Wings of Victory
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$20.41
34,003 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $18.37 from 5 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.81%
42 openings, odds method
Variance
17.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 40
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
97.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 42 openings and 1.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 42 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sticker | Winged Defusersticker · High Grade | 1 in 100 | $594 989,337 BUX | 32.3% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 67 | $516 858,839 BUX | 42.1% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| AUG | Wings (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 15.0% | $20.28 33,786 BUX | 16.6% | 7 | 6.3 | 1.11× |
| StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Light Box (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 26.0% | $5.37 8,946 BUX | 7.6% | 9 | 10.9 | 0.82× |
| Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted | 56.5% | $0.46 766 BUX | 1.4% | 25 | 23.7 | 1.05× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Light Box (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Gradeuser-62df08$20.4134,003 BUX$5.378,946 BUX0.26x
StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Light Box (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$20.4134,003 BUX$5.378,946 BUX0.26x
Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricteduser-62df08$20.4134,003 BUX$0.46766 BUX0.02x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $20.41 | 90.00% | 5 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedHigh Grade 1.0%covert 1.5%mil spec 15.0%Mil Spec Grade 26.0%restricted 56.5%best hit $594 (29.10x)