Rainforest Rumble
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$8.65
14,403 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $7.78 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
248.98%
91 openings, odds method
Variance
29.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 14
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 91 openings and 6.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 91 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $1,443 2,403,721 BUX | 18.5% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| XM1014 | Jungle (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 1 in 29 | $47.57 79,251 BUX | 21.4% | 2 | 3.2 | 0.63× |
| Souvenir G3SG1 | Jungle Dashed (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade | 1 in 29 | $41.56 69,238 BUX | 18.7% | 4 | 3.2 | 1.26× |
| M249 | Jungle DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 1 in 13 | $13.45 22,407 BUX | 13.0% | 4 | 6.8 | 0.59× |
| Jungle Rebel | Elite Crewagent · distinguished | 1 in 13 | $7.87 13,111 BUX | 8.1% | 7 | 7.3 | 0.96× |
| AK-47 | Jungle Spray (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 11.6% | $4.38 7,297 BUX | 6.5% | 11 | 10.6 | 1.04× |
| M249 | Jungle (Minimal Wear)weapon · Consumer Grade | 12.9% | $3.20 5,331 BUX | 5.3% | 7 | 11.7 | 0.60× |
| Sawed-Off | Jungle Thicket (Minimal Wear)weapon · Consumer Grade | 12.9% | $3.16 5,264 BUX | 5.2% | 16 | 11.7 | 1.36× |
| StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Jungle Slipstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 40.0% | $0.63 1,049 BUX | 3.2% | 39 | 36.4 | 1.07× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$8.6514,403 BUX$1,4432,403,721 BUX166.9x
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Jungle Slipstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$8.6514,403 BUX$0.631,049 BUX0.07x
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Jungle Slipstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$8.6514,403 BUX$0.631,049 BUX0.07x
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Jungle Slipstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec GradePuzamah$8.6514,403 BUX$0.631,049 BUX0.07x
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Jungle Slipstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$8.6514,403 BUX$0.631,049 BUX0.07x
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Jungle Slipstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$8.6514,403 BUX$0.631,049 BUX0.07x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $8.65 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.1%consumer 11.0%Consumer Grade 29.3%distinguished 8.0%industrial 11.6%Mil Spec Grade 40.0%best hit $1,443 (166.9x)