---
title: "M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New): case drops & odds"
description: "M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) across CS2 case sites: 2,825 drops on 13 sites in 7 days, worth $21.02 to $441. Independent and free, no sign-up."
url: https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new
rendered: 2026-11-12T03:02Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Items](https://gambatracker.com/items) / [M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New)](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new)

# M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New)

weapon, classified · M4A1-S · Nightmare · Factory New. Market name: M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New). Every value is the price the site that dropped it lists it at; there is no external reference price.

Drops, 7d · 2,825 · on 13 sites

Average value · $73.20 · site prices, drop-weighted

Lowest · $21.02

Highest · $441

In cases · 50 · with published odds

Price spread · 1433% · highest vs lowest site average

## Per site · drops and the value each site put on it

| Site | Drops | Average | Lowest | Highest | Last seen |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [CSGOEmpire](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoempire) | 679 | $37.11 | $36.71 | $37.18 | 3h |
| [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) | 649 | $26.67 | $26.67 | $26.67 | 3h |
| [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) | 599 | $181 | $178 | $186 | 3h |
| [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) | 568 | $44.74 | $21.02 | $108 | 3h |
| [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) | 220 | $40.66 | $39.00 | $41.15 | 3h |
| [Skin.club](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinclub) | 57 | $201 | $186 | $214 | 1d |
| [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) | 29 | $174 | $103 | $250 | 1d |
| [SkinRave](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinrave) | 10 | $62.24 | $62.24 | $62.24 | 3d |
| [CSGOFAST](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgofast) | 8 | $409 | $313 | $441 | 1d |
| [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) | 2 | $30.00 | $30.00 | $30.00 | 1d |
| [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) | 2 | $203 | $203 | $203 | 8d |
| [DatDrop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/datdrop) | 1 | $372 | $372 | $372 | 1d |
| [Hellcase](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hellcase) | 1 | $214 | $214 | $214 | 7d |

A site's value is what it credits the player with, in its own coin converted at the published rate. Multi-wear drops on Casehug use the odds-weighted mean of the wears' prices.

## Cases that can drop it · with the odds each site publishes

| Case | Site | Case price | Odds | Value there | Payout |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Emperor](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/emperor) | [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) | $17.77 | 33.0% | $26.67 | 1.5× |
| [Demonic](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/demonic) | [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) | $123 | 20.0% | $21.02 | 0.2× |
| [Bing Chilling](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bing-chilling) | [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) | $205 | 19.7% | $186 | 0.9× |
| [Trick or Treat Baller](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/trick-or-treat-baller) | [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) | $177 | 15.5% | $186 | 1.1× |
| [Smackdown](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/smackdown) | [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) | $178 | 15.0% | $26.67 | 0.1× |
| [Elixir](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/elixir) | [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) | $1,689 | 12.0% | $23.97 | 0.0× |
| [Hit a Lick](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hit-a-lick) | [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) | $27.64 | 10.0% | $26.67 | 1.0× |
| [Daredevil Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/daredevil-case) | [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) | $72.77 | 10.0% | $186 | 2.6× |
| [Stealth Ops](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/stealth-ops) | [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) | $56.23 | 10.0% | $22.89 | 0.4× |
| [Nemesis](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/nemesis) | [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) | $904 | 10.0% | $28.43 | 0.0× |
| [Thunder And Lightning](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/thunder-and-lightning) | [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) | $166 | 10.0% | $24.95 | 0.2× |
| [Elysium](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/elysium) | [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) | $6,982 | 1 in 11 | $24.81 | 0.0× |
| [Storm Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/storm-case) | [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) | $182 | 1 in 13 | $186 | 1.0× |
| [Skeletal](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/skeletal) | [CSGOEmpire](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoempire) | $30.01 | 1 in 14 | $37.18 | 1.2× |
| [Blue Skies](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/blue-skies) | [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) | $71.51 | 1 in 14 | $186 | 2.6× |
| [Bandaid](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/bandaid) | [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) | $59.02 | 1 in 16 | $186 | 3.2× |
| [Seasonal Supply](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/seasonal-supply) | [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) | $15.44 | 1 in 17 | $26.67 | 1.7× |
| [Risk Runner](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/risk-runner) | [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) | $6.84 | 1 in 20 | $26.67 | 3.9× |
| [Supreme Rifles](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/supreme-rifles) | [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) | $73.75 | 1 in 20 | $186 | 2.5× |
| [Seven Seas](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/seven-seas) | [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) | $49.75 | 1 in 20 | $186 | 3.7× |
| [Trick or Treat](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/trick-or-treat) | [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) | $14.55 | 1 in 20 | $108 | 7.4× |
| [Rainsonic](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/423) | [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) | $321 | 1 in 20 | $250 | 0.8× |
| [Nightshade](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/314) | [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) | $5.50 | 1 in 20 | $30.00 | 5.5× |
| [Telescope](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/telescope) | [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) | $12.28 | 1 in 25 | $26.67 | 2.2× |
| [mystery box](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/mystery-box) | [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) | $6,208 | 1 in 25 | $26.67 | 0.0× |
| [Singularity](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/singularity) | [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) | $128 | 1 in 31 | $203 | 1.6× |
| [Cursed](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/cursed) | [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) | $30.02 | 1 in 33 | $186 | 6.2× |
| [Sneaky Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sneaky-case) | [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) | $20.54 | 1 in 50 | $186 | 9.1× |
| [Hunted](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/hunted) | [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) | $2.49 | 1 in 63 | $26.67 | 10.7× |
| [m1zry v2 Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/486) | [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) | $45.00 | 1 in 67 | $103 | 2.3× |
| [Horizon Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/horizon-case) | [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) | $2.31 | 1 in 94 | $25.68 | 11.1× |
| [Blood Moon](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/blood-moon) | [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) | $26.94 | 1 in 125 | $186 | 6.9× |
| [Riddle](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/riddle) | [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) | $21.65 | 1 in 143 | $186 | 8.6× |
| [CT Upgrade](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/ct-upgrade) | [CSGOEmpire](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoempire) | $4.75 | 1 in 167 | $36.71 | 7.7× |
| [Ouija](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ouija) | [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) | $15.43 | 1 in 200 | $186 | 12.1× |
| [Half Life 3](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/500) | [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) | $10.00 | 1 in 333 | $120 | 12.0× |
| [Exclusive "Case X" Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/432) | [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) | $8.52 | 1 in 500 | $120 | 14.1× |
| [Planting](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/planting) | [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) | $1.25 | 1 in 1,000 | $26.67 | 21.4× |
| [MECHANIC](https://gambatracker.com/cases/dropskin/mechanic) | [DROP.SKIN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/dropskin) | $10.00 | 1 in 1,012 | $214 | 21.4× |
| [Fishy](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/fishy) | [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) | $0.44 | 1 in 1,667 | $26.67 | 60.6× |
| [Nightmare](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/nightmare-case) | [Skin.club](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinclub) | $4.29 | 1 in 2,000 | $204 | 47.6× |
| [Feather](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/feather) | [Hellcase](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hellcase) | $25.00 | 1 in 2,857 | $224 | 9.0× |
| [Horizon](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/horizon) | [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) | $1.87 | 1 in 3,333 | $186 | 99.6× |
| [Quarter Billion](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/quarter-billion) | [Hellcase](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hellcase) | $14.49 | 1 in 4,167 | $288 | 19.9× |
| [Blues](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/blues) | [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) | $0.92 | 1 in 5,000 | $186 | 201.5× |
| [M4A1-S](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/m4a1s) | [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) | $9.65 | 1 in 7,692 | $219 | 22.6× |
| [Horizon Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/horizoncase) | [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) | $6.01 | 1 in 9,091 | $219 | 36.4× |
| [Fragadelphia](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/489) | [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) | $1.00 | 1 in 10,000 | $107 | 107.2× |
| [Hyper Beast](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/hyper-beast) | [Hellcase](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hellcase) | $8.00 | 1 in 11,111 | $224 | 28.0× |
| [M4 Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/m4) | [Hellcase](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hellcase) | $5.25 | 1 in 20,000 | $224 | 42.7× |

## Biggest drops · of this item, by value

[CSGOFAST](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgofast) [M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) [The Horizon Collection $2.00](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgofast/166) battle [K1R1JIJI](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgofast/K1R1JIJI) $2.00 $441 220.4x 2026-11-11 23:13 UTC

[CSGOFAST](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgofast) [M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) [The Horizon Collection $2.00](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgofast/166) battle [PHARAOH](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgofast/PHARAOH) $2.00 $441 220.4x 2026-11-10 01:01 UTC

[CSGOFAST](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgofast) [M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) [The Horizon Collection $2.00](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgofast/166) battle [мисс бич](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgofast/%D0%BC%D0%B8%D1%81%D1%81%20%D0%B1%D0%B8%D1%87) $2.00 $441 220.4x 2026-11-09 11:34 UTC

[CSGOFAST](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgofast) [M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) [The Horizon Collection $2.00](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgofast/166) battle [aytekin diner](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgofast/aytekin%20diner) $2.00 $441 220.4x 2026-11-08 22:10 UTC

[CSGOFAST](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgofast) [M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) [The Horizon Collection $2.00](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgofast/166) battle [Бабло рубиться](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgofast/%D0%91%D0%B0%D0%B1%D0%BB%D0%BE%20%D1%80%D1%83%D0%B1%D0%B8%D1%82%D1%8C%D1%81%D1%8F) $2.00 $441 220.4x 2026-11-08 06:28 UTC

[CSGOFAST](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgofast) [M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) [The Horizon Collection $2.00](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgofast/166) battle [DerSüßeInder](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgofast/DerS%C3%BC%C3%9FeInder) $2.00 $441 220.4x 2026-11-07 11:46 UTC

[CSGOFAST](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgofast) [M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) [The Horizon Collection $2.00](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgofast/166) battle [yakudza](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgofast/yakudza) $2.00 $313 156.4x 2026-11-07 01:04 UTC

[Skin.club](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinclub) [M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) [Nightmare Mansion $1.58](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/nightmare-mansion) battle Hidden $1.56 $213 136.3x 2026-11-05 21:24 UTC

[Skin.club](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinclub) [M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) [Night Friday Lights $1.31](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/nfl) battle Hidden $1.30 $211 162.3x 2026-11-05 18:56 UTC

[Skin.club](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinclub) [M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) [Nightmare Mansion $1.58](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/nightmare-mansion) battle Hidden $1.55 $211 136.0x 2026-11-05 12:49 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?item=m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new&window=all)

[CSGOEmpire](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoempire) [M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) [Skeletal $30.01](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoempire/23ae23a8a49ba18366f8bc07b89b8851) battle Hidden $30.01 48.86 coins $37.18 60.52 coins 1.24x 2026-11-12 02:59 UTC

[Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) [M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) [10% RGB $5.00](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/10-rgb) battle Hidden $5.00 10 coins $26.67 53.34 coins 5.33x 2026-11-12 02:55 UTC

[CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) [M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) [Trick or Treat Baller $177](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/trick-or-treat-baller) battle Hidden $177 253 coins $186 266 coins 1.05x 2026-11-12 02:38 UTC

[CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) [M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) [Trick or Treat Baller $177](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/trick-or-treat-baller) battle Hidden $177 253 coins $186 266 coins 1.05x 2026-11-12 02:28 UTC

[Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) [M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) [Trick or Treat $14.55](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/trick-or-treat) battle Hidden $14.55 22.38 gems $108 166 gems 7.42x 2026-11-12 02:24 UTC

[Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) [M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) [Horizon Case $2.31](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/horizon-case) battle Hidden $2.31 3.55 gems $25.68 39.51 gems 11.13x 2026-11-12 02:23 UTC

[Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) [M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) [%9 sapphire $5.00](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/9-sapphire) battle Hidden $5.00 10 coins $26.67 53.34 coins 5.33x 2026-11-12 02:03 UTC

[Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) [M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) [%9 sapphire $5.00](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/9-sapphire) battle Hidden $5.00 10 coins $26.67 53.34 coins 5.33x 2026-11-12 02:02 UTC

[Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) [M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) [%9 sapphire $5.00](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/9-sapphire) battle Hidden $5.00 10 coins $26.67 53.34 coins 5.33x 2026-11-12 02:01 UTC

[Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) [M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) [10% RGB $5.00](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/10-rgb) battle [Jadegriggy](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Jadegriggy) $5.00 10 coins $26.67 53.34 coins 5.33x 2026-11-12 02:00 UTC

classified · Drops are counted once per sighting across every feed, notable-only feeds included. [All items →](https://gambatracker.com/items)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt