Dream Weaver
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$9.98
16,626 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $8.98 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.76%
127 openings, odds method
Variance
1.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
16.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
68.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 127 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Nightmare (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Classified | 1 in 50 | $40.23 67,023 BUX | 9.0% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.79× |
| USP-S | Ancient Visions (Factory New)weapon · Restricted | 1 in 50 | $39.22 65,340 BUX | 8.7% | 5 | 2.5 | 1.97× |
| SSG 08 | Mayan Dreams (Factory New)weapon · Industrial Grade | 1 in 25 | $37.67 62,758 BUX | 16.8% | 6 | 5.1 | 1.18× |
| StatTrak™ AWP | Fever Dream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified | 1 in 13 | $25.03 41,699 BUX | 22.3% | 6 | 10.2 | 0.59× |
| StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted | 16.0% | $10.07 16,776 BUX | 17.9% | 22 | 20.3 | 1.08× |
| P250 | Visions (Factory New)weapon · #d32ee6 | 17.5% | $8.38 13,961 BUX | 16.3% | 18 | 22.2 | 0.81× |
| StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted | 22.5% | $2.71 4,514 BUX | 6.8% | 26 | 28.6 | 0.91× |
| StatTrak™ SG 553 | Phantom (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted | 28.0% | $0.70 1,166 BUX | 2.2% | 42 | 35.6 | 1.18× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$9.9816,626 BUX$10.0716,776 BUX1.01x
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Phantom (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$9.9816,626 BUX$0.701,166 BUX0.07x
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Phantom (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$9.9816,626 BUX$0.701,166 BUX0.07x
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Phantom (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$9.9816,626 BUX$0.701,166 BUX0.07x
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restrictedkomnuu$9.9816,626 BUX$10.0716,776 BUX1.01x
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$9.9816,626 BUX$10.0716,776 BUX1.01x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $9.98 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedClassified 10.0%Restricted 68.5%Industrial Grade 4.0%#d32ee6 17.5%best hit —