Lava Eruption
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$14.56
24,253 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $13.10 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.22%
41 openings, odds method
Variance
4.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
11.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
76.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 41 openings and 4.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 41 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Karambit | Black Laminate (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 10,000 | $1,009 1,680,644 BUX | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · epic | 1 in 10,000 | $852 1,419,282 BUX | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $98.60 164,267 BUX | 37.6% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.49× |
| AK-47 | Vulcan (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 17 | $73.44 122,351 BUX | 33.5% | 4 | 2.5 | 1.63× |
| P2000 | Fire Elemental (Factory New)weapon · covert | 13.0% | $22.84 38,051 BUX | 22.7% | 5 | 5.3 | 0.94× |
| AWP | Black Nile (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 20.0% | $1.25 2,082 BUX | 1.9% | 9 | 8.2 | 1.10× |
| Sticker | Romanov's Fire (Foil)sticker · exotic | 23.0% | $0.70 1,166 BUX | 1.2% | 8 | 9.4 | 0.85× |
| StatTrak™ Nova | Wood Fired (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 33.0% | $0.65 1,082 BUX | 1.6% | 14 | 13.5 | 1.03× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Nova | Wood Fired (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$14.5624,253 BUX$0.651,082 BUX0.04x
StatTrak™ Nova | Wood Fired (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$14.5624,253 BUX$0.651,082 BUX0.04x
StatTrak™ Nova | Wood Fired (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$14.5624,253 BUX$0.651,082 BUX0.04x
StatTrak™ Nova | Wood Fired (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$14.5624,253 BUX$0.651,082 BUX0.04x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $14.56 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 24.0%epic 0.0%Mil Spec Grade 53.0%exotic 23.0%best hit —