Deceptive Dreams
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$19.51
32,497 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $17.56 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
104.56%
68 openings, odds method
Variance
3.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 13
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
83.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 68 openings and 5.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 68 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Hypnotic (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified | 1 in 13 | $138 230,507 BUX | 59.1% | 7 | 5.1 | 1.37× |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 11 | $28.89 48,130 BUX | 14.8% | 4 | 6.1 | 0.65× |
| MP9 | Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 16.5% | $9.43 15,710 BUX | 8.9% | 10 | 11.2 | 0.89× |
| AWP | Fever Dream (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 20.0% | $6.91 11,512 BUX | 7.9% | 13 | 13.6 | 0.96× |
| Sticker | Hypnotic Surf K (Foil)sticker · exotic | 23.5% | $3.50 5,831 BUX | 4.7% | 16 | 16.0 | 1.00× |
| SSG 08 | Mayan Dreams (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Industrial Grade | 23.5% | $3.48 5,797 BUX | 4.7% | 18 | 16.0 | 1.13× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 11 Nov, 22:23 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
SSG 08 | Mayan Dreams (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Industrial GradeKronerkongen$19.5132,497 BUX$3.485,797 BUX0.18x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $19.51 | 90.00% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedClassified 7.5%classified 29.0%restricted 16.5%exotic 23.5%Industrial Grade 23.5%best hit —