Vibrant Velocity
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$15.80
26,327 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $14.22 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
120.23%
237 openings, odds method
Variance
4.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 90.00% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (94.43% – 146.03%, 237 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 237 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Rider (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 250 | $280 465,746 BUX | 7.9% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| Five-SeveN | Neon Kimono (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 200 | $244 406,404 BUX | 8.6% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.84× |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 32 | $128 212,931 BUX | 27.9% | 15 | 7.3 | 2.04× |
| StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 17 | $32.99 54,961 BUX | 13.9% | 11 | 14.2 | 0.77× |
| StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $12.87 21,441 BUX | 9.0% | 29 | 23.7 | 1.22× |
| Sticker | Neon Opal Strafe (Holo)sticker · remarkable | 20.0% | $8.67 14,444 BUX | 12.2% | 46 | 47.4 | 0.97× |
| MP7 | Neon Ply (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 60.0% | $4.87 8,113 BUX | 20.5% | 133 | 142.2 | 0.94× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$15.8026,327 BUX$12.8721,441 BUX0.81x
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedkdeen$15.8026,327 BUX$12.8721,441 BUX0.81x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$15.8026,327 BUX$128212,931 BUX8.09x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $15.80 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 9.5%restricted 70.5%remarkable 20.0%best hit —