---
title: "USP-S case on Skin.club: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "USP-S ($1.12) on Skin.club, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.73% from 40 items with odds, observed 91.54% over 119K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/usp
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:57Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Skin.club](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinclub) / [USP-S](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/usp)

# [Skin.club](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinclub) · USP-S

A case on Skin.club (By type), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/usp?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/usp?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/usp) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/usp?window=all)

Price · $1.12

Advertised RTP · 92.73% · EV $1.04 from 40 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 91.54% · 119K openings, odds method

Variance · 13.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 14.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 85.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 88.48% ±5.42 17K openings

7 days · 90.44% ±2.40 96.7K openings

30 days · 91.54% ±2.16 119K openings

since tracking started · 91.54% ±2.16 119K openings

82.5% 88.5% 94.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/usp?window=24h) | 17K | 88.48% ±5.42 | −1.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/usp?window=7d) | 96.7K | 90.44% ±2.40 | −1.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/usp) | 119K | 91.54% ±2.16 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/usp?window=all) | 119K | 91.54% ±2.16 | −1.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 40 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 120K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [USP-S \| Target Acquired (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $244 | 2.3% | 9 | 12.0 | 0.75× |
| [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $105 | 1.0% | 88 | 12.0 | 7.35× |
| [USP-S \| Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-whiteout-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $70.43 | 0.7% | 8 | 12.0 | 0.67× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $67.55 | 1.3% | 42 | 23.9 | 1.75× |
| [USP-S \| Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-dark-water-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $59.86 | 1.2% | 27 | 23.9 | 1.13× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $54.22 | 1.6% | 29 | 35.9 | 0.81× |
| [USP-S \| Serum (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-serum-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $51.16 | 1.5% | 60 | 35.9 | 1.67× |
| [USP-S \| Road Rash (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-road-rash-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $51.10 | 1.5% | 65 | 35.9 | 1.81× |
| [USP-S \| Orion (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orion-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $48.06 | 1.4% | 36 | 35.9 | 1.00× |
| [USP-S \| Business Class (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-business-class-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $43.84 | 1.3% | 42 | 35.9 | 1.17× |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $34.31 | 1.0% | 11 | 35.9 | 0.31× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $29.97 | 0.9% | 5 | 35.9 | 0.14× |
| [USP-S \| Ancient Visions (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ancient-visions-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,667 | $29.62 | 1.7% | 43 | 71.8 | 0.60× |
| [USP-S \| Caiman (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-caiman-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,667 | $26.88 | 1.6% | 40 | 71.8 | 0.56× |
| [USP-S \| Orange Anolis (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orange-anolis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $25.01 | 2.4% | 46 | 119.7 | 0.38× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Blue (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $21.41 | 2.1% | 87 | 119.7 | 0.73× |
| [USP-S \| Overgrowth (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $18.28 | 1.8% | 118 | 119.7 | 0.99× |
| [USP-S \| Stainless (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-stainless-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $12.77 | 1.2% | 195 | 119.7 | 1.63× |
| [USP-S \| Pathfinder (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pathfinder-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $12.61 | 1.2% | 139 | 119.7 | 1.16× |
| [USP-S \| Para Green (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-para-green-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $8.70 | 0.8% | 113 | 119.7 | 0.94× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $7.08 | 0.7% | 30 | 119.7 | 0.25× |
| [USP-S \| Purple DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-purple-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $6.01 | 0.6% | 364 | 119.7 | 3.04× |
| [USP-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 625 | $5.92 | 0.9% | 529 | 191.5 | 2.76× |
| [USP-S \| Guardian (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-guardian-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $5.89 | 1.1% | 206 | 239.3 | 0.86× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $5.76 | 1.1% | 394 | 239.3 | 1.65× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $5.02 | 1.5% | 198 | 359.0 | 0.55× |
| [USP-S \| Blueprint (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $4.48 | 1.3% | 366 | 359.0 | 1.02× |
| [USP-S \| Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blood-tiger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 313 | $2.86 | 0.9% | 1,913 | 382.9 | 5.00× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $2.20 | 2.1% | 1,074 | 1196.7 | 0.90× |
| [USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-lead-conduit-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $2.16 | 4.2% | 7,102 | 2393.4 | 2.97× |
| [USP-S \| Torque (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $1.56 | 6.0% | 4,797 | 4786.7 | 1.00× |
| [USP-S \| Check Engine (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $1.30 | 6.3% | 9,944 | 5983.4 | 1.66× |
| [USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-tropical-breeze-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $1.09 | 6.3% | 2,169 | 7180.1 | 0.30× |
| [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.95 | 7.3% | 7,820 | 9573.4 | 0.82× |
| [USP-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $0.71 | 6.2% | 10,627 | 10770.1 | 0.99× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-field-tested) | 1 in 10 | $0.62 | 5.8% | 15,364 | 11607.8 | 1.32× |
| [USP-S \| Desert Tactical (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-desert-tactical-minimal-wear) | 12.0% | $0.52 | 6.0% | 14,567 | 14360.2 | 1.01× |
| [USP-S \| Alpine Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-alpine-camo-minimal-wear) | 12.0% | $0.45 | 5.2% | 8,174 | 14360.2 | 0.57× |
| [USP-S \| 27 (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-27-minimal-wear) | 14.0% | $0.40 | 5.4% | 14,889 | 16753.5 | 0.89× |
| [USP-S \| PC-GRN (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-minimal-wear) | 14.6% | $0.21 | 3.0% | 17,938 | 17495.5 | 1.03× |

Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `skinclub:apiv2/cases/usp`, 11 Nov, 14:43 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[USP-S | Target Acquired (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-minimal-wear) [mchedla.313](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/mchedla.313) $1.37 $249 181.9x 2026-11-03 12:24 UTC

[USP-S | Target Acquired (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-minimal-wear) [mchedla.313](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/mchedla.313) $1.37 $249 181.9x 2026-11-03 12:24 UTC

[USP-S | Target Acquired (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.38 $248 179.8x 2026-11-09 02:50 UTC

[USP-S | Target Acquired (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.12 $248 221.4x 2026-11-10 00:47 UTC

[USP-S | Target Acquired (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-minimal-wear) [DJ\_Scorpyonᴴᴰ](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/DJ_Scorpyon%E1%B4%B4%E1%B4%B0) $1.11 $248 223.1x 2026-11-10 08:41 UTC

[USP-S | Target Acquired (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-minimal-wear) [JASKO-](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/JASKO-) $1.12 $247 220.9x 2026-11-10 22:46 UTC

[USP-S | Target Acquired (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-minimal-wear) [Bubz](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Bubz) $1.37 $247 179.9x 2026-11-05 22:27 UTC

[USP-S | Target Acquired (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-minimal-wear) [Bubz](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Bubz) $1.38 $247 178.6x 2026-11-05 22:27 UTC

[USP-S | Target Acquired (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.37 $246 179.7x 2026-11-04 17:24 UTC

[USP-S | Target Acquired (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-minimal-wear) [bxgrapeak](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/bxgrapeak) $1.37 $246 179.5x 2026-11-06 00:07 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=skinclub&case=usp)

[USP-S | Overgrowth (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-field-tested) Hidden $1.13 $18.07 15.99x 2026-11-11 19:56 UTC

[USP-S | Flashback (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.13 $0.71 0.63x 2026-11-11 19:56 UTC

[USP-S | Alpine Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-alpine-camo-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.13 $0.45 0.40x 2026-11-11 19:56 UTC

[USP-S | Torque (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-factory-new) [piyan party](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/piyan%20party) $1.13 $1.74 1.54x 2026-11-11 19:56 UTC

[USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-factory-new) [Paulie "walnuts" Gualtieri](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Paulie%20%22walnuts%22%20Gualtieri) $1.12 $5.07 4.53x 2026-11-11 19:56 UTC

[USP-S | Flashback (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.13 $0.71 0.63x 2026-11-11 19:56 UTC

[USP-S | Alpine Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-alpine-camo-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.13 $0.45 0.40x 2026-11-11 19:56 UTC

[USP-S | PC-GRN (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.13 $0.21 0.19x 2026-11-11 19:56 UTC

[USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-field-tested) [Cltz](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Cltz) $1.13 $0.62 0.55x 2026-11-11 19:56 UTC

[USP-S | Flashback (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.13 $0.71 0.63x 2026-11-11 19:55 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:43 UTC | $1.12 | 92.73% | 40 |
| 11 Nov, 08:39 UTC | $1.12 | 92.33% | 40 |
| 11 Nov, 02:35 UTC | $1.12 | 92.10% | 40 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $1.12 | 92.15% | 40 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $1.11 | 92.82% | 40 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $1.11 | 92.91% | 40 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $1.12 | 92.11% | 40 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $1.38 | 92.73% | 37 |
| 9 Nov, 14:11 UTC | $1.39 | 92.42% | 37 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $1.39 | 92.26% | 37 |
| 9 Nov, 02:03 UTC | $1.38 | 92.47% | 37 |
| 9 Nov, 01:54 UTC | $1.38 | 92.35% | 37 |
| 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $1.38 | 92.20% | 37 |
| 8 Nov, 23:40 UTC | $1.38 | 92.46% | 37 |
| 8 Nov, 17:36 UTC | $1.38 | 92.40% | 37 |
| 8 Nov, 11:31 UTC | $1.38 | 92.40% | 37 |
| 8 Nov, 05:27 UTC | $1.37 | 92.74% | 37 |
| 7 Nov, 23:23 UTC | $1.38 | 92.32% | 37 |
| 7 Nov, 17:19 UTC | $1.37 | 92.82% | 37 |
| 7 Nov, 11:15 UTC | $1.37 | 92.53% | 37 |
| 7 Nov, 05:10 UTC | $1.37 | 92.59% | 37 |
| 6 Nov, 23:06 UTC | $1.37 | 92.63% | 37 |
| 6 Nov, 17:02 UTC | $1.37 | 92.37% | 37 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $1.37 | 92.60% | 37 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $1.37 | 92.30% | 37 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $1.37 | 92.77% | 37 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $1.37 | 92.67% | 37 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $1.37 | 92.72% | 37 |
| 5 Nov, 04:38 UTC | $1.37 | 92.55% | 37 |
| 4 Nov, 22:34 UTC | $1.37 | 92.77% | 37 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 0.3% covert 0.0% restricted 9.3% red 0.1% Rare 22.0% #8847ff 0.1% Mythical 11.3% industrial 0.3% mil spec 12.5% pink 0.2% #4b69ff 6.0% Uncommon 12.0% blue 26.0% best hit $249 (181.9x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.73 on average: an expected loss of $7.27 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt