2% | 121 | 128.7 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cyrex (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 63 | $16.39 | 2.6% | 165 | 137.2 | 1.20× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Weasel (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-weasel-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $13.36 | 2.7% | 255 | 171.6 | 1.49× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $13.29 | 4.0% | 522 | 257.3 | 2.03× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Retrobution (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-retrobution-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $12.32 | 7.4% | 365 | 514.7 | 0.71× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Guardian (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-guardian-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $11.92 | 8.4% | 386 | 600.5 | 0.64× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-cortex-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $8.88 | 7.1% | 796 | 686.2 | 1.16× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Naga (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-naga-minimal-wear) | 12.0% | $7.84 | 9.5% | 972 | 1029.4 | 0.94× |
| [USP-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 12.0% | $5.89 | 7.1% | 1,138 | 1029.4 | 1.11× |
| [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-tacticat-factory-new) | 14.0% | $4.40 | 6.2% | 1,099 | 1200.9 | 0.92× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-moonrise-minimal-wear) | 14.0% | $3.66 | 5.2% | 1,203 | 1200.9 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Weasel (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-weasel-minimal-wear) | 14.0% | $3.64 | 5.1% | 1,188 | 1200.9 | 0.99× |

Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `skinclub:apiv2/cases/stattrak`, 12 Nov, 02:51 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Talon Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [YT : Lovebup v2](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/YT%20%3A%20Lovebup%20v2) $11.02 $514 46.65x 2026-11-08 12:12 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [SoRRReRiiNo](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/SoRRReRiiNo) $10.74 $503 46.81x 2026-11-10 09:26 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=skinclub&case=stattrak)

[StatTrak™ USP-S | Cortex (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-cortex-factory-new) Hidden $10.73 $37.97 3.54x 2026-11-12 05:14 UTC

[StatTrak™ USP-S | Guardian (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-guardian-factory-new) [into cp, i suppose...](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/into%20cp%2C%20%20i%20suppose...) $10.73 $11.90 1.11x 2026-11-12 05:14 UTC

[StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Tacticat (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-tacticat-factory-new) Hidden $10.73 $4.49 0.42x 2026-11-12 05:14 UTC

[StatTrak™ USP-S | Cortex (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-cortex-field-tested) Hidden $10.73 $8.93 0.83x 2026-11-12 05:14 UTC

[StatTrak™ P250 | Asiimov (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-asiimov-well-worn) Hidden $10.73 $13.29 1.24x 2026-11-12 05:11 UTC

[StatTrak™ USP-S | Cyrex (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-cyrex-factory-new) [TOM CRUISE](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/TOM%20CRUISE) $10.73 $16.27 1.52x 2026-11-12 05:11 UTC

[StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-moonrise-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.73 $3.42 0.32x 2026-11-12 05:11 UTC

[StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-moonrise-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.73 $3.42 0.32x 2026-11-12 05:11 UTC

[StatTrak™ USP-S | Guardian (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-guardian-factory-new) Hidden $10.73 $11.90 1.11x 2026-11-12 04:54 UTC

[StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-moonrise-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.73 $3.42 0.32x 2026-11-12 04:54 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 12 Nov, 02:51 UTC | $10.75 | 92.52% | 36 |
| 11 Nov, 20:47 UTC | $10.74 | 92.50% | 36 |
| 11 Nov, 14:43 UTC | $10.71 | 92.52% | 36 |
| 11 Nov, 08:39 UTC | $10.68 | 92.49% | 36 |
| 11 Nov, 02:35 UTC | $10.70 | 92.49% | 36 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $10.70 | 92.48% | 36 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $10.72 | 92.53% | 36 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $10.74 | 92.54% | 36 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $10.73 | 92.46% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $10.72 | 92.50% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 14:11 UTC | $10.77 | 92.48% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $10.94 | 92.51% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 01:54 UTC | $11.02 | 92.50% | 36 |
| 8 Nov, 23:40 UTC | $11.01 | 92.51% | 36 |
| 8 Nov, 17:36 UTC | $11.01 | 92.52% | 36 |
| 8 Nov, 11:31 UTC | $10.99 | 92.52% | 36 |
| 8 Nov, 05:27 UTC | $11.06 | 92.49% | 36 |
| 7 Nov, 23:23 UTC | $11.02 | 92.46% | 36 |
| 7 Nov, 17:19 UTC | $10.98 | 92.53% | 36 |
| 7 Nov, 11:15 UTC | $11.04 | 92.48% | 36 |
| 7 Nov, 05:10 UTC | $11.14 | 92.51% | 36 |
| 6 Nov, 23:06 UTC | $11.11 | 92.50% | 36 |
| 6 Nov, 17:02 UTC | $11.16 | 92.52% | 36 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $11.16 | 92.50% | 36 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $11.10 | 92.47% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $11.02 | 92.49% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $11.09 | 92.54% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $11.01 | 92.46% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 04:38 UTC | $11.02 | 92.51% | 36 |
| 4 Nov, 22:34 UTC | $11.05 | 92.54% | 36 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed epic 0.0% classified 1.1% covert 0.9% Ancient 0.2% Covert 0.1% Legendary 12.8% Classified 0.1% restricted 48.4% Mythical 36.5% best hit $514 (46.65x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.52 on average: an expected loss of $7.48 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt