Flaming Fury
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$8.75
14,574 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.01%
EV $7.87 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
83.38%
523 openings, odds method
Variance
4.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
12.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 523 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Karambit | Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · Covert | 1 in 3,333 | $408 679,961 BUX | 1.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| StatTrak™ AWP | Wildfire (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 526 | $262 437,191 BUX | 6.3% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert | 1 in 78 | $83.37 138,894 BUX | 13.6% | 8 | 6.7 | 1.20× |
| StatTrak™ P2000 | Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert | 1 in 67 | $79.59 132,596 BUX | 15.2% | 3 | 7.8 | 0.38× |
| Sticker | Copenhagen Flames (Gold) | Stockholm 2021sticker · Extraordinary | 1 in 11 | $14.09 23,473 BUX | 16.1% | 49 | 47.1 | 1.04× |
| StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Firestarter (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 13.0% | $10.51 17,509 BUX | 17.4% | 67 | 68.0 | 0.99× |
| Sticker | Firestarter (Holo)sticker · Rare | 23.0% | $4.54 7,563 BUX | 13.3% | 122 | 120.3 | 1.01× |
| Wildfire Pinpin · Remarkable | 25.0% | $3.05 5,081 BUX | 9.7% | 140 | 130.8 | 1.07× |
| StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Bunsen Burner (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 27.0% | $2.04 3,398 BUX | 7.0% | 133 | 141.2 | 0.94× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 11 Nov, 22:23 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Bunsen Burner (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$8.7514,574 BUX$2.043,398 BUX0.23x
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Bunsen Burner (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$8.7514,574 BUX$2.043,398 BUX0.23x
Sticker | Copenhagen Flames (Gold) | Stockholm 2021sticker · Extraordinary$8.7514,574 BUX$14.0923,473 BUX1.61x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.01%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $8.75 | 90.01% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedCovert 2.8%covert 0.2%Extraordinary 9.0%Mil Spec Grade 40.0%Rare 23.0%Remarkable 25.0%best hit —