Stealth Operations
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$13.51
22,504 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $12.16 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.72%
127 openings, odds method
Variance
6.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 127 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Karambit | Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 200 | $425 707,383 BUX | 17.5% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| ★ Nomad Knife | Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · Covert | 1 in 67 | $139 230,857 BUX | 17.1% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.52× |
| Desert Eagle | Urban DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 18.0% | $13.58 22,624 BUX | 20.1% | 21 | 22.9 | 0.92× |
| G3SG1 | Arctic Camo (Minimal Wear)weapon · Industrial Grade | 20.0% | $9.99 16,643 BUX | 16.4% | 26 | 25.4 | 1.02× |
| Souvenir UMP-45 | Urban DDPAT (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade | 25.0% | $8.16 13,594 BUX | 16.8% | 26 | 31.8 | 0.82× |
| Souvenir M4A4 | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade | 35.0% | $4.21 7,013 BUX | 12.1% | 52 | 44.4 | 1.17× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir M4A4 | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$13.5122,504 BUX$4.217,013 BUX0.31x
Souvenir M4A4 | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$13.5122,504 BUX$4.217,013 BUX0.31x
G3SG1 | Arctic Camo (Minimal Wear)weapon · Industrial Grademaxz9590$13.5122,504 BUX$9.9916,643 BUX0.74x
Souvenir M4A4 | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$13.5122,504 BUX$4.217,013 BUX0.31x
Desert Eagle | Urban DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · industrialキKing キ$13.5122,504 BUX$13.5822,624 BUX1.01x
Souvenir UMP-45 | Urban DDPAT (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$13.5122,504 BUX$8.1613,594 BUX0.60x
Souvenir M4A4 | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Gradeuser-a40f40$13.5122,504 BUX$4.217,013 BUX0.31x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $13.51 | 90.00% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.5%Covert 1.5%industrial 18.0%Industrial Grade 55.0%Consumer Grade 25.0%best hit —