Covert Operations
A case on 500 Casino (featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$30.46
50,744 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $27.41 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
79.08%
156 openings, odds method
Variance
3.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 12
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
84.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 156 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Paracord Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $283 470,778 BUX | 10.3% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.64× |
| Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Well-Worn)weapon · classified | 1 in 67 | $248 412,484 BUX | 13.5% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.28× |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert | 1 in 40 | $187 311,658 BUX | 17.1% | 3 | 3.9 | 0.77× |
| MAC-10 | Hot Snakes (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified | 1 in 29 | $137 228,008 BUX | 17.5% | 3 | 5.5 | 0.55× |
| StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Classified | 1 in 14 | $41.12 68,505 BUX | 10.5% | 10 | 10.9 | 0.92× |
| FAMAS | Afterimage (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $25.13 41,866 BUX | 9.2% | 15 | 15.6 | 0.96× |
| Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $24.16 40,250 BUX | 8.8% | 16 | 15.6 | 1.03× |
| SCAR-20 | Splash Jam (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 64.5% | $5.58 9,296 BUX | 13.1% | 105 | 100.6 | 1.04× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Well-Worn)weapon · classifiedKronerkongen$30.4650,744 BUX$248412,484 BUX8.13x
SCAR-20 | Splash Jam (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedKronerkongen$30.4650,744 BUX$5.589,296 BUX0.18x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $30.46 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 11.0%classified 76.0%Covert 2.5%Classified 10.5%best hit —