Sanguine Shadows
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$11.92
19,863 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $10.73 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
77.22%
225 openings, odds method
Variance
3.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
16.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
71.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 225 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Bloodhound Gloves | Guerrilla (Factory New)gloves · Extraordinary | 1 in 1,000 | $352 587,031 BUX | 3.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ Moto Gloves | Blood Pressure (Field-Tested)gloves · Extraordinary | 1 in 143 | $158 263,994 BUX | 10.3% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.27× |
| StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert | 1 in 111 | $139 232,107 BUX | 11.7% | 0 | 2.0 | 0.00× |
| P90 | Cold Blooded (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 40 | $73.96 123,217 BUX | 17.2% | 4 | 5.6 | 0.71× |
| Sir Bloody Silent Darryl | The Professionalsagent · red | 11.8% | $14.50 24,157 BUX | 15.9% | 30 | 26.5 | 1.13× |
| StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Blood Tiger (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 13.0% | $12.23 20,375 BUX | 14.8% | 31 | 29.3 | 1.06× |
| USP-S | Blood Tiger (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 25.5% | $5.08 8,463 BUX | 12.1% | 61 | 57.4 | 1.06× |
| Sticker | First Blood (Holo)sticker · Remarkable | 45.5% | $3.45 5,747 BUX | 14.6% | 97 | 102.4 | 0.95× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Blood Tiger (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$11.9219,863 BUX$12.2320,375 BUX1.03x
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Blood Tiger (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec GradeKronerkongen$11.9219,863 BUX$12.2320,375 BUX1.03x
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Blood Tiger (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$11.9219,863 BUX$12.2320,375 BUX1.03x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $11.92 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedExtraordinary 0.8%Covert 0.9%classified 2.5%red 11.8%Mil Spec Grade 13.0%Rare 25.5%Remarkable 45.5%best hit —