Sandy Sabotage
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$11.83
19,713 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $10.65 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
67.64%
129 openings, odds method
Variance
3.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
11.2%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
88.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 129 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 256 | $153 254,214 BUX | 5.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| Glock-18 | Sand Dune (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 1 in 200 | $134 222,627 BUX | 6.3% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| ★ Nomad Knife | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)knife · Covert | 1 in 77 | $100 167,016 BUX | 12.2% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× |
| ★ Hand Wraps | Desert Shamagh (Battle-Scarred)gloves · Extraordinary | 1 in 22 | $52.30 87,131 BUX | 22.2% | 2 | 5.8 | 0.34× |
| AUG | Sand Storm (Minimal Wear)weapon · Restricted | 1 in 22 | $51.23 85,349 BUX | 21.8% | 7 | 5.8 | 1.20× |
| P90 | Desert Warfare (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 25.0% | $6.87 11,445 BUX | 16.1% | 35 | 32.3 | 1.09× |
| M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert | 25.0% | $5.79 9,646 BUX | 13.6% | 28 | 32.3 | 0.87× |
| P90 | Desert DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Consumer Grade | 38.8% | $0.59 982 BUX | 2.1% | 56 | 50.0 | 1.12× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 11 Nov, 22:23 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
P90 | Desert Warfare (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec Gradekdeen$11.8319,713 BUX$6.8711,445 BUX0.58x
★ Hand Wraps | Desert Shamagh (Battle-Scarred)gloves · Extraordinary$11.8319,713 BUX$52.3087,131 BUX4.42x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $11.83 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.4%industrial 0.5%Covert 1.3%Extraordinary 4.5%Restricted 4.5%Mil Spec Grade 25.0%covert 25.0%Consumer Grade 38.8%best hit —