Springtime Surprise
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$6.94
11,559 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $6.24 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.30%
458 openings, odds method
Variance
4.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 22
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 458 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Five-SeveN | Crimson Blossom (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 1 in 67 | $74.64 124,350 BUX | 17.9% | 6 | 6.9 | 0.87× |
| StatTrak™ M4A4 | In Living Color (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Covert | 1 in 67 | $72.90 121,451 BUX | 17.5% | 2 | 6.9 | 0.29× |
| MP7 | Teal Blossom (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 1 in 67 | $72.33 120,501 BUX | 17.4% | 11 | 6.9 | 1.60× |
| SG 553 | Desert Blossom (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 15.0% | $12.62 21,024 BUX | 30.3% | 69 | 68.7 | 1.00× |
| Sticker | Killjoy (Holo)sticker · Remarkable | 18.5% | $2.56 4,264 BUX | 7.6% | 85 | 84.7 | 1.00× |
| Patch | Chicken Loverpatch · Remarkable | 20.5% | $1.01 1,682 BUX | 3.3% | 82 | 93.9 | 0.87× |
| SSG 08 | Spring Twilly (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 20.5% | $0.99 1,649 BUX | 3.2% | 98 | 93.9 | 1.04× |
| Sticker | Headless Chickensticker · High Grade | 21.0% | $0.81 1,349 BUX | 2.7% | 105 | 96.2 | 1.09× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $6.94 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedMil Spec Grade 23.5%Covert 1.5%mil spec 15.0%Remarkable 39.0%High Grade 21.0%best hit —