---
title: "Triple Fade case on Skin.club: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Triple Fade ($2.46) on Skin.club, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.66% from 8 items with odds, observed 89.70% over 34.5K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/triple-fade
rendered: 2026-11-12T13:11Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Skin.club](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinclub) / [Triple Fade](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/triple-fade)

# [Skin.club](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinclub) · Triple Fade

A case on Skin.club (Complete Gear), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/triple-fade?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/triple-fade?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/triple-fade) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/triple-fade?window=all)

Price · $2.46

Advertised RTP · 92.66% · EV $2.28 from 8 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.70% · 34.5K openings, odds method

Variance · 26.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 15.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 77.93% ±21.82 2,174 openings

7 days · 86.43% ±6.81 24.9K openings

30 days · 89.70% ±5.84 34.5K openings

since tracking started · 89.70% ±5.84 34.5K openings

55.5% 78.0% 100.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/triple-fade?window=24h) | 2,174 | 77.93% ±21.8 | −1.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/triple-fade?window=7d) | 24.9K | 86.43% ±6.81 | −1.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/triple-fade) | 34.5K | 89.70% ±5.84 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/triple-fade?window=all) | 34.5K | 89.70% ±5.84 | −0.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 34.5K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $388 | 1.7% | 11 | 3.4 | 3.19× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $277 | 3.6% | 10 | 10.3 | 0.97× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $217 | 2.9% | 9 | 10.3 | 0.87× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $171 | 2.2% | 8 | 10.3 | 0.77× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $158 | 20.8% | 85 | 103.5 | 0.82× |
| [Sir Bloody Miami Darryl \| The Professionals agent · master](https://gambatracker.com/items/sir-bloody-miami-darryl-the-professionals) | 1 in 167 | $68.57 | 18.0% | 188 | 207.0 | 0.91× |
| [Charm \| Hungry Eyes charm · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-hungry-eyes) | 14.0% | $3.33 | 20.5% | 4,858 | 4829.4 | 1.01× |
| [Sticker \| Hello MP7 sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hello-mp7) | 85.0% | $0.81 | 30.2% | 29,327 | 29321.6 | 1.00× |

Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `skinclub:apiv2/cases/triple-fade`, 12 Nov, 08:56 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Flip Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.35 $416 177.1x 2026-11-03 03:08 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.35 $416 177.1x 2026-11-03 03:04 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-fade-minimal-wear) [Runic Tracker](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Runic%20Tracker) $2.36 $402 170.3x 2026-11-09 22:04 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.34 $402 171.8x 2026-11-09 22:03 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.34 $402 171.8x 2026-11-09 22:03 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.36 $401 170.1x 2026-11-10 01:46 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-fade-minimal-wear) [rBka](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/rBka) $2.36 $397 168.2x 2026-11-08 13:01 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-fade-minimal-wear) [1ØBalleLAAa](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/1%C3%98BalleLAAa) $2.33 $391 167.9x 2026-11-07 22:33 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.34 $391 167.2x 2026-11-07 22:32 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.34 $391 167.1x 2026-11-07 10:42 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=skinclub&case=triple-fade)

[Sticker | Hello MP7 sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hello-mp7) Hidden $2.39 $0.81 0.34x 2026-11-12 12:39 UTC

[Sticker | Hello MP7 sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hello-mp7) Hidden $2.39 $0.81 0.34x 2026-11-12 12:39 UTC

[Sticker | Hello MP7 sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hello-mp7) [Chesus Cumlord](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Chesus%20Cumlord) $2.39 $0.81 0.34x 2026-11-12 12:39 UTC

[Sticker | Hello MP7 sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hello-mp7) Hidden $2.39 $0.81 0.34x 2026-11-12 12:39 UTC

[Sticker | Hello MP7 sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hello-mp7) Hidden $2.39 $0.81 0.34x 2026-11-12 12:39 UTC

[Sticker | Hello MP7 sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hello-mp7) [Chesus Cumlord](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Chesus%20Cumlord) $2.39 $0.81 0.34x 2026-11-12 12:39 UTC

[Sticker | Hello MP7 sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hello-mp7) Hidden $2.39 $0.81 0.34x 2026-11-12 12:39 UTC

[Sticker | Hello MP7 sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hello-mp7) Hidden $2.39 $0.81 0.34x 2026-11-12 12:39 UTC

[Charm | Hungry Eyes charm · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-hungry-eyes) [Chesus Cumlord](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Chesus%20Cumlord) $2.39 $2.88 1.21x 2026-11-12 12:39 UTC

[Sticker | Hello MP7 sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hello-mp7) Hidden $2.39 $0.81 0.34x 2026-11-12 12:35 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 12 Nov, 08:56 UTC | $2.46 | 92.66% | 8 |
| 12 Nov, 02:51 UTC | $2.49 | 92.67% | 8 |
| 11 Nov, 20:47 UTC | $2.47 | 92.37% | 8 |
| 11 Nov, 14:43 UTC | $2.43 | 92.57% | 8 |
| 11 Nov, 08:39 UTC | $2.44 | 92.51% | 8 |
| 11 Nov, 02:35 UTC | $2.45 | 92.33% | 8 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $2.45 | 92.66% | 8 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $2.48 | 92.46% | 8 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $2.47 | 92.37% | 8 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $2.36 | 92.57% | 8 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $2.34 | 92.56% | 8 |
| 9 Nov, 14:11 UTC | $2.34 | 92.66% | 8 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $2.35 | 92.48% | 8 |
| 9 Nov, 01:54 UTC | $2.36 | 92.41% | 8 |
| 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $2.36 | 92.40% | 8 |
| 8 Nov, 23:40 UTC | $2.36 | 92.58% | 8 |
| 8 Nov, 17:36 UTC | $2.35 | 92.57% | 8 |
| 8 Nov, 11:31 UTC | $2.37 | 92.54% | 8 |
| 8 Nov, 05:27 UTC | $2.36 | 92.41% | 8 |
| 7 Nov, 23:23 UTC | $2.34 | 92.62% | 8 |
| 7 Nov, 17:19 UTC | $2.33 | 92.39% | 8 |
| 7 Nov, 11:15 UTC | $2.33 | 92.57% | 8 |
| 7 Nov, 05:10 UTC | $2.33 | 92.53% | 8 |
| 6 Nov, 23:06 UTC | $2.34 | 92.58% | 8 |
| 6 Nov, 17:02 UTC | $2.34 | 92.31% | 8 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $2.34 | 92.58% | 8 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $2.35 | 92.39% | 8 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $2.35 | 92.34% | 8 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $2.35 | 92.47% | 8 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $2.34 | 92.68% | 8 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% epic 0.4% master 0.6% Legendary 14.0% Rare 85.0% best hit $416 (177.1x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.66 on average: an expected loss of $7.34 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt