Precious Prism
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$13.88
23,119 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $12.49 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
119.96%
120 openings, odds method
Variance
23.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 32
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
93.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 120 openings and 3.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 120 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert | 1 in 500 | $998 1,661,918 BUX | 16.0% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ Driver Gloves | Diamondback (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 250 | $772 1,286,451 BUX | 24.7% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| StatTrak™ M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Covert | 1 in 40 | $62.52 104,158 BUX | 12.5% | 5 | 3.0 | 1.67× |
| XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Field-Tested)weapon · Restricted | 1 in 30 | $50.04 83,366 BUX | 13.2% | 3 | 4.0 | 0.76× |
| StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Judgement of Anubis (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Covert | 11.7% | $10.79 17,976 BUX | 10.1% | 17 | 14.0 | 1.21× |
| Sticker | Infinite Diamond (Holo)sticker · Remarkable | 18.9% | $5.33 8,879 BUX | 8.1% | 29 | 22.7 | 1.28× |
| StatTrak™ Music Kit | Mord Fustang, Diamondsmusic kit · High Grade | 21.0% | $3.26 5,431 BUX | 5.5% | 23 | 25.2 | 0.91× |
| StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Corinthian (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 21.0% | $3.13 5,214 BUX | 5.3% | 23 | 25.2 | 0.91× |
| Sticker | Blue Gem (Glitter)sticker · remarkable | 21.0% | $2.76 4,598 BUX | 4.6% | 19 | 25.2 | 0.75× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Covert$13.8823,119 BUX$62.52104,158 BUX4.51x
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Judgement of Anubis (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Covert$13.8823,119 BUX$10.7917,976 BUX0.78x
StatTrak™ Music Kit | Mord Fustang, Diamondsmusic kit · High Grade$13.8823,119 BUX$3.265,431 BUX0.23x
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Corinthian (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$13.8823,119 BUX$3.135,214 BUX0.23x
StatTrak™ Music Kit | Mord Fustang, Diamondsmusic kit · High Grade$13.8823,119 BUX$3.265,431 BUX0.23x
Sticker | Infinite Diamond (Holo)sticker · RemarkableKronerkongen$13.8823,119 BUX$5.338,879 BUX0.38x
StatTrak™ Music Kit | Mord Fustang, Diamondsmusic kit · High Grade$13.8823,119 BUX$3.265,431 BUX0.23x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $13.88 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedCovert 14.4%extraordinary 0.4%Restricted 3.3%Remarkable 18.9%High Grade 21.0%Mil Spec Grade 21.0%remarkable 21.0%best hit $998 (71.89x)