Pathfinder's Pack
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$14.24
23,724 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $12.82 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
105.15%
120 openings, odds method
Variance
12.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 120 openings and 3.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 120 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $886 1,476,425 BUX | 6.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Kukri Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · Covert | 1 in 250 | $527 878,265 BUX | 16.5% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| Souvenir AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade | 1 in 40 | $164 273,773 BUX | 32.1% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.00× |
| USP-S | Ancient Visions (Factory New)weapon · Restricted | 1 in 17 | $39.22 65,340 BUX | 18.4% | 8 | 7.2 | 1.11× |
| XM1014 | Ancient Lore (Field-Tested)weapon · Restricted | 1 in 17 | $35.93 59,859 BUX | 16.8% | 9 | 7.2 | 1.25× |
| StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Off World (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec | 13.0% | $3.57 5,947 BUX | 3.6% | 11 | 15.6 | 0.71× |
| G3SG1 | Ancient Ritual (Field-Tested)weapon · blueLight | 15.5% | $2.61 4,348 BUX | 3.2% | 24 | 18.6 | 1.29× |
| Sticker | Ancient Beast (Foil)sticker · Exotic | 18.5% | $0.88 1,466 BUX | 1.3% | 20 | 22.2 | 0.90× |
| P90 | Ancient Earth (Field-Tested)weapon · gray | 19.0% | $0.46 766 BUX | 0.7% | 19 | 22.8 | 0.83× |
| Sticker | Ancient Maraudersticker · High Grade | 19.0% | $0.45 749 BUX | 0.7% | 25 | 22.8 | 1.10× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Off World (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$14.2423,724 BUX$3.575,947 BUX0.25x
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Off World (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$14.2423,724 BUX$3.575,947 BUX0.25x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $14.24 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.1%Covert 0.4%Industrial Grade 2.5%Restricted 12.0%mil spec 13.0%blueLight 15.5%Exotic 18.5%gray 19.0%High Grade 19.0%best hit $527 (37.02x)