Festive Frenzy
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$14.92
24,857 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $13.43 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.89%
64 openings, odds method
Variance
9.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 13
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
82.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 64 openings and 4.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 64 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Gut Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 133 | $464 772,424 BUX | 25.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Nightwish (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 44 | $144 239,204 BUX | 24.1% | 3 | 1.4 | 2.08× |
| ★ Driver Gloves | Overtake (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 22 | $73.40 122,284 BUX | 24.6% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.69× |
| StatTrak™ FAMAS | Djinn (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified | 10.0% | $25.34 42,216 BUX | 18.9% | 9 | 6.4 | 1.41× |
| SSG 08 | Abyss (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 15.0% | $2.29 3,815 BUX | 2.6% | 10 | 9.6 | 1.04× |
| StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Directive (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted | 22.5% | $1.15 1,915 BUX | 1.9% | 12 | 14.4 | 0.83× |
| StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Bamboozle (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted | 22.5% | $0.81 1,349 BUX | 1.4% | 10 | 14.4 | 0.69× |
| StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Wraiths (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec | 22.5% | $0.44 733 BUX | 0.7% | 18 | 14.4 | 1.25× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Bamboozle (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$14.9224,857 BUX$0.811,349 BUX0.05x
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Bamboozle (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$14.9224,857 BUX$0.811,349 BUX0.05x
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Bamboozle (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$14.9224,857 BUX$0.811,349 BUX0.05x
StatTrak™ FAMAS | Djinn (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classifiedstrawhatya$14.9224,857 BUX$25.3442,216 BUX1.70x
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Wraiths (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$14.9224,857 BUX$0.44733 BUX0.03x
StatTrak™ FAMAS | Djinn (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified$14.9224,857 BUX$25.3442,216 BUX1.70x
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Directive (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Restrictedkdeen$14.9224,857 BUX$1.151,915 BUX0.08x
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Wraiths (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$14.9224,857 BUX$0.44733 BUX0.03x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $14.92 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 3.0%extraordinary 4.5%Classified 10.0%mil spec 37.5%Restricted 45.0%best hit —