Essentials Ensemble
A case on 500 Casino (featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.78
2,972 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.01%
EV $1.61 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
83.64%
2,723 openings, odds method
Variance
2.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
11.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
82.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 90.01% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (78.22% – 89.06%, 2,723 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,723 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Galil AR | Dusk Ruins (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 1 in 40 | $12.21 20,341 BUX | 19.0% | 60 | 68.1 | 0.88× |
| AWP | Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified | 1 in 29 | $10.42 17,359 BUX | 22.7% | 72 | 95.3 | 0.76× |
| MP9 | Setting Sun (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 18 | $3.55 5,914 BUX | 12.2% | 157 | 149.8 | 1.05× |
| StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Metal Flowers (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 1 in 17 | $3.02 5,031 BUX | 11.3% | 163 | 163.4 | 1.00× |
| StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 1 in 11 | $1.14 1,899 BUX | 6.4% | 244 | 245.1 | 1.00× |
| AUG | Plague (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 1 in 11 | $1.01 1,682 BUX | 6.0% | 257 | 258.7 | 0.99× |
| Tec-9 | Jambiya (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 14.0% | $0.82 1,366 BUX | 7.1% | 384 | 381.2 | 1.01× |
| CZ75-Auto | Framework (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade | 15.0% | $0.68 1,132 BUX | 6.3% | 394 | 408.4 | 0.96× |
| SSG 08 | Hand Brake (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 17.0% | $0.52 866 BUX | 5.5% | 491 | 462.9 | 1.06× |
| P90 | Teardown (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue | 18.0% | $0.31 516 BUX | 3.5% | 501 | 490.1 | 1.02× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Metal Flowers (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$1.782,972 BUX$3.025,031 BUX1.69x
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$1.782,972 BUX$1.141,899 BUX0.64x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.01%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $1.78 | 90.01% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedMil Spec Grade 58.0%Classified 3.5%mil spec 5.5%Consumer Grade 15.0%blue 18.0%best hit —