Chilled Gems
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$22.42
37,344 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $20.17 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
76.90%
212 openings, odds method
Variance
11.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 32
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 212 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 1,250 | $1,726 2,875,582 BUX | 6.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 333 | $537 894,308 BUX | 8.0% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| ★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · Covert | 1 in 143 | $324 540,150 BUX | 11.2% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.67× |
| Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted | 1 in 100 | $261 434,792 BUX | 12.9% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.94× |
| SCAR-20 | Emerald (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 1 in 100 | $251 418,032 BUX | 12.4% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.47× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Covert | 1 in 77 | $205 340,813 BUX | 13.2% | 4 | 2.8 | 1.45× |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 20.6% | $22.31 37,168 BUX | 22.8% | 55 | 43.7 | 1.26× |
| StatTrak™ MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical | 35.0% | $4.66 7,763 BUX | 8.1% | 73 | 74.2 | 0.98× |
| SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified | 40.0% | $2.26 3,765 BUX | 4.5% | 76 | 84.8 | 0.90× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical$22.4237,344 BUX$4.667,763 BUX0.21x
StatTrak™ MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical$22.4237,344 BUX$4.667,763 BUX0.21x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified$22.4237,344 BUX$22.3137,168 BUX1.00x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedKronerkongen$22.4237,344 BUX$22.3137,168 BUX1.00x
StatTrak™ MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical$22.4237,344 BUX$4.667,763 BUX0.21x
SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedKronerkongen$22.4237,344 BUX$2.263,765 BUX0.10x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $22.42 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.4%Covert 2.0%restricted 2.0%classified 60.6%Mythical 35.0%best hit —