United Front
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$13.52
22,531 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $12.17 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
69.54%
58 openings, odds method
Variance
8.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
82.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 58 openings and 6.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 58 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUG | Akihabara Accept (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 250 | $557 928,661 BUX | 18.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| StatTrak™ M4A4 | Temukau (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 28 | $97.05 161,685 BUX | 28.7% | 3 | 2.1 | 1.44× |
| Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 15 | $38.89 64,790 BUX | 20.8% | 2 | 3.8 | 0.53× |
| M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 13 | $27.77 46,264 BUX | 17.1% | 2 | 4.3 | 0.46× |
| StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted | 14.0% | $3.34 5,564 BUX | 3.8% | 12 | 8.1 | 1.48× |
| Sticker | Tamara(Holo)sticker · remarkable | 17.0% | $2.45 4,081 BUX | 3.4% | 9 | 9.9 | 0.91× |
| Sticker | Ivette (Holo)sticker · Mythical | 17.0% | $2.13 3,548 BUX | 3.0% | 12 | 9.9 | 1.22× |
| Sticker | Sherry (Holo)sticker · Mythical | 17.0% | $1.94 3,232 BUX | 2.7% | 14 | 9.9 | 1.42× |
| Sticker | Kimberly (Holo)sticker · remarkable | 17.0% | $1.54 2,565 BUX | 2.2% | 4 | 9.9 | 0.41× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$13.5222,531 BUX$3.345,564 BUX0.25x
StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$13.5222,531 BUX$3.345,564 BUX0.25x
StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restrictedmaxz9590$13.5222,531 BUX$3.345,564 BUX0.25x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $13.52 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 18.0%Restricted 14.0%remarkable 34.0%Mythical 34.0%best hit —