Bubble Blitz
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$19.61
32,673 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $17.65 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
80.41%
32 openings, odds method
Variance
3.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
11.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 32 openings and 3.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 32 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Bayonet | Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $271 450,702 BUX | 15.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| M4A1-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 1 in 20 | $70.57 117,569 BUX | 20.0% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.88× |
| FAMAS | Waters of Nephthys (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $70.24 117,019 BUX | 19.9% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.25× |
| StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Bright Water (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 1 in 17 | $52.41 87,315 BUX | 17.8% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.52× |
| SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 13 | $35.00 58,310 BUX | 15.9% | 1 | 2.6 | 0.39× |
| MAG-7 | Hard Water (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec | 36.5% | $3.62 6,030 BUX | 7.5% | 12 | 11.7 | 1.03× |
| PP-Bizon | Water Sigil (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 38.5% | $1.66 2,765 BUX | 3.6% | 13 | 12.3 | 1.06× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Bright Water (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedkomnuu$19.6132,673 BUX$52.4187,315 BUX2.67x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $19.61 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 9.0%restricted 11.0%classified 5.0%mil spec 75.0%best hit —