Dead Reckoning

A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.

Price

$9.18

15,296 BUX

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $8.26 from 11 items

Observed RTP, 30d

69.90%

62 openings, odds method

Variance

10.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 25

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

82.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

52 openings · below min

30 days

62 openings · below min

since tracking started

62 openings · below min

-0.5%74.8%150.0%

Small sample. 62 openings and 2.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	52	59.24%±86.8	—	odds
30d	62	69.90%±79.5	—	odds
All	62	69.90%±79.5	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 62 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 200	$372 620,251 BUX	22.5%	0	0.3	—
Patch \| Dead Menpatch · remarkable	1 in 29	$73.52 122,484 BUX	31.1%	3	2.2	1.38×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Rising Skull (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 17	$22.88 38,118 BUX	16.6%	3	3.7	0.81×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 13	$10.07 16,776 BUX	9.1%	1	4.6	0.22×
P250 \| Bone Mask (Factory New)weapon · consumer	1 in 13	$5.41 9,013 BUX	5.2%	4	5.0	0.81×
Souvenir XM1014 \| Bone Machine (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 13	$5.17 8,613 BUX	5.0%	4	5.0	0.81×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Plague (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	11.5%	$3.12 5,197 BUX	4.3%	12	7.1	1.68×
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Skull Crusher (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	13.0%	$2.42 4,031 BUX	3.8%	2	8.1	0.25×
SSG 08 \| Necropos (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	14.0%	$0.47 783 BUX	0.8%	9	8.7	1.04×
XM1014 \| Zombie Offensive (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	14.0%	$0.46 766 BUX	0.8%	12	8.7	1.38×
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Bone Forged (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	14.0%	$0.36 599 BUX	0.6%	12	8.7	1.38×

Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from 500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.