Spectral Arsenal
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$47.82
79,670 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $43.04 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
99.86%
205 openings, odds method
Variance
6.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
15.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 205 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Black Laminate (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 286 | $1,740 2,899,489 BUX | 14.2% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| ★ Karambit | Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · Covert | 1 in 38 | $408 679,961 BUX | 25.1% | 7 | 5.4 | 1.29× |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Lore (Well-Worn)knife · Covert | 12.0% | $102 169,965 BUX | 28.4% | 21 | 24.6 | 0.85× |
| StatTrak™ AWP | Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Covert | 20.0% | $40.30 67,139 BUX | 18.7% | 43 | 41.0 | 1.05× |
| Souvenir AK-47 | Black Laminate (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 25.0% | $22.04 36,718 BUX | 12.8% | 57 | 51.3 | 1.11× |
| USP-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 40.0% | $0.80 1,332 BUX | 0.7% | 76 | 82.0 | 0.93× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Black Laminate (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$47.8279,670 BUX$1,7402,899,489 BUX36.39x
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir AK-47 | Black Laminate (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$47.8279,670 BUX$22.0436,718 BUX0.46x
Souvenir AK-47 | Black Laminate (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec GradeKronerkongen$47.8279,670 BUX$22.0436,718 BUX0.46x
Souvenir AK-47 | Black Laminate (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$47.8279,670 BUX$22.0436,718 BUX0.46x
Souvenir AK-47 | Black Laminate (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$47.8279,670 BUX$22.0436,718 BUX0.46x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $47.82 | 90.00% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.4%Covert 34.7%Mil Spec Grade 25.0%restricted 40.0%best hit $1,740 (36.39x)