Icebound Arsenal
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$9.72
16,199 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $8.75 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
83.49%
111 openings, odds method
Variance
4.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
19.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
64.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 111 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Driver Gloves | Snow Leopard (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 200 | $236 393,292 BUX | 13.5% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| G3SG1 | Arctic Camo (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 1 in 33 | $62.72 104,491 BUX | 21.5% | 4 | 3.3 | 1.20× |
| StatTrak™ AUG | Arctic Wolf (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 16.0% | $15.57 25,939 BUX | 28.5% | 19 | 17.8 | 1.07× |
| Galil AR | Winter Forest (Minimal Wear)weapon · Industrial Grade | 16.0% | $14.08 23,457 BUX | 25.7% | 18 | 17.8 | 1.01× |
| StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Winterized (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 32.3% | $1.85 3,082 BUX | 6.8% | 33 | 35.8 | 0.92× |
| UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 32.3% | $1.08 1,799 BUX | 4.0% | 37 | 35.8 | 1.03× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Winterized (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$9.7216,199 BUX$1.853,082 BUX0.19x
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Winterized (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$9.7216,199 BUX$1.853,082 BUX0.19x
Galil AR | Winter Forest (Minimal Wear)weapon · Industrial Grade$9.7216,199 BUX$14.0823,457 BUX1.45x
StatTrak™ AUG | Arctic Wolf (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricteduser-62df08$9.7216,199 BUX$15.5725,939 BUX1.60x
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Winterized (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$9.7216,199 BUX$1.853,082 BUX0.19x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $9.72 | 90.00% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.5%industrial 3.0%restricted 48.3%Industrial Grade 16.0%Mil Spec Grade 32.3%best hit —