Ethereal Haunt
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$11.64
19,390 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $10.48 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.29%
212 openings, odds method
Variance
3.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
11.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
78.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 212 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Shadow Daggersknife · covert | 1 in 32 | $126 210,599 BUX | 37.4% | 10 | 6.6 | 1.52× |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 13 | $28.89 48,130 BUX | 22.1% | 13 | 17.0 | 0.77× |
| Sticker | Team Spirit (Gold) | Stockholm 2021sticker · Extraordinary | 10.0% | $23.78 39,617 BUX | 22.7% | 10 | 21.2 | 0.47× |
| StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted | 13.0% | $10.07 16,776 BUX | 12.5% | 28 | 27.6 | 1.02× |
| Nova | Ghost Camo (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 18.0% | $1.80 2,998 BUX | 3.1% | 53 | 38.2 | 1.39× |
| StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Spirit Board (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 22.0% | $0.70 1,166 BUX | 1.5% | 43 | 46.6 | 0.92× |
| SG 553 | Phantom (Well-Worn)weapon · Restricted | 25.9% | $0.31 516 BUX | 0.8% | 55 | 54.9 | 1.00× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Spirit Board (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$11.6419,390 BUX$0.701,166 BUX0.06x
Sticker | Team Spirit (Gold) | Stockholm 2021sticker · Extraordinary$11.6419,390 BUX$23.7839,617 BUX2.04x
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$11.6419,390 BUX$10.0716,776 BUX0.87x
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Spirit Board (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Gradekomnuu$11.6419,390 BUX$0.701,166 BUX0.06x
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$11.6419,390 BUX$10.0716,776 BUX0.87x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $11.64 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 3.1%classified 8.0%Extraordinary 10.0%Restricted 38.9%mil spec 18.0%Mil Spec Grade 22.0%best hit —