The Musical
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2.70
4,490 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $2.43 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.38%
1,245 openings, odds method
Variance
5.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
17.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
66.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,245 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Music Kit | Hundredth, FREEmusic kit · High GradeHALAMADRID$2.704,490 BUX$0.41683 BUX0.15x
StatTrak™ Music Kit | Knock2, dashstar*music kit · High GradeLudomanas$2.704,490 BUX$14.3723,940 BUX5.33x
StatTrak™ Music Kit | Beartooth, Aggressivemusic kit · High GradeLudomanas$2.704,490 BUX$0.42699 BUX0.16x
StatTrak™ Music Kit | Juelz, Shootersmusic kit · High GradeLudomanas$2.704,490 BUX$0.861,432 BUX0.32x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $2.70 | 90.00% | 16 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedCovert 0.5%High Grade 97.0%high 2.5%best hit —