Detonation Delight
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$4.93
8,221 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $4.44 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
74.23%
1,203 openings, odds method
Variance
19.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
78.1%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,203 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ AWP | BOOM (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified | 1 in 1,000 | $575 958,416 BUX | 13.0% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× |
| ★ Moto Gloves | Boom! (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 133 | $142 235,988 BUX | 23.9% | 4 | 9.0 | 0.44× |
| Tec-9 | Blast From the Past (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 1 in 12 | $11.58 19,292 BUX | 22.2% | 95 | 102.3 | 0.93× |
| Sergeant Bombson | SWATagent · violet | 12.5% | $5.19 8,646 BUX | 14.6% | 151 | 150.4 | 1.00× |
| Sticker | Bomb Squad (Foil)sticker · High Grade | 13.6% | $3.60 5,997 BUX | 11.0% | 151 | 163.0 | 0.93× |
| Music Kit | Ki:Theory, MOLOTOVmusic kit · high | 16.1% | $1.65 2,748 BUX | 6.0% | 189 | 194.3 | 0.97× |
| Sticker | Bomb Dogesticker · blue | 16.1% | $1.21 2,015 BUX | 4.4% | 194 | 194.3 | 1.00× |
| Sticker | Bomb Codesticker · High Grade | 16.1% | $0.92 1,532 BUX | 3.3% | 219 | 194.3 | 1.13× |
| Sticker | Go Boom (Glitter)sticker · remarkable | 16.1% | $0.45 749 BUX | 1.6% | 199 | 194.3 | 1.02× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Tec-9 | Blast From the Past (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mil Spec Grade$4.938,221 BUX$11.5819,292 BUX2.35x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $4.93 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedClassified 0.1%extraordinary 0.8%Mil Spec Grade 8.5%violet 12.5%High Grade 29.7%high 16.1%blue 16.1%remarkable 16.1%best hit $575 (116.6x)