Medieval Might
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$30.91
51,489 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $27.82 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
50.18%
38 openings, odds method
Variance
19.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 13
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
78.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 38 openings and 2.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 38 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 2,000 | $4,731 7,882,229 BUX | 8.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Souvenir M4A1-S | Knight (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Classified | 1 in 222 | $1,227 2,044,115 BUX | 19.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| P90 | Emerald Dragon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 33 | $98.81 164,617 BUX | 10.7% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.88× |
| Glock-18 | Dragon Tattoo (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 25 | $81.90 136,445 BUX | 11.8% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 15 | $75.63 125,999 BUX | 17.7% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.81× |
| StatTrak™ M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified | 1 in 13 | $58.84 98,027 BUX | 15.9% | 3 | 2.9 | 1.05× |
| Sticker | Dragon Lore (Foil)sticker · exotic | 13.0% | $12.96 21,591 BUX | 6.1% | 5 | 4.9 | 1.01× |
| StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted | 15.0% | $10.07 16,776 BUX | 5.4% | 5 | 5.7 | 0.88× |
| Sealed Graffiti | Guardian Dragongraffiti · Exotic | 25.3% | $2.83 4,714 BUX | 2.6% | 8 | 9.6 | 0.83× |
| M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 25.3% | $1.78 2,965 BUX | 1.6% | 14 | 9.6 | 1.46× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedstrawhatya$30.9151,489 BUX$1.782,965 BUX0.06x
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$30.9151,489 BUX$10.0716,776 BUX0.33x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $30.91 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 6.6%Classified 8.0%classified 3.0%restricted 29.3%exotic 13.0%Restricted 15.0%Exotic 25.3%best hit —